Category: Monitoring & Analysis
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The Growing Role of the Taliban in Central Asia
The changing approach of Central Asian nations to the de facto Taliban regime mirrors a wider regional inclination for practical cooperation, motivated by concerns for security, infrastructure, and energy transportation.
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OSINT Tools to Monitor Iran
This report outlines a selection of OSINT tools that collectively enhance situational awareness, support escalation analysis, and strengthen the fidelity of assessments related to Iran’s domestic, regional, and cyber activities.
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Armenia’s Foreign Policy Dilemma: The Pashinyan–Putin Meeting in Context
Armenia’s leadership is attempting to rebalance its foreign policy between Russia and the West ahead of pivotal June 2026 elections, but Moscow’s warnings and tightening leverage signal a narrowing space for Yerevan’s strategic manoeuvre.
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Strategic Equilibrium Through Disorder: The Logic of the US-Iran Ceasefire
This report assesses the strategic implications of an Iranian-proposed ten-point framework within the context of United States crisis management, characterised by a calibrated balance between escalation and negotiation.
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Uzbekistan Approves the Law on Islamic Finance: Why Matters?
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s approval of a dedicated Islamic finance law on 27 March 2026 marks a decisive inflection point in Uzbekistan’s financial evolution.
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The Evolution of Iranian Naval Doctrine (2020–2026)
This report analyses the evolution of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN)’s naval doctrine between 2020 and 2026, with particular focus on the operational impact of the March 2026 losses.
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Iranian Strategic Position and Conflict Escalation
This report evaluates the strategic consequences of Iran’s physical geography and the current military escalation involving Israel and the United States.
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The Strategic Liquidation of the Gulf Protectorate: From Strategic Partners to Transactional Clients
This report evaluates the structural vulnerabilities within the Persian Gulf security architecture, characterising the regional status quo as a persistent security dependency rather than a collection of fully autonomous sovereign actors.
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6 OSINT Tools for Maritime Intelligence
This report provides an overview of 6 OSINT tools useful for Maritime Intelligence activities and geopolitical risk monitoring.
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Geopolitical Volatility and Global Market Resilience
This report serves as a high-level strategic analysis of the global financial landscape and investment market amidst the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting systemic shocks to energy logistics.
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Is Pakistan Increasing Its Role in the International Arena as a Mediator in the Middle East Conflict?
Pakistan is gradually expanding its role as a mediator between the United States government and its principal rivals. From the Doha talks with the Taliban to the upcoming summits in Islamabad involving Iranian interests, its posture is acquiring increasing credibility as a functional intermediary.
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Sukhum Economic Forum in Abkhazia: Why Matters?
The Republic of Abkhazia is formalising a strategic economic “road map” through the Sukhum Economic Forum to deepen integration with the Russian Federation and South Ossetia.
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Uighur Militancy in Syria and Its Impact on Chinese Regional Ambitions
This report assesses how the institutionalisation of Uighur fighters within the new Syrian political framework affects Chinese strategic interests in both the Levant and Central Asia.
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Regional Water Security and Hydro-political Stability in Central Asia
This report scrutinises the results of Tashkent Water Week 2026, during which representatives from Central Asia deliberated on the region’s water resource management challenges.
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The Iran Proxy Shield: From Military Hierarchy to Automated Axis
This report aims at highlighting how the Shia axis is no longer a monolithic military hierarchy but a decentralised, automated “neural network” of resistance which might support the Iranian military strategy and goals.
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Maritime Intelligence: An Overview
Maritime Intelligence represents the systematic collection, evaluation, and dissemination of data concerning activities, entities, and environmental conditions within the global maritime domain.
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Islam in Russia and Central Asia: “Instrumentalisation” vs “Limitation”
This report examines the divergent state strategies regarding Islam in Russia and Central Asia, specifically the “instrumentalisation” of religious identity for geopolitical expansion and the systematic “limitation” of faith to ensure domestic autocratic stability.
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EU Preparedness Strategy: Report from Bruxelles
SpecialEurasia, in media partnership with Notizie Geopolitiche, attended the EU Citizens’ Panel on Preparedness in Brussels from March 20–22, 2026.
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NATO Sea Shield 2026 and Black Sea Strategic Environment
NATO and regional allies have begun the Sea Shield 2026 exercise in Romania to address escalating hybrid threats and maritime instability in the Black Sea.
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Iranian Precision Strike Strategy and US-Israel Defensive Constraints
Iran’s increasing emphasis on precision-guided and hypersonic missile technology presents a challenge to US and Israeli air defence capabilities, with the potential for severe disruption to vital military and energy assets in the region.
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Geopolitical Intelligence for Corporate Solutions
This report outlines how geopolitical intelligence serves as the “map” for international operations, providing the clarity required for corporate solutions.
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Iran’s Retaliation Against Gulf Energy Facilities After Airstrikes Against South Pars Gas Field
Iran is conducting retaliatory strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure following reported Israeli attacks on its South Pars gas facilities and the killing of senior Iranian officials.
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Armenia-China Relations: Yerevan’s Imperatives and Regional Constraints
This report investigates the relations between Armenia and China by assessing Yerevan’s imperative and constraints, the Chinese opportunities in the Armenian market, and the reaction of Russia, European Union and the United States.
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Eurasia Maritime Geopolitical Risk 2026
In 2026, the Eurasian maritime environment is experiencing significant instability because of the breakdown of emerging local tensions and disputes and the US-Israel conflict with Iran, affecting the Persian Gulf.
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Why the Durand Line Matters: Towards a De-Escalation Between Afghanistan and Pakistan?
This report evaluates whether a diplomatic resolution regarding the Durand Line would mitigate regional volatility or inadvertently catalyse local insurgencies by further fragmenting the Pashtun ethnic core.
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Turkmenistan and Turkey Strengthen their Bilateral Relations
This report evaluates the strategic deepening of Turkmenistan-Turkey relations as of March 2026, following key diplomatic summits in Istanbul and Ankara.
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Trade as Leverage: Russia’s Enduring Economic Role in Armenia
This report evaluates Armenia’s trade relationship with Russia, focusing on economic interdependence and its strategic implications.
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Tajikistan: China Funding Afghan Border Security. Why Matters?
This report evaluates the strategic implications of Tajikistan’s 2026 agreement with China to construct new border infrastructure using Chinese grant funding.
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The 2026 Baden-Württemberg Election: The AfD’s Breakthrough in Germany’s Industrial Heartland
This report analyses the political and economic drivers behind the 2026 Baden-Württemberg state election and assesses its broader implications for German politics.
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US-Israel War Against Iran: A 10-Day Intelligence Brief
This report evaluates the current situation and geopolitical risks in the Middle East after ten days of the US-Israel war against Iran.
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Central Asia and the Consequences of the US-Israel War Against Iran
This report investigates the ramifications and repercussions of the US-Israeli war with Iran for the Central Asian republics.
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Escalation of Global Cyber Jihad and Multi-Front Hybrid Threats
The recent manifesto by the Cyber Jihad Movement (CJM), an al-Qaeda affiliate, signals a strategic shift toward digitised attrition against Eurasian regional state infrastructures.
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Iran–Azerbaijan Tension Amidst the Middle East War
Azerbaijan reported that drones launched from Iran struck its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on 5 March 2026, damaging civilian infrastructure and injuring residents, prompting official protests and demands for explanation.
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The Second Front: A Comprehensive Analysis of the Feasibility of a Kurdish Ground Incursion in Iran
This report evaluates the feasibility of a Kurdish ground incursion from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq into north-western Iran in the context of escalating US-Israeli military pressure on Iranian security infrastructure.
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Geoeconomic Impact of the US-Israel War Against Iran
This report assesses the geoeconomic consequences of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran as of March 2026.
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Italy–Iran Diplomatic Engagement Amid the US Israel War Against Tehran
This report assesses Italy’s diplomatic engagement with Iran following claims that US military operations linked to strikes against Iran involve facilities on Italian territory.
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Catastrophe Manager: Oman’s Role in a Fragmenting Regional Order
This report assesses the strategic implications of recent maritime attacks near Oman and evaluates whether Muscat’s long-standing neutrality can withstand intensifying regional escalation.
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Military Intelligence Benefits for China in the US-Israel War Against Iran
This report identifies the military intelligence advantages China secures from providing Tehran with military equipment amidst the war between US-Israeli forces and Iran.
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4 OSINT Tools for Monitoring Iran and the Middle East
The report identifies four open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools useful to examining US-Israel war against Iran and the situation in the Middle East.
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Pakistan-Afghanistan War and Its Impact on Islamabad’s Security Landscape
This report examines prospective threats to Islamabad’s internal stability, arising from the sustained Pakistan-Afghanistan war and the recent attacks by the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Tehrik-e Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
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Economic Impact of the Strait of Hormuz Maritime Blockade
Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz, and major aviation hubs in the UAE went offline following US-Israeli military attacks against Tehran.
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How Russian and Chinese Tech Underpins Iranian Strategic Depth
This report assesses the geopolitical ramifications of the 28 February 2026 joint US-Israeli military strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran, specifically regarding the degradation of Iranian strategic depth.
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Killing of Ali Khamenei and Kinetic Escalation in the Persian Gulf
The targeted assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026, during the joint US-Israeli attack in Tehran, has ended the longest-serving leadership era in the history of the Islamic Republic.
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Joint US-Israeli Military Offensive and Iranian Retaliatory Strikes
On 28 February 2026, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), in coordination with the United States military, started a large-scale preemptive strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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Israeli Military Attack on Iran and Regional Military Escalation
On the morning of 28 February 2026, the Israel Defence Forces started a series of preemptive strikes against targets in Tehran, prompting a nationwide state of emergency.
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Pakistan-Afghanistan “Open War”: Why Matters?
This report evaluates the outbreak of open war between Pakistan and Afghanistan in February 2026 following a significant military escalation.
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Islamic State Supporters Claimed Responsibility for the Recent Terrorist Attack in Moscow
The recent terrorist attack in Moscow has generated a dichotomy of narratives: while Russian sources have posited a Ukrainian connection, an unofficial media entity linked to the Islamic State Caucasus Province has claimed responsibility for the attack.
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Sudan’s Crucible: Navigating War Scenarios and the African Union’s Imperative
By early 2026, the Sudanese conflict had escalated into the gravest humanitarian emergency globally, with no foreseeable end. The most probable trajectory involves a state of attrition and contested fragmentation, characterised by a breakdown of central authority and a patchwork of territorial control.
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CIA Human Intelligence Recruitment and Strategic Pressure Operations Against Iran
This report evaluates the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s contemporary strategies for cultivating human intelligence assets within Iran.
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Sanctions Relief vs. Structural Reform: Assessing the Feasibility of US Capital in Iran
This report assesses the structural feasibility of large-scale United States investment in Iran’s energy and infrastructure sectors and examines the broader geopolitical consequences of such a development.
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Kandahar: The Geoeconomic Pivot and the China–Pakistan–Taliban Convergence
This report assesses Kandahar’s emergence as the primary economic and logistical node for the China–Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) 2.0 extension into Afghanistan as of early 2026.
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Al-Furqan Media Released a New Audio Showing Islamic State Strategic Realignment
Al-Furqan Media has released new audio content that outlines the Islamic State’s hierarchy for regional operations and its primary narratives.
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Increased US Diplomatic and Military Pressure Targets Iran
US President Donald Trump has issued a 10-to-15-day ultimatum to Iran to complete a nuclear agreement or face “limited” military strikes.
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Belarus Discusses Economic Opportunities with the Afghanistan
Belarus has pursued direct economic engagement with the Taliban-led Afghan government, prioritising machinery, agriculture, pharmaceuticals, and infrastructure projects.
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India-China’s Competition in Central Asia: A Geopolitical Risk Assessment
This report evaluates the shifting economic and strategic equilibrium in Central Asia, driven by the developing relationship between New Delhi and Beijing.
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Nikolai Patrushev’s Interview on the Russian Maritime Strategy: Why Matters?
This report highlights that, besides the interview’s narrative, Patrushev detailed Moscow’s future actions concerning the Russian military navy.
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Islamabad Suicide Attack: Sunni-Shia Tensions and Regional Spillover Risks
This report underscores a link between the recent terrorist attack against a Shia mosque in Islamabad and a potential re-emergence of sectarian fractures in Pakistan.
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Iran’s Possible Recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan: a Strategic Outlook
This report assesses the strategic implications of recent statements by Iran’s ambassador in Kabul, Alireza Bigdeli, regarding Tehran’s potential formal recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban’ rule.
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Terrorism in Eurasia: Geopolitical Risk Assessment 2026
In 2026, the Eurasian security framework encounters a phase of systemic volatility, marked by the dissolution of conventional counter-terrorism collaborations and the proliferation of hybrid warfare strategies contingent on narrative manipulation.
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Tajikistan Geopolitical Risk Profile 2026
Tajikistan’s internal and external risks remain medium-high in 2026 because of entrenched strong centralised government, economic weaknesses, and ongoing security tensions.
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ISKP Released Voice of Khorasan Issue 38 in Pashto Language
The Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) recently published Voice of Khorasan Issue 38 in Pashto (Khorasan Ghag) language, demonstrating a deliberate recalibration of its propaganda activity across linguistic lines.
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United States–Central Asia Economic Engagement and the B5+1 Business Forum
This report assesses recent United States–Central Asia economic engagement through the B5+1 Business Forum held in Bishkek in February 2026.
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Deepening Kazakhstan–Israel Cooperation: Economic Signals, Risks, and Strategic Effects
This report reviews the acceleration of Kazakhstan–Israel cooperation across defence, technology, and diplomacy, assessed through recent political and economic milestones.
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Iran’s Strategic Calculus in Iraq: al-Maliki, Shia Factions, and Regional Influence
This report assesses the strategic implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran of a potential return of Nouri al-Maliki to the Iraqi premiership, situating this scenario within Iraqi Shia power structures and Iran’s regional security posture.
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Russia Discussed Defence and Military Cooperation with Afghanistan
Russian Deputy Defence Minister Vasily Osmakov and Taliban Deputy Defence Minister Mohammad Farid met in Moscow on 29 January 2026 to formalise military cooperation.
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Balochistan: Violent Attacks Threaten Pakistani Security
Recent violent attacks in Balochistan have highlighted the intensified effect of local insurgencies on Pakistan’s governance in a critical region.
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Iraq: Terrorist Threat and Security Risk Assessment
This report assess the security and terrorism risks in Iraq in the last year related to the Islamic State’s activities, the situation in Syria, and increasing activity of Iran-aligned militia groups.
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Iran-Turkey Diplomatic Engagement Amidst Increasing Regional Geopolitical Risk
Turkey has attempting to mediate between Iran and the United States to avoid a military conflict whose consequences will affect directly Ankara.
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Russia FSB Eliminated Islamic State Supporters in Dagestan
The Russian Federal Security Service’s neutralisation of two Islamic State supporters in Dagestan underscored the persistent security threats within the North Caucasian region and the capacity of extremist propaganda and recruitment networks to infiltrate local communities.
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US Possible Military Attack Against Iran: SWOT Analysis
Executive Summary This report assesses the strategic viability, risks, and second-order implications of a potential US military intervention against Iran.
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Armenia and the TRIPP Corridor: Russia’s Calculated Risk in the South Caucasus
This report assesses Armenia’s decision to advance the TRIPP corridor by restoring a dormant Soviet-era rail section linking Azerbaijan to Nakhchivan via Armenian territory, within a context of accelerating geopolitical realignment towards the West.
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Abkhazia: Detention of British National Accused of Spying Local Defence Infrastructure
Executive Summary This report examines the 26 January 2026 detention and expulsion of British national Kuldip Singh by the Abkhaz State Security Service (SGB) for suspected espionage.
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Al-Hawl: The Forgotten Regional Jihadist Hub in Syria and Its New Global Posture
The purpose of this report is to underscore how the change of power in this very specific section of Syria may connect Islamic State militias from the Middle East to the Khorasan by using the al-Hawl refugees camp as a logistic hub.
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Georgia’s Joint Customs Initiative with Armenia and Azerbaijan: Economic Signalling and Implications for Caucasus Stability
This report assesses Georgia’s recent agreement to establish joint customs checkpoints with Armenia and Azerbaijan and its broader strategy to position itself as a regional logistics hub.
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Al-Naba 531: Analysis of Islamic State Propaganda and Security Instability in Northern Syria
The Islamic State, via al-Naba 531, continues its propaganda campaign focused on recent developments in Syria to undermine the al-Sharaa government’s authority, especially during its handover of high-security detention centres.
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Syrian Escalation, Extremist Risks, and Kurdistan’s Economic and Diplomatic Positioning
This report assesses security-driven risks affecting the Kurdistan Region (particularly from neighbouring Syria) and their economic and strategic implications.
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Middle East Security Alert: US Force Projection and Iranian Calculus
This report evaluates the current US military repositioning toward the Middle East against Iran amid rising tensions, including Trump’s open advocacy for regime change in Tehran.
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The Islamic State’s Attack in Kabul Threatens Chinese Interests and the Taliban Governance
The Islamic State terrorist attack at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul confirms the Taliban’s inability to control the territory and undermines the Chinese economic interests in the country.
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Astrakhan as a Regional Gateway: Russia Strengthens Afghan Economic Integration
The report analyses the 3rd Astrakhan International Forum, highlighting Russia’s strategic initiative to position Astrakhan as a regional trade and logistics hub connecting the INSTC with emerging markets and Afghanistan.
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Caught in the Middle: Armenia between the United States and Iran
This assessment analyses how renewed United States tariffs on countries trading with Tehran, combined with internal instability in Iran, affect Armenia’s economic resilience and strategic posture.
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Al-Naba 530: Islamic State Attacked al-Sharaa Administration and the Kurdish Reform in Syria
The Islamic State has launched a strategic ideological offensive via the editorial of al-Naba Issue 530, specifically designed to exploit domestic fractures following President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s issuance of Decree No. 13.
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Caucasus Geopolitical Risk 2026
The Caucasus region enters 2026 in a state of profound transformation, characterised by the shift from traditional “frozen conflicts” to a high-stakes competition over transcontinental trade corridors.
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Iran’s Struggle: Economy, Unrest, and Power
This report assesses the drivers, dynamics, and strategic implications of the current wave of arrests and nationwide unrest in Iran amid acute economic collapse and heightened external pressure.
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The Turkish Great Game in Afghanistan Between Opportunities and Challenges
This report highlights Turkey’s Great Game in Afghanistan and the linked opportunities and challenges for Ankara’s engagement with the Taliban.
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Is Russia Ready to Intervene in the Current Iranian Protests to Support Tehran?
This report examines Russia’s readiness to assist Iran in suppressing the protests by analysing the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran.
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Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Risk 2026
This report evaluates geopolitical risks in Asia-Pacific in 2026, focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China.
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The CARVER Matrix in Strategic Targeting and Intelligence Assessment
The CARVER Matrix provides a rigorous analytical framework for military intelligence, special operations planning, and strategic targeting.
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Adygea: FSB Arrested a Central Asian Citizen Accused of Terrorism
Executive Summary This report assesses the recent disruption of a terrorist plot in Maikop, Republic of Adygea, by the Federal Security Service (FSB).
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Venezuela Crisis and Eurasian Reverberations: Scenarios Assessment
The extrajudicial capture of President Nicolás Maduro by United States special operations forces represents a fundamental shift in the global security architecture, signalling a return to high-risk, kinetic regime change as a core instrument of Washington’s foreign policy.
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Could Iran Disrupt Gulf Oil and Gas Shipments if a New Conflict Arises with Israel and The US?
This report explains whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz considering a potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.
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Middle East Security Without a Stable Anchor. Managing Regional Risk in an Era of US Political Volatility
This report examines the impact of increasing political volatility within the United States on Middle East security dynamics, highlighting a decline in US predictability as a key risk factor.
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Iran: Macroeconomic Securitisation and the Pivot to “War-Time” Governance
The Iranian state is formalising a transition to a “war conditions” framework under Article 79, signalling a shift toward emergency command-and-control measures to address the systemic exhaustion of fiscal buffers and the “terminal volatility” of the rial.
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Iran: Protests and Economic Problems Threaten the Internal Stability
The internal security situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has reached a critical threshold as localised economic grievances coalesce into broader political defiance.
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The New Opium Afghan Road and the Reshaping of Criminal Networks in Central Asia
This report seeks to demonstrate how the inability to control drug trafficking and its expansion in Central Asia presents another major challenge for the current de facto Taliban government, although the movement ban the opium cultivation in 2022.
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Middle East Geopolitical Risk 2026
This report evaluates the Middle East’s geopolitical risk for 2026, a year defined by the precarious “armed peace” following the 2025 Israel-Iran kinetic escalation and the first anniversary of the Syrian transition.
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Trace Labs OSINT Virtual Machine: December 2025 Release Assessment
This report evaluates the December 2025 release of the Trace Labs OSINT Virtual Machine (VM) and its application in the field of online investigation.
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Central Asia Geopolitical Risk 2026
Central Asia will enter 2026 with relative surface stability because of better regional coordination and no immediate interstate conflict.
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Putin’s 2025 Address and Russia’s Military, Political and Economic Framework
This report analyses President Vladimir Putin’s “Results of the Year” address, delivered on December 19, 2025.
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Kyrgyzstan Expands Economic Engagement with Afghanistan, Opening a Trade House in Kabul
This report examines Kyrgyzstan’s strategic expansion of economic engagement with Afghanistan through the establishment of a permanent Trade House in Kabul, assessing its political, economic, and security implications.
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Project Management Principles as a Foundational Framework for Intelligence and Security Analysis
This report examines the structural convergence between project-management principles and the methodologies employed in intelligence analysis, threat assessment, and corporate-security practices.
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Saturday, 11 April 2026
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