Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
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Prospective U.S. Air Base in Syria: Strategic Implications, Risks and Regional Impact
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
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Geopolitics’ Strategic Value in Finance and Investment Portfolio Management
Geopolitics — the examination of how geography, power, and political interests influence global outcomes — is now essential for financial decision-making.
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The Importance of the Intelligence Cycle in Consulting
This report assesses the function and importance of the intelligence cycle within consulting, concentrating on its methodical phases, practical advantages for analysts and clients, and its strategic relevance in intricate and unstable context.
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Relazioni Italia–Turkmenistan: visita di Stato del Presidente Serdar Berdimuhamedov a Roma
La visita ufficiale del Presidente del Turkmenistan, Serdar Berdimuhamedov, a Roma il 24 ottobre 2025 rappresenta un momento di rilievo nella proiezione internazionale di Ashgabat e nel rafforzamento dell’impegno dell’Italia in Asia centrale.
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Turkmenistan President’s Official Visit to Rome: Why Matters?
Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov arrived in Rome on October 24, 2025, for a state visit that involves a meeting with Italian leaders, attendance at a business forum, and the opening of an archaeological exhibition at the Musei Capitolini.
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What Is Military Intelligence and Why It Matters
This report defines military intelligence, outlines its significance for commanders and policymakers, details its organization and implementation, and differentiates between the primary intelligence operational levels: strategic, operational, and tactical.
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Afghanistan: the Taliban Discussed Investments in Mining Sector with Russian Companies
This report examines the recent meeting in Kabul between Mullah Baradar and representatives of Russian companies focused on investments in the mining sector.
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Arrest of Islamic State-Linked Individuals in Adjara, Georgia
The State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) detained three Georgian nationals in Adjara on 13 October 2025 for alleged affiliation with the so-called “Takbirist Jamaat”, a group ideologically aligned with the Islamic State.
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Escalation tra Afghanistan e Pakistan: Conflitti Transfrontalieri, Attacchi Aerei e Implicazioni Regionali
L’escalation militare tra Afghanistan e Pakistan, sebbene parzialmente contenuta grazie all’intervento di attori esterni, quali Qatar e Arabia Saudita, rappresenta un problema persistente e crescente, con potenziali ripercussioni sulla stabilità regionale.
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Afghanistan-Pakistan Escalating Tensions: Cross-Border Clashes, Air Strikes, and Regional Implications
This report assesses the recent escalation of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly border clashes and alleged Pakistani air strikes near Kabul. It examines the causes, implications, and regional consequences of these confrontations.
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Abkhazia SWOT Analysis
This report investigates the Republic of Abkhazia’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to inform policymakers and analysts on short- to medium-term geopolitical and economic risk.
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Dagestan and the International Forum on Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories: Why Matters?
The International Forum on “Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories,” convened in Makhachkala on 1–3 October 2025, constitutes a significant demonstration of Moscow’s intent to promote Dagestan’s economy and integrate the North Caucasian republic into multilateral Eurasian frameworks.
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United States’ Aspiration on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan: Risk Assessment
This report examines the connection between Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the US to control Bagram Air Base and the changing political and economic landscape of Afghanistan.
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Russia-Belarus Joint Military Exercise “Zapad-2025”: Intel Briefing
Russia and Belarus conducted the joint strategic exercise “Zapad-2025” from 12 to 16 September across 41 land and maritime training areas in both countries.
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Intelligence Report Writing: Useful Guidelines
This article provides guidance on the skills, structures, and methods required to produce effective intelligence reports.
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Central Asian Special Representatives on Afghanistan’s Meeting: Why Matters?
This report assesses the strategic and economic implications of the first meeting of Central Asian special representatives on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan on 26 August 2025.
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China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s Engagement: Considering Economic Prospects and Security Constraints
This report analyses China’s recent diplomatic and economic activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with a focus on agreements that aim to boost trade, security collaboration, and infrastructure development.
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What is Geopolitical Risk and Why it Matters
This report examines the definition, scope, and relevance of geopolitical risk, identifies its key categories, and reviews recent global cases that illustrate its implications. It also provides a set of indicators to monitor to detect early warning signals.
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US-Armenia Military Drills “Eagle Partner 2025” and Strategic Implications in the South Caucasus
This report investigates the geopolitical and regional outcomes and implications of the joint Armenia–US military exercises, Eagle Partner 2025, focusing on Yerevan’s domestic and external constraints and Russian leverages.
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Afghanistan’s $10 Billion Energy Initiative under Taliban Rule
Executive Summary This report examines the Taliban-led Afghan government’s decision to launch a $10 billion energy infrastructure project with Azizi Energy. The initiative seeks to build 10,000 megawatts of electricity capacity in the next ten years to lessen reliance on imported energy and meet domestic needs. It also has political aims, such as increasing control […]
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Central Asian Gas Sector and Broader Economic Implications
Central Asia faces a growing natural gas shortage because of the increasing population and insufficient infrastructure.
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Uzbekistan-Russian Joint Military Exercise “Hamkorlik-2025”: Why Matters?
Uzbekistan concluded a week-long joint military exercise with the Russian Federation, named Hamkorlik-2025, from 15 to 21 July 2025 in Surxondaryo Region.
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Chechnya: A SWOT Analysis of China Wuhuan’s Investment Initiative
This report assesses the strategic credibility, practical feasibility, and geopolitical implications of the planned Chinese investment trip to Chechnya in July 2025.
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South Caucasus: Strategic Security Risk and Russia’s Geopolitical Dynamics
Geopolitics in the Caucasus is constantly shifting, showing both division and lasting patterns. Despite pressure and diplomatic confrontation, particularly with Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia retains influence in the South Caucasus through economic and cultural ties.
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North Korea’s Military Supplies to Russia Strengthen Its Economy and Geopolitical Standing
North Korea has significantly enhanced its economic position through unprecedented military and economic collaboration with the Russian Federation.
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Central Asia’s Emerging Problem with Narcotics Trafficking
This report highlights the significant increase in narcotics trafficking and related law enforcement operations across Central Asia, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
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Russia Recognised the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: A New Great Game Started?
This report analyses the geopolitical consequences of Russia officially recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in July 2025. This decision highlights Moscow’s intention to expand its influence in Central and South Asia.
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Telegram OSINT Channels Blockades and WhatsApp Disruptions in Russia: Why Matters?
This report examines the temporary suspension of multiple OSINT Telegram channels, with a focus on those affiliated with Ukraine, alongside the disruption of various Telegram and WhatsApp accounts, and assesses the resulting geopolitical and intelligence implications.
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Islamic State Narratives on the Israel-Iran Conflict in Issue No. 500 of Al-Naba
This report assesses the key ideological and operational narratives presented in the 500th issue of Al-Naba, the Islamic State’s official publication, considering the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict.
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Russia’s Strategy Towards the Arab-Muslim World Amidst the Israeli-Iranian Conflict
Within the larger context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, this report studies Russia’s current geopolitical manoeuvring in the Arab and Muslim world. Russia could use the conflict to strengthen ties with Arab and Muslim nations.
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Israel-Iran Conflict: Central Asia’s Reactions and Concerns for Regional Security
This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.
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Ajnad al-Kavkaz and the Challenge of North Caucasian Foreign Fighters in Syria
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa. In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities.
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Friends or Foes: Russia-China Relations and the FSB Intel Leaked Document
This report outlines the contents of a leaked eight-page planning document by the FSB’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO), which describes China as a significant intelligence threat to the Russian Federation.
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First “Central Asia + Italy” Summit Confirms the Regional “New Great Game”
This report assesses Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s official visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in May 2025 and its participation in the first “Central Asia + Italy” summit as well as imperative and constraints of Rome’s engagement in the region.
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Kavkaz Investment Forum 2025: Economic and Geopolitical Outlook
This report provides an analytical assessment of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD) based on developments presented at the Kavkaz Investment Forum 2025, recent macroeconomic data, and ongoing geopolitical dynamics.
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Geopolitica e relazioni internazionali del Kazakhstan: Intervista a S.E. Yerbolat Sembayev
SpecialEurasia ha incontrato l’Ambasciatore della Repubblica del Kazakhstan presso la Repubblica Italiana, S.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, per approfondire la conoscenza di questa repubblica dell’Asia centrale a seguito della recente visita del Presidente italiano Sergio Mattarellae del primo vertice UE-Asia Centrale che si è svolto agli anizi di aprile 2025.
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Kazakhstan’s Geopolitics and International Relations: Interview with H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev
SpecialEurasia met with the Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy, H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, to acquire deeper insight into this Central Asian republic following the recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Astana and the first EU–Central Asia summit held in early April 2025.
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Al-Naba 495: Islamic State’s Propaganda Against al-Sharaa and the Syrian-Israeli Normalisation Tracks
This report examines the resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the latest issue of al-Naba, a response to his attempts to engage with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. . The report details internal security threats, geopolitical shifts, and the dangers of jihadist insurgency.
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Tatarstan and the “Russia-Islamic World” KazanForum 2025
The report examines Tatarstan’s political, economic, and security landscape in Russia’s outreach to Muslim-majority states. KazanForum 2025 demonstrates Moscow’s shift toward non-Western partnerships, with Tatarstan acting as a facilitator of these relations.
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The Meaning of James Fairgrieve’s Geography and World Power in Contemporary Geopolitical Studies
James Fairgrieve’s Geography and World Power, first published in 1915, remains a critical reference for those seeking to understand the geographical determinants of political power. This book offers a historically informed analysis of geography’s impact on state building, military strategy, and global power.
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Cybersecurity Breakdown in Critical Infrastructures: A Strategic Security Risk to US Operational Networks
This report provides an assessment of confirmed cyber activity targeting US critical infrastructure operational technology (OT) environments. It outlines current threat actor behaviour, key vulnerabilities, and specific defensive actions recommended by both government agencies and private sector specialists.
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Armed Attack in Makhachkala Underlined Dagestan’s Security Dilemmas
This report evaluates the recent armed attack in Makhachkala within the broader context of persistent terrorist activity in the Republic of Dagestan. It assesses the tactical and strategic implications of recent violence targeting security forces and the state’s response capacity.
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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) and Corporate Intelligence
This report aims to assess the role of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) within the broader discipline of Corporate Intelligence (CI), evaluating its critical value, current applications, and future opportunities. The report stresses that private and public institutions must integrate OSINT into their corporate intelligence to maintain agility, resilience, and competitiveness.
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Central Asian Fighters in Syria Called for Jihad Against Russia and Iran
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
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Terrorism and Security Operations in the Russian Federation: April 2025 Review
This report briefly describes the recent terrorist threats in Russia in April 2025 and underlines that international jihadist networks, aided by online propaganda and transnational collaboration, still create a persistent and multifaceted terrorist threat.
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Islamic State’s Video Accused al-Sharaa and the Syrian Transition Government of Apostasy
The Islamic State has issued a new propaganda video denouncing the Syrian transitional leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, to be apostate and illegitimate under Islamic law. This report analyse the video’s narrative and its impact on Syrian and regional security.
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Tajik Taliban Commanders Arrested in Afghanistan Underline the Movement’s Internal Frictions
This report examines the recent arrests of ethnic Tajik Taliban commanders in northern Afghanistan, highlighting emerging internal rifts within the movement, particularly between the Kandahar leadership and the Haqqani Network, and potential instability in historically restive regions, such as Takhar and Badakhshan.
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Russia-Central Asia Relations Following the Almaty Ministerial Meeting
The eighth ministerial meeting between Russia and the five Central Asian states, held in Almaty on April 11, 2025, highlights Moscow’s ongoing efforts to consolidate strategic influence across its southern periphery. This report wants to assess the status of Russia-Central Asia relations and Moscow’s strategy to exploit multilateralism and security cooperation to influence Central Asian republics and counter the recent first EU-Central Asia summit.
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OSINT: Useful Practices for Deep and Dark Web Intelligence Collection
This report explains the useful ways to gather information from the deep and dark web, focusing on how this helps fight terrorism and cybercrime. It addresses definitions, strategic considerations, legal frameworks, operational security, and technical tools utilised in dark web investigations.
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Unconfirmed CIA Visit in Afghanistan Increased Pressure on the Taliban
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
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SCAME Report: A Framework for Countering Disinformation and Influence Operations
Intelligence analysts must assess the credibility, reliability, and intent behind information sources to mitigate these threats. The SCAME framework provides a systematic approach to evaluating media content and influence campaigns.
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Intelligence Solutions and Geopolitics: Interview with Max Taylor
To explore the critical role of intelligence and geopolitics in contemporary security environments, SpecialEurasia met with Max Taylor, the Intelligence Manager at Intelligence Fusion.
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Kazakhstan and Turkey’s Growing Role in Afghanistan Through Agricultural and Humanitarian Cooperation
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
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Uzbekistan’s Military Modernisation: AI, UAVs, and Robotic Systems
This report aims to analyse the recent developments regarding Uzbekistan’s military modernisation efforts, as outlined in the presidential address on February 21st, 2025. The country is considering how to incorporate new technologies, such as drones, artificial intelligence, and automated control systems, into its military forces.
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Security and Terrorism in the North Caucasus: Interview with Mark Youngman
SpecialEurasia met with Mark Youngman to discuss his recent report “Terrorism and counterterrorism in the North Caucasus: 2024 trends” considering his vast experience as an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and independent researcher.
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Afghanistan: the Killing of a Chinese Worker Might Compromise the Sino-Taliban Relations
This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan, focusing specifically on the Sino-Taliban relationship. The analysis considers the role of militant groups operating across the border and forecasts potential outcomes that could affect China’s strategic objectives in Central Asia and its broader regional influence.
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15 Years of the North Caucasus Federal District: An Analysis of Achievements and Challenges
This report aims at underlining the North Caucasus Federal District’s positive trends and the local challenges which might undermine regional stability and the Kremlin’s efforts to improve the socioeconomic conditions.
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Sayfiddin Tajibayev’s Role in the Syrian Defence Apparatus: Repercussions for Tajikistan and Central Asia
Sayfiddin Tajibayev’s appointment to a senior position in the Syrian Ministry of Defence highlights a serious security risk to Tajikistan and Central Asia. This development could catalyse the movement of more extremists from Central Asia to Syria, facilitating the establishment of new foreign fighter networks and training centres.
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Assessing Russia’s Strategic Realignment in Syria and the Middle East: Insights from Alexander Hoffmann
SpecialEurasia had an exclusive conversation with Alexander Hoffmann, a Military Adviser from the Russian Federation. His analysis sheds light on the Kremlin’s military, diplomatic, and strategic recalibrations, offering a comprehensive perspective on Russia’s current and future approach in Syria and the broader Middle East.
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Islamic State Narrative on Recent Events in Syria: Analysis of al-Naba Issue 473
The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external manipulation.
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Report Writing for Intelligence
Effective intelligence reporting needs precise and unambiguous presentations of facts, analysis, and recommendations. Analysts must ensure reports focus on the needs of decision-makers, tailor their content and structure them for rapid understanding. This analysis examines the key principles for crafting actionable and relevant intelligence reports.
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Kuwait and Tajikistan: A Developing Partnership in Security and Economic Affairs
This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
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Incident Report: UAV Attack on the Russian University of Special Forces in Gudermes, Chechnya
On October 29th, 2024, a UAV attack targeted the Russian University of Special Forces (RUS) in Gudermes, Chechnya, resulting in a fire on the roof of an unoccupied building.
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Islamic Banking in Russia: A SWOT Analysis
This report evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) surrounding Russia’s newly launched Islamic banking pilot programme. Started in September 2023, the programme seeks to assess the feasibility of Islamic financial services across Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, and Dagestan.
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Ukraine: Security Forces Arrested an Islamic State Militant
The arrest of an Islamic State militant in Ukraine has raised concern on the country’s potential role as a transit territory towards Europe for terrorist groups and jihadist fighters.
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Azerbaijan: Increasing Saudi Investments Might Boost Economic Diversification
The recent Azerbaijani-Saudi business forum underlined Baku’s attempt to diversify its economy and Riyadh’s desire to increasing its investment and economic presence in Azerbaijan and, therefore, in the South Caucasus region.
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North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities
This report investigates the upcoming forum “North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities” scheduled on 4-5 October 2024. The forum aims to examine the strategic potential of the NorthCaucasus in Russia’s global strategy, focusing on infrastructure, regional growth, and human capital.
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OSINT in the Middle East and the Arab World: Some Useful Tools (Video)
In this report, we present a few practical suggestions and OSINT tools to aid analysts in navigating difficulties related to their investigation about the Middle East and the Arab world, especially when they lack fluency in the region’s primary languages such as Arabic and Persian.
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34th Conference on Islamic Banking in Iran: Economic Report
This report covers the 34th conference on Islamic banking held at the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in Tehran. The event gathered key financial leaders and government officials to discuss reforms in banking laws, the role of banks in supporting domestic production, and related economic issues.
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Dagestan Between Kremlin’s Support and Indian Interests
This report analyses the recent developments in Dagestan, focusing on Moscow’s strategic interests in the republic and the geopolitical significance of the North Caucasus. It highlights the visit of Yuri Chaika, the Russian President’s representative in the North Caucasus, to Dagestan, and assesses the importance of the recent meeting between Dagestani authorities and an Indian delegation.
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Azerbaijan’s Foreign Policy Amidst the East-West Dichotomy
This report investigates Azerbaijan’s strategy to differentiate its partnerships, maximise economic opportunities, and maintain strategic autonomy amid shifting geopolitical dynamics characterised by the conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East and the East-West competition.
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Counter-Terrorism Operations in Ingushetia and Adygea: Recent Developments
The recent counter-terrorism operations in Ingushetia and Adygea underscore the persistent threat of terrorism within Russia and the government’s ongoing efforts to neutralise such threats.
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Analysing Contemporary North Caucasus with Mairbek Vatchagaev
SpecialEurasia engaged in a discussion with Mairbek Vatchagaev, a historian and political analyst specialising in the North Caucasus, to acquire deeper insight into the region’s dynamics, the Kremlin’s local strategy, the developing situation, and future risks.
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ISKP Threats to Shi’a Community in its Latest Issue of “Voice of Khurasan”
This report examines the content and implications of the article “Why Do Mujahideen of the Islamic State Make Rawafidh the Target of Their Operations and Turn Their Cities into Cemeteries?”, which serves as an ideological manifesto, justifying the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan’s (ISKP) ongoing campaign of violence against Shi’a Muslims.
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Putin’s Visit to Baku: Assessing the Geopolitical Implications for the South Caucasus
This report analyses recent developments in the bilateral relations between Russia and Azerbaijan, focusing on the outcomes of Russian President Vladimir Putin’s official visit to Baku and its implications for regional geopolitics.
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Kazakhstan: Counter-Terrorism Operations in July-August 2024
This report covers the recent counter-terrorism operations in Kazakhstan, resulting in the arrest of five individuals involved in terrorism-related activities. The operations underscore the ongoing threat within the country and the effectiveness of the government’s response.
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Analysis of Tajikistan’s Counter-Terrorism Strategy
This report assesses security developments and counter-terrorism strategy in Tajikistan, focusing on the first half of 2024. It highlights the security implications of rising extremist activities compounded by internal challenges such as political repression, ethnic tensions, and economic instability.
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Terrorist Galaxy’s Reaction to Ismail Haniyeh’s Death
This report examines the reactions of various terrorist organisations to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. The purpose is to offer a comprehensive examination of the immediate responses exhibited by significant terrorist organisations, appraise their potential strategic manoeuvres, and forecast the broader consequences for regional security.
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“Drone Jihad” and Training Centre in Afghanistan
Some sources indicate that terrorists, trained in a specialised UAV centre in Kunduz, Afghanistan, plan to execute attacks during the 2024 Paris Olympics. The existing threat of “drone jihad”, potentially involving graduates from the centre already present in Europe, requires urgent and stringent counterterrorism measures.
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Azerbaijan SWOT Analysis
Its strategic location, natural resources, and complex history shapes Azerbaijan’s geopolitical landscape. This SWOT analysis provides a comprehensive understanding of Azerbaijan’s current socioeconomic and political environment and guides investors in understanding the country’s potentialities and challenges.
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ISKP Article “The Caliphate: the Last Pillar of the Islamic Nation” Praised the 10th Anniversary of the Islamic State
Al Azaim Foundation, the ISKP media branch, recently published an article titled “The Caliphate: the Last Pillar of the Islamic Nation” which underscored the group’s ideological commitment to the concept of the Caliphate, hailing it as a divinely ordained entity and portraying it as the ultimate saviour of the Islamic Ummah (community).
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Giuliano Bifolchi Discussed Middle East Dynamics with Emanuele Landi at Cusano News 7
In an interview conducted on Thursday, July 7th, 2024, Giuliano Bifolchi, SpecialEurasia Research Manager, shared his insights with Emanuele Landi of Cusano News7 concerning the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, focusing primarily on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the potential for increased hostilities in Lebanon.
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Analysis of the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan’s Video Message “Followers of al-Yahud”
Al Azaim Foundation, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) media wing, recently released a video titled “Followers of the Jews” that represents a strategic attempt to undermine the Taliban’s religious authority in Afghanistan.
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North Korea Sends Troops to Ukraine: Why Matters?
The recent defence pact established between Russia and North Korea represents a notable escalation in Eurasian geopolitical dynamics, carrying the potential for wide-ranging consequences. Following the signing of this agreement, according to Seoul’s sources, there is the eventuality that Pyongyang will deploy military engineering units to support Russian forces in the Ukrainian conflict.
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Georgia: Geopolitical Risk Report
The adoption of the ‘foreign agents law’ by the government, the unresolved territorial disputes, particularly in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a contentious relationship with Russia, and the challenging economic conditions have amplified Georgia’s geopolitical risk in recent months.
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Osintracker: Optimising Open-Source Intelligence Gathering
Identifying suitable tools to support their daily routines is a core competency for Open-Source Intelligence (OSINT) analysts. For analysts seeking to expedite and organise their investigations, while simultaneously facilitating efficient data analysis and review, Osintracker presents an interesting solution.
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Tatarstan-Turkey Economic Relations and Implications for Russian Geopolitics
This report examines the implications of April’s meeting between Tatarstan and Turkish representatives and highlights Tatarstan’s role in foresting Moscow’ foreign relation and, simultaneously, remaining a key economic and political asset in the Russian hands.
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Geopolitical Report: Kavkaz Investment Forum and the Future of the North Caucasus
The upcoming Kavkaz Investment Forum in Chechnya presents an opportunity to highlight the economic potential of the North Caucasus region. Recent years have seen robust socio-economic growth, but challenges remain, including over-reliance on tourism and external geopolitical pressures.
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Intel Report: Fergana Valley and Regional Security
The last meeting in Fergana between the heads of the security services of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan accentuated the countries’ desire to cooperate in regional security to face cross-border challenges, such as terrorism and extremism.
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Leveraging Open Source Intelligence in Cybersecurity
Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) serves as a cornerstone in modern cybersecurity, providing invaluable insights into potential threats and vulnerabilities. In this report, we delve into the wide range of applications of OSINT in cybersecurity, such as penetration testing, red teaming, digital forensics, and threat intelligence.
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Intelligence Report: The Ingush Jamaat and the Islamic State Wilayat Kavkaz
The resurgence of Islamist radical activity in the North Caucasus region, particularly attributed to the Ingush Jamaat of the Islamic State Wilayat Kavkaz, poses a significant threat to regional stability and security.
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Teenagers’ Terrorist Cells Linked to the Islamic State Arrested in Germany and Switzerland
The recent arrests of teenagers linked to the Islamic State in both Germany and Switzerland serve as a stark reminder of the persistent threat posed by jihadist propaganda and terrorist organisations in Europe.
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Financial Markets and the Geopolitical Risk
This report scrutinises the multifaceted impact of geopolitical risk on financial markets, offering invaluable insights to guide stakeholders through this persistent challenge.
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Terrorist Attack in Russia and Islamic State Wilayat Khurasan’s Jihadist Propaganda
On April 8th, 2024, the Al Azaim Foundation released The Voice of Khurasan Issue 34 titled “The Bear Bewildered.” This publication analysed the recent terrorist attacks in Moscow defined as a ‘retaliation’ and serves as a call to action aimed at mobilising the Muslim Ummah against perceived Western invasions and advocating for the restoration of the Caliphate.
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Analysis of The Voice of Khurasan First Issue in the Tajik Language
The recent publication of the first issue of The Voice of Khurasan in the Tajik language (Sadoi Khurasan) underlined the Islamic State Wilayat Khurasan’s strategy to interest Tajik speakers in Central Asia and increase the pressure against Dushanbe’s government.
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Russia’s Far East and China
Developing and improving the socioeconomic conditions in the Far East is of utmost importance for the Russian Federation, as it offers a substantial opportunity for economic growth and strategic influence. In this scenario, although Beijing might be one of the key investors in the region, there is also the possibility of a conflict between Russia and China for the control and influence of the Far East’s regional dynamics and economic market.
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Counter-Terrorism Operation in Ingushetia: A Risk Assessment
FSB special forces’ counter-terrorism operation in Ingushetia stressed Russia’s readiness and strategy to counter the terrorist threat and jihadist propaganda’s impact in those regions as the North Caucasus mainly inhabited by Muslims.
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Chechnya’s Role in Russia’s Military Strategy and Foreign Policy
Dmitry Medvedev’s recent visit to Grozny and meeting with Ramzan Kadyrov and local military officials confirmed the role that Chechnya is plying in supporting Russia in the Ukraine conflict and the North Caucasian republic’s increasing role in regional and state’s dynamics and foreign policy.
22 November 2025 – Online Course Geopolitical Intelligene Analysis
This course represents a practical step for professionals aiming to refine their analytical discipline in a rapidly shifting global environment.