Executive Summary
The report assesses Russian security by analysing recent data from the FSB and NAC regarding terrorism threats and violent trends within the nation in 2025.
In 2025, the Russian Federation experienced a noticeable surge in terrorist and violent threats, specifically those involving the North Caucasus and Ukrainian-linked entities that targeted transportation and energy infrastructures.
Counterterrorism measures led to the prevention of hundreds of attacks, the detention of over 2,000 individuals, and the disruption of financial and arms networks supporting extremist activities.
Terrorist activity persists in the North Caucasus, and the recruitment of youth and foreign labour migrants poses an ongoing security threat.
Key Takeaways
- Terrorist activities and recruitment efforts increased in 2025, highlighting the persistent threat to domestic security.
- The coordinated efforts of state entities successfully neutralised large-scale attacks and disrupted financial and arms networks related to terrorism.
- The North Caucasus and border regions remain areas of heightened operational concern for Russian security services.
Background Information
On December 9, 2025, under the leadership of FSB Director Alexander V. Bortnikov, the National Anti-Terrorism Committee (NAC) convened a joint session with the Federal Operational Staff (FOS) to review the 2025 operational year and set priorities for the subsequent year. The Prosecutor General, presidential envoys, federal authorities, and security services attended the meeting.
According to the FSB’s assessments, there has been a notable surge in attacks attributed to Ukrainian intelligence and related armed units, largely employing unmanned aerial systems against transport and energy infrastructure (Russian authorities classify Ukrainian operations as terrorist activities regulated under Federal Law).
Cross-border attacks persisted, with incursions by sabotage-reconnaissance groups reported. According to the FSB, Western intelligence agencies are involved in influencing the techniques of explosive and toxic device deployment, and recruitment efforts increasingly focused on young Russians and foreign labour migrants.
Operational results in 2025 included the prevention of 374 terrorist crimes, the neutralisation of 24 individuals, and over 2,000 detentions. In the North Caucasus, five counterterrorism operations and 164 special events disrupted the activities of 332 militants. Security services dismantled 29 illegal arms trafficking channels, 113 workshops for weapon modification, and 87 organised crime groups linked to contraband. Seizures included over 200 portable missile systems, 147,000 rounds of ammunition, and 1,500 explosive devices.
Financial interventions froze accounts and blocked operations worth 490 million roubles across 5,500 individuals connected to terrorist activities. Cyber operations removed over 37,000 online materials promoting terrorism and radical ideologies.
The government continues to fortify legal and operational defences to safeguard vital infrastructure, particularly within the transport and energy domains. Preventative measures aim to address ideological influence within the youth demographic, while collaboration with international partners and involvement in multilateral organisations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) facilitate the exchange of counterterrorism strategies.
Why Does It Matter?
The rise in terrorist activities shows that the Russian Federation is experiencing multifaceted security challenges, both externally and domestically.
Ukrainian-backed operations have shown Kyiv can project asymmetric threats into Russian territory, exposing weaknesses in essential infrastructure including transport and energy systems. These attacks (operations related to the Ukraine conflict) and recruitment initiatives aimed at young people indicate that ideological influence may infiltrate domestic populations, possibly generating protracted societal and political dangers.
The persistence of violence in the North Caucasus underscores the ongoing operational challenge in regions historically affected by militancy. Residual groups maintain local networks and knowledge, enabling recurring attacks, necessitating sustained, targeted operations. Concurrently, the focus on financial disruption, arms interdiction, and cyber countermeasures underlines Moscow’s active effort to undermine the operational and logistical capabilities of terrorist entities.
These events cause adjustments in resource distribution for the Russian authorities, necessitating a balance between immediate tactical responses and long-term preventive measures.
Part of Moscow’s wider plan to prevent radicalisation and curb recruitment involves interacting with young people and migrant groups, while collaboration with other countries provides intelligence and operational help. These measures suggest Russia is likely to maintain aggressive counterterrorism operations, integrate ideological and informational campaigns, and prioritise protection of infrastructure as a central component of national security strategy.
Risk Outlook
We can assess security risks within the Russian Federation as low-medium. However, in border regions next to Ukraine, the Southern Federal District, and the North Caucasus, elevated threats of terrorism and violence may persist, increasing localised security risks.
Russia’s ability to lessen these dangers hinges on what happens in Ukraine, particularly considering the current discussions about a potential peace agreement between Moscow and Kyiv, which Washington is facilitating.
In the North Caucasus, Moscow’s financial backing and the strategy to build up regional tourism and logistics are crucial for improving living standards and preventing youth from seeking opportunities elsewhere.
To face imminent threats coming from Ukrainian-intelligence operations and terrorist organisations, the Kremlin will continue to broaden counterterrorism operations, financial interventions, and ideological control measures. Recruitment of youth and foreign labour migrants remains a critical vulnerability that the state will address through preventive programming and information control.
In the short term, Russia can prioritise infrastructures’ protection, international cooperation, and intelligence sharing to address security threats and increase the government’s capacity to control its territory.
