Introduction

The military’s PACE framework is an excellent tool for geopolitical analysis. Originally designed to ensure resilient communications and logistics on the battlefield, geopolitical strategist can adapt it to assess how nation-states, corporations, or alliances will navigate political, economic, or security crises.

In the geopolitical context, the framework is flipped. While a soldier uses PACE to plan for surviving channel disruptions, the geopolitical analyst uses it to study where an actor turns when their first-choice geopolitical strategy fails.

This report aims at adapting the PACE framework into the realm of geopolitical analysis and geopolitical risk assessment. Firstly, we provide an overview of PACE (Primary, Alternate, Contingency, Emergency) framework in the field of military intelligence and communication and then we adapt it for geopolitical strategist.

Context

The PACE framework is a military methodology for communications planning that establishes an order of precedence for fallback systems. Standing for Primary, Alternate, Contingency, and Emergency, it ensures units maintain command and control (C2) during operations even if the main communication channel fails or is jammed.

The framework dictates a cascading priority of communication methods, moving from the most ideal to the last resort

P – Primary: The preferred, most capable, and reliable communication method. It generally offers the highest bandwidth, longest range, or most secure encryption for daily operations.

A – Alternate: The first backup system. It is usually a similar technology to the primary but may operate on a different frequency or network. It is nearly as effective as the primary but acts as the immediate substitute if the first method drops

C – Contingency: The fallback method used when both the Primary and Alternate systems are unavailable or compromised. This is often a slower, less ideal, or shorter-range technology that requires users to sacrifice some capability or data speed to get the message through.

E – Emergency: The absolute last resort. This is used when all other methods have failed or are jammed. It is usually the most inconvenient, costly, or time-consuming method, but guarantees the critical message or distress signal will be transmitted.

PACE Framework for Geopolitics

Geopolitics investigates the impacts of geographical characteristics on a State’s domestic and foreign policy. Applying the PACE framework in geopolitical analysis means studying the different level of engagement and strategic objectives that a country has. We can follow this structure:

Primary: The actor’s first-choice strategy, main alliance, or preferred economic partner.

Alternate: A secondary strategy or partner that is readily available if the Primary becomes too costly or collapses.

Contingency: A pre-planned, less efficient fallback option that requires more resources to maintain but ensures basic survival (e.g., state resilience).

Emergency: The absolute last resort; an extreme measure executed to prevent system collapse, even at a massive cost to prestige or economy.

To use this system, the analyst must evaluate a specific state or actor across these four tiers for any given objective (such as foreign policy, energy, defence, or trade).

• Scenario: Energy Security
  • Primary: Importing natural gas via direct, undersea pipelines from a neighbouring country.
  • Alternate: Importing Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) via long-term contracts from a politically stable ally (e.g., U.S. Energy Information Administration).
  • Contingency: Ramping up domestic coal/nuclear production and restarting mothballed power plants to reduce foreign reliance.
  • Emergency: Rationing power, seizing private energy reserves, and enacting emergency wartime economic controls.
• Scenario: Trade & Supply Chains (e.g., Microchips)
  • Primary: Importing advanced chips directly from a leading global producer.
  • Alternate: Shifting manufacturing to friendly-shored allied partners (as tracked by CSIS).
  • Contingency: Expanding older, domestic semiconductor fabrication plants to meet critical infrastructure needs.
  • Emergency: Industrial espionage, aggressive tariffs, or blockades in an attempt to secure critical intellectual property or physical supply routes by force.

While PACE is great for assessing strategic resilience and fallback options, the analyst can use other comprehensive models for broader geopolitical and environmental analysis such as:

• PMESII-PT: A framework used in intelligence to break down a state’s operational environment into eight distinct systems: Political, Military, Economic, Social, Information, Infrastructure, Physical Environment, and T
• DIME: A model evaluating a nation’s instruments of national power: Diplomatic, Information, Military, and E

Why apply PACE to Geopolitics?

Applying the PACE framework to the analysis prevents linear thinking. It forces the analyst to look beyond a country’s public statements and identify their structural backups and network of contacts and engagement.

By mapping out an adversary’s Emergency or Contingency steps, the geopolitical strategist can better anticipate their behaviour under pressure and accurately gauge their overall strategic vulnerability.