Executive Summary
Within the larger context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, this report studies Russia’s current geopolitical manoeuvring in the Arab and Muslim world.
Moscow could use the growing divisions stemming from Tel Aviv’s attack on Tehran to strengthen ties with Arab and Muslim nations. Moscow leverages historical relations, ongoing security cooperation, and economic initiatives, including Islamic banking, to enhance its influence.
The Kremlin’s domestic management of Islam, its participation in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation, and events such as the KazanForum 2025 demonstrate the Kremlin’s broader strategy to strengthen its presence and partnership with Arab countries and counter Western influence.
Key Takeaways
- Russia leverages Israeli-Iranian tensions to bolster its partnerships in the Gulf.
- Moscow’s engagement with Islamic finance and the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation signals its deeper Arab-Muslim outreach.
- Growing Kremlin ties with Arab states threaten EU influence and energy security.
Strategic Context
The Israeli-Iranian conflict has intensified global polarisation, with the United States and parts of Europe backing Israel’s right to self-defence. Conversely, numerous Arab-Muslim states, including Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, criticised the Israeli attack and showed solidarity with Tehran. Russia, while condemning this as well, might turn the division to its advantage.
Russian-Arab relations have historical depth, dating back to Soviet support during Arab-Israeli conflicts. Following a period of reduced involvement after the Soviet Union’s collapse, Moscow revived its Middle Eastern policy in the late 1990s. Today, Russia maintains strong ties with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Oman, Egypt, and other Arab states.
Counter-terrorism cooperation includes Moscow’s bilateral collaboration with several Arab nations. Notable agreements include joint task forces with Egypt and the UAE, intelligence sharing with Saudi Arabia, and anti-terrorism cooperation with Oman.
In the context of the Ukraine conflict, Arab states adopted a neutral stance, resisting Western pressure to sanction Russia while engaging in humanitarian and negotiation efforts. The Arab League has positioned itself as a neutral partner, favouring peaceful conflict resolution while maintaining relations with both Moscow and Kyiv.
Domestically, Russia manages a significant Muslim population, estimated at 20 million, with Islam designated as the country’s second-largest religion. Economically, Russia started an Islamic banking pilot programme in September 2023 across Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, and Dagestan. This program seeks to introduce Islamic financial products, boost regional economic growth, and draw investment from the Gulf.
In May 2025, Kazan hosted the Russia–Islamic World: KazanForum 2025, gathering delegations from 74 countries and 61 Russian regions. The forum, now holding federal status, serves as a platform to strengthen Moscow’s connections with the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation and promote economic, scientific, and cultural cooperation.
Geopolitical Scenarios and Forecasts
- Russia Strengthened Strategic Partnership with the Arab World. Russia and some Arab and Muslim Gulf states might form stronger alliances because of the Israeli-Iranian conflict. Common opposition to Israeli policies and Western actions could strengthen economic, political, and security cooperation.
- Erosion of Western Influence. Continued Western military support for Israel against Iran could fuel Arab-Muslim resentment, creating an opportunity for Russia to exploit the resulting dissatisfaction. By portraying itself as a more consistent and respectful partner, Moscow could strengthen its political and economic ties with Arab states, redirecting energy partnerships and undermining the European Union’s access to vital oil and gas supplies, reshaping power balances in the multipolar system.
- Managed Balancing Act. To maintain equilibrium, certain Arab states may adopt a cautious stance in their dealings with Russia, the United States, and other regional players. Balancing cooperation with Moscow on trade and security against the risks of Western countermeasures, they may choose a path of partial alignment to retain strategic autonomy.
Recommendations
Moscow’s deepening engagement with the Arab-Muslim world represents a strategic manoeuvre with significant geopolitical consequences.
Key areas for monitoring Russia include its energy and financial dealings with Gulf monarchies, the expansion of Islamic banking, and any changes in military or security cooperation.
Several triggers demand immediate attention: newly announced bilateral agreements, significant diplomatic visits, increased Gulf investment in Russian infrastructure, and Arab states’ responses to further Western military aid to Israel.
Russia’s growing influence with dissatisfied Arab states could gradually weaken the West’s power, especially in energy and security, hastening the shift toward a multipolar world.
