Category: Monitoring & Analysis
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Caught in the Middle: Armenia between the United States and Iran
This assessment analyses how renewed United States tariffs on countries trading with Tehran, combined with internal instability in Iran, affect Armenia’s economic resilience and strategic posture.
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Al-Naba 530: Islamic State Attacked al-Sharaa Administration and the Kurdish Reform in Syria
The Islamic State has launched a strategic ideological offensive via the editorial of al-Naba Issue 530, specifically designed to exploit domestic fractures following President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s issuance of Decree No. 13.
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Caucasus Geopolitical Risk 2026
The Caucasus region enters 2026 in a state of profound transformation, characterised by the shift from traditional “frozen conflicts” to a high-stakes competition over transcontinental trade corridors.
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Iran’s Struggle: Economy, Unrest, and Power
This report assesses the drivers, dynamics, and strategic implications of the current wave of arrests and nationwide unrest in Iran amid acute economic collapse and heightened external pressure.
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The Turkish Great Game in Afghanistan Between Opportunities and Challenges
This report highlights Turkey’s Great Game in Afghanistan and the linked opportunities and challenges for Ankara’s engagement with the Taliban.
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Is Russia Ready to Intervene in the Current Iranian Protests to Support Tehran?
This report examines Russia’s readiness to assist Iran in suppressing the protests by analysing the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran.
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Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Risk 2026
This report evaluates geopolitical risks in Asia-Pacific in 2026, focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China.
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The CARVER Matrix in Strategic Targeting and Intelligence Assessment
The CARVER Matrix provides a rigorous analytical framework for military intelligence, special operations planning, and strategic targeting.
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Adygea: FSB Arrested a Central Asian Citizen Accused of Terrorism
Executive Summary This report assesses the recent disruption of a terrorist plot in Maikop, Republic of Adygea, by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
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Venezuela Crisis and Eurasian Reverberations: Scenarios Assessment
The extrajudicial capture of President Nicolás Maduro by United States special operations forces represents a fundamental shift in the global security architecture, signalling a return to high-risk, kinetic regime change as a core instrument of Washington’s foreign policy.
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Could Iran Disrupt Gulf Oil and Gas Shipments if a New Conflict Arises with Israel and The US?
This report explains whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz considering a potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.
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Middle East Security Without a Stable Anchor. Managing Regional Risk in an Era of US Political Volatility
This report examines the impact of increasing political volatility within the United States on Middle East security dynamics, highlighting a decline in US predictability as a key risk factor.
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Iran: Macroeconomic Securitisation and the Pivot to “War-Time” Governance
The Iranian state is formalising a transition to a “war conditions” framework under Article 79, signalling a shift toward emergency command-and-control measures to address the systemic exhaustion of fiscal buffers and the “terminal volatility” of the rial.
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Iran: Protests and Economic Problems Threaten the Internal Stability
The internal security situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has reached a critical threshold as localised economic grievances coalesce into broader political defiance.
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The New Opium Afghan Road and the Reshaping of Criminal Networks in Central Asia
This report seeks to demonstrate how the inability to control drug trafficking and its expansion in Central Asia presents another major challenge for the current de facto Taliban government, although the movement ban the opium cultivation in 2022.
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Middle East Geopolitical Risk 2026
This report evaluates the Middle East’s geopolitical risk for 2026, a year defined by the precarious “armed peace” following the 2025 Israel-Iran kinetic escalation and the first anniversary of the Syrian transition.
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Trace Labs OSINT Virtual Machine: December 2025 Release Assessment
This report evaluates the December 2025 release of the Trace Labs OSINT Virtual Machine (VM) and its application in the field of online investigation.
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Central Asia Geopolitical Risk 2026
Central Asia will enter 2026 with relative surface stability because of better regional coordination and no immediate interstate conflict.
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Putin’s 2025 Address and Russia’s Military, Political and Economic Framework
This report analyses President Vladimir Putin’s “Results of the Year” address, delivered on December 19, 2025.
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Kyrgyzstan Expands Economic Engagement with Afghanistan, Opening a Trade House in Kabul
This report examines Kyrgyzstan’s strategic expansion of economic engagement with Afghanistan through the establishment of a permanent Trade House in Kabul, assessing its political, economic, and security implications.
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Project Management Principles as a Foundational Framework for Intelligence and Security Analysis
This report examines the structural convergence between project-management principles and the methodologies employed in intelligence analysis, threat assessment, and corporate-security practices.
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Russian Counterterrorism Assessment 2025: Trends, Risks, and Strategic Implications
The report assesses Russian security by analysing recent data from the FSB and NAC regarding terrorism threats and violent trends within the nation in 2025.
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Border clashes between Cambodia and Thailand: implications for Chinese interests in Southeast Asia
This report analyses the conflict between Thailand and Cambodia, highlighting how it can impact Chinese regional interests and represents a growing element of instability in Southeast Asia.
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Islamic State’s Editorial Against the Syrian Government and Al-Sharaa: Analysis of al-Naba, Issue 525
Islamic State has recently published Issue 525 of al-Naba, whose editorial condemns the recent developments in Syria and the current government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and exhorts local Muslims to fight against a leadership described as ‘an instrument of foreign powers.’
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Kazakhstan – Afghanistan Transit and Economic Nexus via Hairatan
This report analyses the economic and strategic conversations held between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan in Mazar-i-Sharif focused on bilateral trade, humanitarian aid, and the strengthening of transit corridors.
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The BLA and the Taliban: Two Fronts in Pakistan’s War on Terror
This report reviews recent incidents and highlights Pakistan’s necessity to counter both the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP) with a structure counterterrorism strategy.
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25th Anniversary of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between India and Russia
This report provides an assessment and analysis of the 25th Anniversary of the Declaration on Strategic Partnership between India and Russia in the period of changing geopolitical environment in world politics.
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Understanding the Intelligence Profession: Roles, Skills, and Analytical Foundations
The following report presents some of the most common roles within the intelligence community, analysing their core functions and the skills and dispositions essential for effective execution.
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Astana-Kyiv’s Relations and Kazakh Oil Export After the CPC Terminal Attack
Executive Summary This report evaluates the current relations between Ukraine and Kazakhstan after the naval drone strike on the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal near Novorossiysk on November 29, 2025, and Astana’s formal protest to Kyiv.
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Understanding Central Asia’s Dynamics: Interview with Alberto Frigerio
SpecialEurasia engaged Alberto Frigerio, Full Professors at Narxoz University in Almaty, in order to improve understanding of Central Asia and its changing dynamics.
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Tajikistan and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: Towards a Central Asian Normalisation of the de facto current Taliban regime?
This report aims to evaluate the developing diplomatic relations between Tajikistan and the Taliban, following the recent meeting in Kabul, through an analysis of pertinent events and research.
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Afghanistan-Pakistan Military Tensions Threaten Regional Stability
Recent Pakistani air raids in eastern Afghanistan have heightened tensions between Kabul and Islamabad after the recent ceasefire that the parties reached in Doha (Qatar) in October 2025.
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Geopolitics of Uzbekistan as a Strategic Pivot in Eurasia
This report analyses Uzbekistan’s geopolitical, economic, and security environment, assessing its strategic posture, multi-vector foreign policy, and regional influence.
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Iran’s Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya Rail Corridor: Strategic Gateway Between Asia and Europe
This report examines Iran’s long-term strategy to become a key link between Asian and European markets via the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya rail corridor.
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The Grey Zone between Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China: Assessing the Threat of Uighur Jihadism
Executive Summary Uighur jihadism represents not only a menace for China’s internal stability but also for its reliability as a major actor in the international arena.
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Germany’s Bid for AI Leadership: The IPAI Experiment
This report provides a strategic intelligence assessment of the Innovation Park Artificial Intelligence (IPAI) in Heilbronn, a flagship initiative of Baden-Württemberg, and a core component of Germany’s emerging AI strategy.
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Armenia, the Trump Route (TRIPP) Lease Proposal and Pashinyan’s Domestic Politics
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has publicly stated that Yerevan is considering granting a 49- or 99-year lease for development rights to the proposed Trump Route (TRIPP), a transit corridor linking mainland Azerbaijan with the Nakhichevan exclave via Armenia’s Syunik Province.
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Russia Escalates Pressure on Ukraine with Major Strike on Kyiv
The Kremlin is utilising military force, political pressure, and intimidation to compel Ukraine and its partners to adopt positions that favour Russian interests.
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Water Scarcity in Iran: Strategic and Geopolitical Consequences
This report examines the current state of Iran’s water crisis and its implications for the country’s political trajectory.
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Russia’s Economic Forums: What to Monitor, and What Matters
This report identifies the events and regional forums that merit persistent monitoring because they produce high-value, open-source indicators of Russian strategy.
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Open Source Intelligence (OSINT): Past to Present
The world of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) has undergone a profound transformation since the beginning of the 21st century and the affirmation of the Internet. What are the current challenges and trends?
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Sanae Takaichi’s New Cabinet and Japan’s Geostrategic Challenges in the Asia-Pacific Region
Executive summary This report examines the political implications of Sanae Takaichi’s election as Prime Minister of Japan and its impact on regional security and international relations.
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Gulf Arab Monarchies Increased Their Economic Relations with Central Asia
The Eurasian Development Bank’s first macroeconomic study on the Persian Gulf states highlights a sharp expansion in trade and investment ties between the Gulf Arab monarchies and Central Asian republics over the 2020–2024 period.
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Kazakhstan and the Abraham Accords: A Look Ahead
Kazakhstan announced its intention to join the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit in Washington D.C. to attend the “Central Asia + United States” Summit.
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The Tajik-Uzbek Jihadism: Transnational Violence and Security Policies in Central Asia
This report aims to analyse the intersection between the Uzbek and the Tajiks, which we can consider among the most influential ethnic jihadist groups in Central Asia.
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Prospective U.S. Air Base in Syria: Strategic Implications, Risks and Regional Impact
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
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Geopolitics’ Strategic Value in Finance and Investment Portfolio Management
Geopolitics — the examination of how geography, power, and political interests influence global outcomes — is now essential for financial decision-making.
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Central Asian Gas Ring: Opportunities, Risks and Geopolitical Implications
This report examines the proposed Central Asian Gas Ring, assessing its potential to stabilise regional energy supply, attract investment, and alter the geopolitical and economic balance among Central Asian states and external actors.
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The UN Resolution on Western Sahara: Political Endorsement, Economic Interests, and Strategic Consequences
This report provides an analytical overview of the recently adopted United Nations Security Council resolution extending the mandate of the UN Mission for the Referendum in Western Sahara (MINURSO).
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President Alexander Stubb’s Official Visit to Uzbekistan Marks a New Chapter in Finland–Uzbekistan Relations
This report provides an analytical overview of the upcoming official visit of the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, to the Republic of Uzbekistan, scheduled for October 30–31, 2025.
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Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan Consolidated Their Regional Cooperation and Strategy
The visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Astana on October 20-21, 2025, strengthened the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
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The Importance of the Intelligence Cycle in Consulting
This report assesses the function and importance of the intelligence cycle within consulting, concentrating on its methodical phases, practical advantages for analysts and clients, and its strategic relevance in intricate and unstable context.
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Turkmenistan President’s Official Visit to Rome: Why Matters?
Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov arrived in Rome on October 24, 2025, for a state visit that involves a meeting with Italian leaders, attendance at a business forum, and the opening of an archaeological exhibition at the Musei Capitolini.
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Uzbekistan–EU Relations Enter a New Era with the Signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement
This report provides an analytical overview of the upcoming signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) between Uzbekistan and the European Union, scheduled for October 24, 2025, in Brussels.
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EU Cross-Regional Connectivity and Strategic Engagement in the Black Sea, South Caucasus, and Central Asia
The EU Cross-Regional Connectivity Agenda has increased its commitment to the Black Sea, South Caucasus, and Central Asia with the purpose of improving trade, energy, and digital infrastructures and boosting security and resilience.
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What Is Military Intelligence and Why It Matters
This report defines military intelligence, outlines its significance for commanders and policymakers, details its organization and implementation, and differentiates between the primary intelligence operational levels: strategic, operational, and tactical.
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CIS and Russia-Central Asia Summits: Regional Dynamics and Moscow’s Strategy
The Dushanbe meetings, which occurred from October 8th to 10th, 2025, led to a collaborative set of political, security, and economic commitments within the Russia–Central Asia and CIS frameworks, resulting in 19 signed documents and the creation of a “CIS Plus” model.
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Afghanistan: the Taliban Discussed Investments in Mining Sector with Russian Companies
This report examines the recent meeting in Kabul between Mullah Baradar and representatives of Russian companies focused on investments in the mining sector.
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Arrest of Islamic State-Linked Individuals in Adjara, Georgia
The State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) detained three Georgian nationals in Adjara on 13 October 2025 for alleged affiliation with the so-called “Takbirist Jamaat”, a group ideologically aligned with the Islamic State.
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The Price of Stability: Iran’s Struggle against Inflation, Sanctions, and Capital Flight
The report analyses the immediate economic and geopolitical effects of current events in Iran, encompassing the private sector’s formal appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian for urgent currency and regulatory reform amid a “neither war nor peace” climate, alongside a significant strengthening of Central Bank actions against rial-based stablecoin channels.
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Afghanistan-Pakistan Escalating Tensions: Cross-Border Clashes, Air Strikes, and Regional Implications
This report assesses the recent escalation of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly border clashes and alleged Pakistani air strikes near Kabul. It examines the causes, implications, and regional consequences of these confrontations.
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Abkhazia SWOT Analysis
This report investigates the Republic of Abkhazia’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats to inform policymakers and analysts on short- to medium-term geopolitical and economic risk.
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Emergence of the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria: Implications for Iran’s Strategy in Syria
The formation of the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria (Ouli al-Ba’s) marks the emergence of a new actor within the Syrian conflict, positioning itself as a nationalist and religiously inspired “resistance” front opposing Israeli, Turkish, and Western presence in southern Syria.
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The Organisation of Turkic States Summit in Qabala: Strategic Consolidation or Regional Posturing?
The XII Summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), convened in Qabala (scheduled to open 7 October), signals a deliberate push by Ankara and Baku to translate cultural-ethnic affinity into tangible geopolitical influence.
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Russian Kinetic Anti Drone “Izdelie 545” and Implications for Forward UAV Defence
Russian sources report the field testing of a new kinetic anti‑drone device designated “Izdelie‑545”. This system’s purpose is to neutralise drones within a 100–150 meter range using a projectile that interferes with their communication and control systems.
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Dagestan and the International Forum on Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories: Why Matters?
The International Forum on “Sustainable Development of Mountain Territories,” convened in Makhachkala on 1–3 October 2025, constitutes a significant demonstration of Moscow’s intent to promote Dagestan’s economy and integrate the North Caucasian republic into multilateral Eurasian frameworks.
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Israel-Iran Escalation Risk: Military, Political, and Information Warfare Dimensions
This report evaluates the likelihood and drivers of a renewed Israeli strike against Iran. It examines Tel Aviv’s strategic objectives, Tehran’s vulnerabilities and deterrence efforts, the evolving political environment, and the interplay between military procurement and information warfare.
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China–Taliban Engagement over Bagram Air Base to Counter US Strategy
This report assesses China’s invitation to Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoub Mujahid against the backdrop of US interest in regaining access to Bagram Air Base.
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Pakistan SWOT Analysis: Geopolitics, Economy, and Security
This report provides a strategic SWOT analysis of Pakistan to support decision-makers in evaluating the country’s current geopolitical and economic position.
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Denuclearisation and regional security: the contrast between North Korea’s position and South Korea’s vision
This report presents the core findings concerning Kim Jong-un’s recent comments on North Korea’s nuclear policy, South Korea’s stance on phased arms control, and the potential impact on the United States, China, and overall regional stability.
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The Bagram Factor: US Posturing and the Future of Iran’s Regional Integration
This report assesses Iran’s developing strategic posture amid renewed geopolitical encirclement, with a focus on the implications of a potential US return to Bagram airbase, regional infrastructure realignments, and shifting alliances in South and Central Asia.
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China’s Cultural Expansion in Armenia: Strategic Implications of the Confucius University Initiative
This report evaluates Armenia’s agreement with China to establish a Confucius University in Yerevan, assessing its economic, political, and strategic consequences.
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United States’ Aspiration on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan: Risk Assessment
This report examines the connection between Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the US to control Bagram Air Base and the changing political and economic landscape of Afghanistan.
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Shifting Fault Lines: Europe and the Iran Nuclear Talks
The current phase of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program is marked by heightened European pressure, Iranian mistrust, and competing political objectives within Tehran.
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Geopolitics of Gagauzia and Moldova’s EU Aspiration
This report examines the security and political repercussions of Gagauzia Governor Eugenia Guțsul’s arrest and sentencing, alongside legal actions targeting opposition figures, all in the lead-up to Moldova’s parliamentary elections on September 28, 2025.
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Geopolitics of Small European States: The Case of Cyprus and San Marino. Interview with Michele Muratori
SpeciaEurasia met with Michele Muratori, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the Parliament of San Marino and Representative of the Republic of San Marino at the OSCE, recently visited Cyprus in the framework of parliamentary cooperation among small European states.
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CSTO Military Exercise “Rubezh-2025”: Intel Briefing
This report provides an assessment of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) military exercise “Rubezh-2025”, held in Kyrgyzstan from 17 to 20 September 2025.
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Russia-Belarus Joint Military Exercise “Zapad-2025”: Intel Briefing
Russia and Belarus conducted the joint strategic exercise “Zapad-2025” from 12 to 16 September across 41 land and maritime training areas in both countries.
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Kazakhstan’s Reform Path: Consolidation of Power and Strategic Modernisation
This report examines Kazakhstan’s changing internal and energy policies following President Tokayev’s State of the Nation Address on September 8, 2025.
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India-Central Asia’s Trade and Economic Performance Between Opportunities and Challenges
This report assesses the current scale, constraints and strategic implications of commerce between India and the Central Asian states, based on the recent findings published by the Eurasian Development Bank and India Exim Bank.
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Pakistani Security Forces and TTP Militants Clash at the Afghan Border
On September 13, 2025, the TTP launched attacks against Pakistani security forces in South Waziristan and Lower Dir, which led to the deaths of 19 soldiers and no less than 35 militants.
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Intelligence Report Writing: Useful Guidelines
This article provides guidance on the skills, structures, and methods required to produce effective intelligence reports.
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Protests and Political Crisis in Nepal: Intel Brief
This report examines the immediate economic and political consequences in Nepal stemming from youth-led protests across the country, which were sparked by the government’s social media ban, as well as wider issues of corruption and youth unemployment.
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Israeli Strikes Against Hamas Leadership in Doha: Intelligence Briefing
This report provided a preliminary overview of an Israeli operation in Doha, which involved multiple explosions and aimed to assassinate senior Hamas leaders.
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C5+1 Secretariat Meeting in Dushanbe: Washington Confirms Its Strategic Engagement in Central Asia
This report analyses the geopolitical dynamics and economic significance of the meeting, which gathered senior officials from Central Asian states and the U.S. Department of State convened in Dushanbe under the C5+1 format.
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The Eastern Economic Forum Points to the Strengthening of the Pro-Eurasian Vector of Moscow’s Policy
This report examines the geopolitical significance of the tenth Eastern Economic Forum (EEF), convened on September 3, 2025, in Vladivostok.
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The Tajikistan–Afghanistan Border Clash Alarmed Regional Security
This report examines the geopolitical consequences of the armed clash on August 24, 2025, which involved Tajikistan border forces and Taliban fighters near the Panj River.
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Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit 2025: Strategic Convergence in a Shifting Global Order
This report analyses the outcomes of the 25th Summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), held in Tianjin, China, from August 31 to September 1, 2025.
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Afghanistan Hosts 23,000 International Terrorists According to Russia
This report analyses the implications and reasons of Russia’s statement regarding the presence of 23,000 international terrorists and militants in Afghanistan.
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Iranian Counterterrorism Operations Against Jaish al-Adl Eliminated 13 Militants
This report assesses the recent Iranian counterterrorism operations in Sistan and Baluchestan Province targeting Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant organisation with a record of insurgency and cross-border activity.
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Central Asian Special Representatives on Afghanistan’s Meeting: Why Matters?
This report assesses the strategic and economic implications of the first meeting of Central Asian special representatives on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan on 26 August 2025.
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Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Discuss Increasing Trade Turnover to $500 Million
This report assesses the recent efforts by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to strengthen economic, infrastructural, and energy cooperation following their March 2025 border agreement.
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Implications of Israel David’s Corridor Project on West Asia’s Regional Security
This report examines the nature and objectives of the Israel David’s Corridor and its implications for Middle Eastern security and regional geopolitical dynamics.
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China, Afghanistan, and Pakistan’s Engagement: Considering Economic Prospects and Security Constraints
This report analyses China’s recent diplomatic and economic activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with a focus on agreements that aim to boost trade, security collaboration, and infrastructure development.
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Pezeshkian’s Visit to Armenia Confirms Iran’s Interests in the South Caucasus
This report analyses the official visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Armenia, which resulted in the signing of ten memorandums covering political, economic, cultural, and scientific cooperation.
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What is Geopolitical Risk and Why it Matters
This report examines the definition, scope, and relevance of geopolitical risk, identifies its key categories, and reviews recent global cases that illustrate its implications. It also provides a set of indicators to monitor to detect early warning signals.
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Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska: Geopolitical Implications and Strategic Narratives
This report analyses the geopolitical significance of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025.
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US-Armenia Military Drills “Eagle Partner 2025” and Strategic Implications in the South Caucasus
This report investigates the geopolitical and regional outcomes and implications of the joint Armenia–US military exercises, Eagle Partner 2025, focusing on Yerevan’s domestic and external constraints and Russian leverages.
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