The visit of the Rais of Tatarstan in Egypt reflects a structured sub-federal economic diplomacy channel embedded within wider Russian efforts to merge influence across the Middle East and North Africa through trade, industrial integration, and institutional platforms.
The United States has adopted a cohesive regional approach in Central Asia, aiming to safeguard vital mineral supply chains and develop alternative trade routes because of significant disruptions in Iranian and Russian transit.
In Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), maintaining operational security is essential. Virtualisation and operating systems such as TraceLabs OSINT VM can support the analyst in daily activities safeguarding its security and physical machine.
Russia uses the Caucasus Investment Forum 2026 to project economic confidence, consolidate federal control, and attract non‑Western capital into the North Caucasus.
This report outlines a selection of OSINT tools that collectively enhance situational awareness, support escalation analysis, and strengthen the fidelity of assessments related to Iran’s domestic, regional, and cyber activities.
Armenia’s leadership is attempting to rebalance its foreign policy between Russia and the West ahead of pivotal June 2026 elections, but Moscow’s warnings and tightening leverage signal a narrowing space for Yerevan’s strategic manoeuvre.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s approval of a dedicated Islamic finance law on 27 March 2026 marks a decisive inflection point in Uzbekistan’s financial evolution.
This report provides an overview of 6 OSINT tools useful for Maritime Intelligence activities and geopolitical risk monitoring.
Maritime Intelligence represents the systematic collection, evaluation, and dissemination of data concerning activities, entities, and environmental conditions within the global maritime domain.
This report examines the divergent state strategies regarding Islam in Russia and Central Asia, specifically the “instrumentalisation” of religious identity for geopolitical expansion and the systematic “limitation” of faith to ensure domestic autocratic stability.
This report outlines how geopolitical intelligence serves as the “map” for international operations, providing the clarity required for corporate solutions.
In 2026, the Eurasian maritime environment is experiencing significant instability because of the breakdown of emerging local tensions and disputes and the US-Israel conflict with Iran, affecting the Persian Gulf.
This report evaluates the strategic implications of Tajikistan’s 2026 agreement with China to construct new border infrastructure using Chinese grant funding.
The recent manifesto by the Cyber Jihad Movement (CJM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, signals a strategic shift toward digitised attrition against Eurasian regional state infrastructures.
This report identifies the military intelligence advantages China secures from providing Tehran with military equipment amidst the war between US-Israeli forces and Iran.
The report identifies four open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools useful to examining US-Israel war against Iran and the situation in the Middle East.
Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz, and major aviation hubs in the UAE went offline following US-Israeli military attacks against Tehran.
The recent terrorist attack in Moscow has generated a dichotomy of narratives: while Russian sources have posited a Ukrainian connection, an unofficial media entity linked to the Islamic State Caucasus Province has claimed responsibility for the attack.
This report evaluates the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s contemporary strategies for cultivating human intelligence assets within Iran.
Al-Furqan Media has released new audio content that outlines the Islamic State’s hierarchy for regional operations and its primary narratives.
Belarus has pursued direct economic engagement with the Taliban-led Afghan government, prioritising machinery, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure projects.
In 2026, the Eurasian security framework encounters a phase of systemic volatility, marked by the dissolution of conventional counter-terrorism collaborations and the proliferation of hybrid warfare strategies contingent on narrative manipulation.
The Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) recently published Voice of Khorasan Issue 38 in Pashto (Khorasan Ghag) language, demonstrating a deliberate recalibration of its propaganda activity across linguistic lines.
Russian Deputy Defence Minister Vasily Osmakov and Taliban Deputy Defence Minister Mohammad Farid met in Moscow on 29 January 2026 to formalise military cooperation.
This report assess the security and terrorism risks in Iraq in the last year related to the Islamic State’s activities, the situation in Syria, and increasing activity of Iran-aligned militia groups.
The Russian Federal Security Service’s neutralisation of two Islamic State supporters in Dagestan underscored the persistent security threats within the North Caucasian region and the capacity of extremist propaganda and recruitment networks to infiltrate local communities.
Executive Summary This report examines the 26 January 2026 detention and expulsion of British national Kuldip Singh by the Abkhaz State Security Service (SGB) for suspected espionage.
The Islamic State, via al-Naba 531, continues its propaganda campaign focused on recent developments in Syria to undermine the al-Sharaa government’s authority, especially during its handover of high-security detention centres.
The Islamic State terrorist attack at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul confirms the Taliban’s inability to control the territory and undermines the Chinese economic interests in the country.
The Islamic State has launched a strategic ideological offensive via the editorial of al-Naba Issue 530, specifically designed to exploit domestic fractures following President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s issuance of Decree No. 13.
The Caucasus region enters 2026 in a state of profound transformation, characterised by the shift from traditional “frozen conflicts” to a high-stakes competition over transcontinental trade corridors.
In her latest monograph, Extremism and Hooliganism in the Western Balkans, Prof. Dr Marija Djoric invites the reader into what she aptly describes as a “Bermuda Triangle” of social phenomena—the Balkans, extremism, and hooliganism.
The CARVER Matrix provides a rigorous analytical framework for military intelligence, special operations planning, and strategic targeting.
Executive Summary This report assesses the recent disruption of a terrorist plot in Maikop, Republic of Adygea, by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Il presente report valuta il rischio geopolitico in Medio Oriente per il 2026, un anno che potrebbe essere caratterizzato dalla precaria “pace armata” a seguito dell’escalation militare tra Israele e Iran del 2025 e dal primo anniversario della transizione siriana.
This report evaluates the Middle East’s geopolitical risk for 2026, a year defined by the precarious “armed peace” following the 2025 Israel-Iran kinetic escalation and the first anniversary of the Syrian transition.
This report evaluates the December 2025 release of the Trace Labs OSINT Virtual Machine (VM) and its application in the field of online investigation.
Central Asia will enter 2026 with relative surface stability because of better regional coordination and no immediate interstate conflict.
The report assesses Russian security by analysing recent data from the FSB and NAC regarding terrorism threats and violent trends within the nation in 2025.
Islamic State has recently published Issue 525 of al-Naba, whose editorial condemns the recent developments in Syria and the current government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and exhorts local Muslims to fight against a leadership described as ‘an instrument of foreign powers.’
This report analyses the economic and strategic conversations held between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan in Mazar-i-Sharif focused on bilateral trade, humanitarian aid, and the strengthening of transit corridors.
The following report presents some of the most common roles within the intelligence community, analysing their core functions and the skills and dispositions essential for effective execution.
SpecialEurasia engaged Alberto Frigerio, Full Professors at Narxoz University in Almaty, in order to improve understanding of Central Asia and its changing dynamics.
This report identifies the events and regional forums that merit persistent monitoring because they produce high-value, open-source indicators of Russian strategy.
The world of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) has undergone a profound transformation since the beginning of the 21st century and the affirmation of the Internet. What are the current challenges and trends?
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
Geopolitics — the examination of how geography, power, and political interests influence global outcomes — is now essential for financial decision-making.
This report assesses the function and importance of the intelligence cycle within consulting, concentrating on its methodical phases, practical advantages for analysts and clients, and its strategic relevance in intricate and unstable context.
La visita ufficiale del Presidente del Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, a Roma il 24 ottobre 2025 rappresenta un momento di rilievo nella proiezione internazionale di Ashgabat e nel rafforzamento dell’impegno dell’Italia in Asia centrale.
Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov arrived in Rome on October 24, 2025, for a state visit that involves a meeting with Italian leaders, attendance at a business forum, and the opening of an archaeological exhibition at the Musei Capitolini.
This report defines military intelligence, outlines its significance for commanders and policymakers, details its organization and implementation, and differentiates between the primary intelligence operational levels: strategic, operational, and tactical.
This report examines the recent meeting in Kabul between Mullah Baradar and representatives of Russian companies focused on investments in the mining sector.
The State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) detained three Georgian nationals in Adjara on 13 October 2025 for alleged affiliation with the so-called “Takbirist Jamaat”, a group ideologically aligned with the Islamic State.
L’escalation militare tra Afghanistan e Pakistan, sebbene parzialmente contenuta grazie all’intervento di attori esterni, quali Qatar e Arabia Saudita, rappresenta un problema persistente e crescente, con potenziali ripercussioni sulla stabilità regionale.
This report assesses the recent escalation of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly border clashes and alleged Pakistani air strikes near Kabul. It examines the causes, implications, and regional consequences of these confrontations.
This report investigates the Republic of Abkhazia’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to inform policymakers and analysts on short- to medium-term geopolitical and economic risk.
The International Forum on “Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories,” convened in Makhachkala on 1–3 October 2025, constitutes a significant demonstration of Moscow’s intent to promote Dagestan’s economy and integrate the North Caucasian republic into multilateral Eurasian frameworks.
This report examines the connection between Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the US to control Bagram Air Base and the changing political and economic landscape of Afghanistan.
Russia and Belarus conducted the joint strategic exercise “Zapad-2025” from 12 to 16 September across 41 land and maritime training areas in both countries.
This article provides guidance on the skills, structures, and methods required to produce effective intelligence reports.
This report assesses the strategic and economic implications of the first meeting of Central Asian special representatives on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan on 26 August 2025.
This report analyses China’s recent diplomatic and economic activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with a focus on agreements that aim to boost trade, security collaboration, and infrastructure development.
This report examines the definition, scope, and relevance of geopolitical risk, identifies its key categories, and reviews recent global cases that illustrate its implications. It also provides a set of indicators to monitor to detect early warning signals.
This report investigates the geopolitical and regional outcomes and implications of the joint Armenia–US military exercises, Eagle Partner 2025, focusing on Yerevan’s domestic and external constraints and Russian leverages.
Executive Summary This report examines the Taliban-led Afghan government’s decision to launch a $10 billion energy infrastructure project with Azizi Energy. The initiative seeks to build 10,000 megawatts of electricity capacity in the next ten years to lessen reliance on imported energy and meet domestic needs. It also has political aims, such as increasing control […]
Central Asia faces a growing natural gas shortage because of the increasing population and insufficient infrastructure.
Uzbekistan concluded a week-long joint military exercise with the Russian Federation, named Hamkorlik-2025, from 15 to 21 July 2025 in Surxondaryo Region.
This report assesses the strategic credibility, practical feasibility, and geopolitical implications of the planned Chinese investment trip to Chechnya in July 2025.
Geopolitics in the Caucasus is constantly shifting, showing both division and lasting patterns. Despite pressure and diplomatic confrontation, particularly with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia retains influence in the South Caucasus through economic and cultural ties.
North Korea has significantly enhanced its economic position through unprecedented military and economic collaboration with the Russian Federation.
This report highlights the significant increase in narcotics trafficking and related law enforcement operations across Central Asia, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
This report analyses the geopolitical consequences of Russia officially recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in July 2025. This decision highlights Moscow’s intention to expand its influence in Central and South Asia.
This report examines the temporary suspension of multiple OSINT Telegram channels, with a focus on those affiliated with Ukraine, alongside the disruption of various Telegram and WhatsApp accounts, and assesses the resulting geopolitical and intelligence implications.
This report assesses the key ideological and operational narratives presented in the 500th issue of Al-Naba, the Islamic State’s official publication, considering the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict.
Within the larger context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, this report studies Russia’s current geopolitical manoeuvring in the Arab and Muslim world. Russia could use the conflict to strengthen ties with Arab and Muslim nations.
This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa. In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities.
This report outlines the contents of a leaked eight-page planning document by the FSB’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO), which describes China as a significant intelligence threat to the Russian Federation.
This report assesses Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s official visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in May 2025 and its participation in the first “Central Asia + Italy” summit as well as imperative and constraints of Rome’s engagement in the region.
This report provides an analytical assessment of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) based on developments presented at the Kavkaz Investment Forum 2025, recent macroeconomic data, and ongoing geopolitical dynamics.
SpecialEurasia ha incontrato l’Ambasciatore della Repubblica del Kazakhstan presso la Repubblica Italiana, S.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, per approfondire la conoscenza di questa repubblica dell’Asia centrale a seguito della recente visita del Presidente italiano Sergio Mattarellae del primo vertice UE-Asia Centrale che si è svolto agli anizi di aprile 2025.
SpecialEurasia met with the Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy, H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, to acquire deeper insight into this Central Asian republic following the recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Astana and the first EU–Central Asia summit held in early April 2025.
This report examines the resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the latest issue of al-Naba, a response to his attempts to engage with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. . The report details internal security threats, geopolitical shifts, and the dangers of jihadist insurgency.
The report examines Tatarstan’s political, economic, and security landscape in Russia’s outreach to Muslim-majority states. KazanForum 2025 demonstrates Moscow’s shift toward non-Western partnerships, with Tatarstan acting as a facilitator of these relations.
James Fairgrieve’s Geography and World Power, first published in 1915, remains a critical reference for those seeking to understand the geographical determinants of political power. This book offers a historically informed analysis of geography’s impact on state building, military strategy, and global power.
This report provides an assessment of confirmed cyber activity targeting US critical infrastructure operational technology (OT) environments. It outlines current threat actor behaviour, key vulnerabilities, and specific defensive actions recommended by both government agencies and private sector specialists.
This report evaluates the recent armed attack in Makhachkala within the broader context of persistent terrorist activity in the Republic of Dagestan. It assesses the tactical and strategic implications of recent violence targeting security forces and the state’s response capacity.
This report aims to assess the role of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) within the broader discipline of Corporate Intelligence (CI), evaluating its critical value, current applications, and future opportunities. The report stresses that private and public institutions must integrate OSINT into their corporate intelligence to maintain agility, resilience, and competitiveness.
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
This report briefly describes the recent terrorist threats in Russia in April 2025 and underlines that international jihadist networks, aided by online propaganda and transnational collaboration, still create a persistent and multifaceted terrorist threat.
The Islamic State has issued a new propaganda video denouncing the Syrian transitional leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, to be apostate and illegitimate under Islamic law. This report analyse the video’s narrative and its impact on Syrian and regional security.
This report examines the recent arrests of ethnic Tajik Taliban commanders in northern Afghanistan, highlighting emerging internal rifts within the movement, particularly between the Kandahar leadership and the Haqqani Network, and potential instability in historically restive regions, such as Takhar and Badakhshan.
The eighth ministerial meeting between Russia and the five Central Asian states, held in Almaty on April 11, 2025, highlights Moscow’s ongoing efforts to consolidate strategic influence across its southern periphery. This report wants to assess the status of Russia-Central Asia relations and Moscow’s strategy to exploit multilateralism and security cooperation to influence Central Asian republics and counter the recent first EU-Central Asia summit.
This report explains the useful ways to gather information from the deep and dark web, focusing on how this helps fight terrorism and cybercrime. It addresses definitions, strategic considerations, legal frameworks, operational security, and technical tools utilised in dark web investigations.
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
Intelligence analysts must assess the credibility, reliability, and intent behind information sources to mitigate these threats. The SCAME framework provides a systematic approach to evaluating media content and influence campaigns.
To explore the critical role of intelligence and geopolitics in contemporary security environments, SpecialEurasia met with Max Taylor, the Intelligence Manager at Intelligence Fusion.
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
This report aims to analyse the recent developments regarding Uzbekistan’s military modernisation efforts, as outlined in the presidential address on February 21st, 2025. The country is considering how to incorporate new technologies, such as drones, artificial intelligence, and automated control systems, into its military forces.
SpecialEurasia met with Mark Youngman to discuss his recent report “Terrorism and counterterrorism in the North Caucasus: 2024 trends” considering his vast experience as an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and independent researcher.