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CSTO Strategic Reinforcement of the Tajik-Afghan Border
This report examines recent CSTO and Dushanbe’s efforts to bolster security on the Tajik-Afghan border, as the situation in northern Afghanistan worsens. Regional concerns about rising terrorism and illicit activity in Afghanistan’s border provinces pushed CSTO to start the first phase of its longstanding program.
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Tajik Taliban Commanders Arrested in Afghanistan Underline the Movement’s Internal Frictions
This report examines the recent arrests of ethnic Tajik Taliban commanders in northern Afghanistan, highlighting emerging internal rifts within the movement, particularly between the Kandahar leadership and the Haqqani Network, and potential instability in historically restive regions, such as Takhar and Badakhshan.
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Afghanistan New Geopolitical Game Among Russia, US, and China’s Strategies
In April 2025, Afghanistan has re-emerged as a critical node in regional and global geopolitics, shaped by intensifying engagement from Russia and China, and potential covert re-entry of US intelligence. These developments reflect a growing contest for strategic positioning in post-withdrawal Afghanistan, with significant implications for regional security dynamics.
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Unconfirmed CIA Visit in Afghanistan Increased Pressure on the Taliban
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
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Kazakhstan and Turkey’s Growing Role in Afghanistan Through Agricultural and Humanitarian Cooperation
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
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Security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Pakistani Counterterrorism Operations Result in Casualties
Recent security operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, have resulted in significant casualties. Separate clashes in Dera Ismail Khan and North Waziristan killed four Pakistani soldiers and 15 militants.
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Water, Security, and Cooperation: Iran and Afghanistan Address the Helmand River Dispute
This report examines the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan, focusing on shared challenges and opportunities in the areas of water management, security, and migration. The ongoing dispute over the Helmand River’s water allocation represents a critical element of their relationship.
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Afghanistan: the Killing of a Chinese Worker Might Compromise the Sino-Taliban Relations
This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan, focusing specifically on the Sino-Taliban relationship. The analysis considers the role of militant groups operating across the border and forecasts potential outcomes that could affect China’s strategic objectives in Central Asia and its broader regional influence.
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China’s Increasing Interests in the Wakhan Corridor
This report outlines recent developments regarding the Wakhan Corridor, specifically focusing on the increasing Chinese presence in the region. The visit of three Chinese military intelligence officers to the Wakhan Corridor is a significant event showing Beijing’s increasing strategic focus on the region.
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Iran-Afghanistan Relations: Emerging Dynamics and Challenges
The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.
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Tajikistan-Pakistan’s Growing Trade Impacts Regional Dynamics
The report analyses recent economic and security developments between Tajikistan and Pakistan, highlighting the implications of their expanding bilateral relations.
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Afghanistan: Taliban Celebrated 3 Years of Their Rule Amid Security Problems
This report evaluates the implications of Taliban’s third anniversary celebrations amid persistent security threats from groups like the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) and assesses the Taliban’s ability to maintain stability in Afghanistan.
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“Drone Jihad” and Training Centre in Afghanistan
Some sources indicate that terrorists, trained in a specialised UAV centre in Kunduz, Afghanistan, plan to execute attacks during the 2024 Paris Olympics. The existing threat of “drone jihad”, potentially involving graduates from the centre already present in Europe, requires urgent and stringent counterterrorism measures.
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Analysis of the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan’s Video Message “Followers of al-Yahud”
Al Azaim Foundation, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) media wing, recently released a video titled “Followers of the Jews” that represents a strategic attempt to undermine the Taliban’s religious authority in Afghanistan.
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Intelligence Brief: Afghanistan Between Security Threats and Regional Economic Cooperation
This intelligence brief provides timely information on recent events in Afghanistan, including the attack on a mosque in Herat province and developments in transit and trade infrastructure, as well as potential cooperation in the mining sector between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan.