Category: Monitoring & Analysis

Our OSINT report shows that a segment of Azerbaijani society or Azeri Diaspora in the post-Soviet space on different Telegram channels in Russian language exhibits pronounced sentiments of Armenophobia, manifesting in a discernible hostility towards Armenians in occasion of the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis.

Since the Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan and considering recent developments within Pakistan, the regional security landscape has witnessed a discernible deterioration, primarily because of the escalating terrorist menace emanating from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).

Erdogan’s planned visit to Nakhchivan following Baku’s military offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh has raised significant concerns regarding the territorial integrity of Armenia since Azerbaijan and Turkey may actively seek to establish the conditions for a potential military intervention in Armenia’s Syunik Province, with the ultimate aim of securing the Zangezur Corridor.

The recent capitulation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the face of Azerbaijan’s military offensive has brought to light Russia’s recalibrated strategic approach in the region. This shift focuses on forging a robust alliance with both Baku and Ankara, a move designed to bolster the INSTC and leverage Turkish land as a potential hub for its new energy approach.

The Azerbaijani military incursion into the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh has brought to light Italy’s precarious foreign policy in the South Caucasus. Driven by a web of Rome’s imperatives and constraints, the Italian government finds itself torn between justifying Azerbaijan’s regional strategy and acknowledging the resulting humanitarian crisis and civilian casualties.

The recent military operation conducted by Azerbaijan against the defence forces in the Republic of Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh attests to the prevailing instability within the South Caucasus region. This development has sounded alarm bells amongst both international and regional stakeholders, who are now confronted with the prospect of a renewed conflict in this highly sensitive geopolitical theatre.

The establishment of the Dagestan National Centre in Russia and the Dagestan Volunteer Battalion ‘Imam Shamil’ in Ukraine underscores the reverberations of the Ukraine conflict in the North Caucasus. This development highlights a substantial threat emanating from various movements and organisations, advocating for the destabilisation and fragmentation of the Russian Federation.

Russia’s concerted efforts in Kyrgyzstan, focused on supporting local educational and humanitarian initiatives, represent a significant augmentation of its soft power and cultural influence in the region. The cornerstone of this strategy lies in the establishment of Russian language schools in Kyrgyzstan, a project actively backed by Moscow.

The strategic positioning of the Khorasan region is pivotal for the facilitation of trade and cultural interchange with adjacent nations. In this regard, implementing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) might strengthen the relations between Afghanistan and Iran.

The recent business mission conducted by Stavropol-based companies to Abkhazia signified a noteworthy advancement with extensive ramifications for both Sukhum and Pyatigorsk. This exchange also highlights Pyatigors’ approach to promote foreign business ventures for the Russian Federation.

Turkmenistan and Pakistan seek to confirm and expand their cooperation, notably in the domain of energy cooperation, with a focal emphasis on the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) natural gas pipeline project.

The collaborative efforts in the tourism sector and Chinese investments in Iranian free economic zones and infrastructure are fortifying the economic ties between Beijing and Tehran

The 10th Cooperation Forum China – Central Asia, held recently in Xiamen, underscored Beijing’s strategic approach in the region and highlighted Central Asian nations’ imperative to enhance their connectivity and collaboration with the Chinese market.

SpecialEurasia in collaborazione con Mondo Internazionale ASP e MInter Group srl organizza un webinar dal titolo “Dinamiche geopolitiche e sociali nel Caucaso contemporaneo: sfide attuali e sviluppi futuri” il cui obiettivo è quello di analizzare l’attuale situazione della regione focalizzando l’attenzione sulle problematiche e le opportunità insite nelle dinamiche locali caucasiche.

The recent meeting between the Iranian ambassador in Rome and the managers of selected Italian companies underscores a significant potential for economic cooperation between the two parties. Tehran’s keen interest in attracting foreign investors and companies, particularly those from Italy, is palpable.

In the ongoing contest between Russia and Ukraine for endorsement from the Islamic world, the North Caucasus emerges as a critical asset in the Kremlin’s strategic arsenal. It serves as a linchpin for Moscow’s domestic political efforts in managing a diverse, multireligious, and multiethnic society, while also underpinning Russia’s foreign policy activities directed towards the Arab-Muslim world.

The recent bilateral meeting between Kazakh and Xinjiang authorities substantiated the collaborative commitment between Astana and Beijing, highlighting the pivotal role that the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) may assume in bolstering regional connectivity and facilitating the realisation of the Belt and Road Initiative.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have taken significant steps towards improving their diplomatic relations by appointing respective ambassadors to Tehran and Riyadh. This development marks a historic milestone in the restoration of relations between the two countries.

The conference held in Baku on the Jewish community of the Caucasus underscored the positive state of relations between Azerbaijan and Israel. Notably, it shed light on Baku’s strategic use of cultural diplomacy to foster stronger ties with Tel Aviv and garner support from the global Jewish community.

The “Business Springboard” competition, which has been organised by Visa, demonstrates the significant interest foreign entities hold for the SMEs sector in Kazakhstan. It unequivocally signifies their commitment to solidifying their footprint in the local market and forging enduring relationships with the burgeoning community of small and medium enterprises.

Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statements on Armenia’s ‘erroneous’ dependence on Russia may reflect a new direction in Yerevan’s foreign policy, signalling a desire to seek alternative solutions, particularly by cultivating stronger relationships with Western nations

The forthcoming CSTO exercises in Belarus serve as a clear demonstration of the organisation’s strategic commitment to safeguarding its member states, focusing particularly on protecting Moscow and Minsk from potential external threats originating from Europe.

The complex landscape of Iran’s struggle with Kurdish nationalism unfolds as the Iranian leadership confronts secessionist groups along its borders. Amidst international interests and internal challenges, the fight against terrorism, potential destabilisation, and regional alliances shape Tehran’s multifaceted approach to counter these issues.

In an increasingly interconnected and multipolar world, the recent Busan Economic Forum has confirmed Seoul and the Central Asian republics’ interests to strengthen economic and trade relations, positioning South Korea amidst a dynamic landscape shaped by global powers as well as pivotal regional actors.

The progression of Saudi Arabia’s nuclear energy initiative has prompted speculation within the international community. As the world’s foremost petroleum producer, the nation’s decision to engage with nuclear power facilities may seem unanticipated.

Nel contesto geopolitico attuale, caratterizzato dal conflitto ucraino e dallo scontro tra Bruxelles e Mosca, l’incremento dell’export europeo verso l’Armenia ha sollevato dubbi sulla possibilità che questo permetta di aggirare le sanzioni, dilemma che però non coinvolge il vicino Stato azerbaigiano la cui politica estera sfrutta il supporto europeo, ma non tralascia gli accordi commerciali con la Russia.

The Astrakhan region has historically served as a significant centre of Russian presence in the Caspian region for centuries. Since the late 20th century, following the geopolitical shifts caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Astrakhan’s role in Russia’s Caspian policy has acquired considerable prominence.