Executive Summary
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa.
In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities, following years of military engagement against the Assad regime. The group, composed mainly of North Caucasian foreign fighters, accuses the new government of betrayal and arbitrary arrests.
While a consistent part of the group has largely shifted to Ukraine, its remaining presence in Syria underscores the risks posed by disillusioned foreign fighters in an unstable security environment.
Key Takeaways
- Ajnad al-Kavkaz claims the Syrian interim government unjustly persecutes and excludes them, disregarding their past efforts against Assad.
- North Caucasian foreign fighters in Syria remain a security threat because of their jihadist past and failure to integrate.
- Ajnad al-Kavkaz’s narrative reflects broader dissatisfaction among foreign fighters who perceive the new Syrian leadership as politically hostile or ideologically divergent.
Background Information
A few days ago, Ajnad al-Kavkaz released a statement accusing the current Syrian government under the leadership of Ahmed al-Sharaa (formerly known as Abu Mohammad al-Julani) of persecuting Muslim brothers who fought against Assad’s regime.
Ajnad al-Kavkaz (AK) is a Chechen-led Salafi jihadist group that emerged from former fighters of the Caucasus Emirate. Abdul Hakim al-Shishani (Rustam Azhiev) established the group in 2015, attracting several militants from the North Caucasus, especially Chechnya. Ajnad al-Kavkaz primarily operated in the Latakia, Idlib, and Aleppo governorates, participating in battles including the Second Battle of Idlib and offensives in Latakia.
From late 2022, a significant portion of the group’s fighters, including its leadership, moved to Ukraine to join the Shaykh Mansur Battalion, participating in operations against Russian forces. However, some members of Ajnad al-Kavkaz remained in Syria to fight against Assad’s forces backed by the Russian Federation.
Ajnad al-Kavkaz’s Statement Against al-Sharaa
The group publicly condemned what it called the authorities’ unjustified repression under Ahmed al-Sharaa, former leader of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, who gained power in Syria after overthrowing Assad.
Although they fought alongside Syrian rebels against Assad, the group says they are now facing arbitrary detention and coercion.
As the Islamic State denounced before, also Ajnad al-Kavkaz accused al-Sharaa’s government of betrayal. It argues that its members are suffering unjustified punishment for their involvement in the early parts of the Syrian war. This message seeks to maintain the group’s credibility within jihadist circles and among foreign fighter supporters, while also discrediting the new Syrian leadership as both politically biased and ideologically inconsistent.
Ajnad al-Kavkaz also criticises the interim government’s efforts to normalise the political situation, claiming al-Sharaa’s embrace of democracy undermines jihadist goals. The narrative seeks to galvanise support among alienated groups in opposition to the government’s increasing centralisation.
Strategic Context
Following the Assad’s regime fall, Ahmed al-Sharaa and its closest allies inside Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) dominate the current power and military structure in Syria. HTS may have rebranded with a focus on governance, but internal security in Alawite-populated areas like Latakia and Tartus remains vulnerable.
Foreign fighters in the Syrian territory pose operational risks. North Caucasian fighters, some from Ajnad al-Kavkaz, seem to have resisted joining the new Syrian military forces because of Damascus’ current foreign policy aimed at normalising relations with Israel and the West.
The interim leadership is reportedly conducting arrests and intimidation campaigns against these elements, leading to renewed tensions.
Since al-Sharaa’s rise to power in Damascus, the Islamic State has several times accused the new interim government of apostasy and called “the real Muslims” to join the group and fight against the former HTS members.
Risk and Constraints
The repression of North Caucasian fighters in Syria could provoke retaliation and further destabilise already volatile areas. Ajnad al-Kavkaz’s legacy of armed violence, combined with its ideological orientation, makes the group a credible threat if pushed towards renewed militancy.
The Syrian government’s approach to side-lining non-compliant jihadist groups is operationally risky. Reluctant to join the new Syrian forces, foreign fighters might create independent groups, defy central authority, or work with other extremist organisations such as the Islamic State. These developments could weaken al-Sharaa’s control and exacerbate local insecurity.
Ajnad al-Kavkaz’s story of betrayal, combine with previous Islamic State’s statements, might find an audience among other disillusioned foreign fighters, strengthening anti-government sentiment in opposition territory. This could create additional fractures within Syria’s already fragmented armed structures.
Forecast and Scenarios
- Baseline Scenario (Persistent Low-Intensity Threat). North Caucasian fighters in Syria maintain a low operational profile but continue to reject integration. Sporadic clashes and minor assaults are possible, especially in outlying areas with limited government presence.
- Escalation Scenario (Insurgency Revival). Further crackdowns or missteps in dealing with Ajnad al-Kavkaz could reignite armed conflict. The group could attract other disenfranchised fighters, leading to a new insurgent coalition hostile to the Syrian interim government and its governance model. The Islamic State can exploit the group’s disappointment to attract the North Caucasian fighters among its rank and create a strong front against al-Sharaa.
- Stabilisation Scenario and Threat for Europe. Effective intelligence operations and targeted demobilisation could further reduce the group’s influence in Syria. The North Caucasian foreign fighters, losing support and operational activities in the Syrian territory, might move to Ukraine and join with their former brothers in arms, posing an additional threat to the European security.
