Category: United States
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Middle East Security Alert: US Force Projection and Iranian Calculus
This report evaluates the current US military repositioning toward the Middle East against Iran amid rising tensions, including Trump’s open advocacy for regime change in Tehran.
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Asia-Pacific Geopolitical Risk 2026
This report evaluates geopolitical risks in Asia-Pacific in 2026, focusing on the rivalry between the United States and China.
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Venezuela Crisis and Eurasian Reverberations: Scenarios Assessment
The extrajudicial capture of President Nicolás Maduro by United States special operations forces represents a fundamental shift in the global security architecture, signalling a return to high-risk, kinetic regime change as a core instrument of Washington’s foreign policy.
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Could Iran Disrupt Gulf Oil and Gas Shipments if a New Conflict Arises with Israel and The US?
This report explains whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz considering a potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.
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Middle East Security Without a Stable Anchor. Managing Regional Risk in an Era of US Political Volatility
This report examines the impact of increasing political volatility within the United States on Middle East security dynamics, highlighting a decline in US predictability as a key risk factor.
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Kazakhstan and the Abraham Accords: A Look Ahead
Kazakhstan announced its intention to join the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit in Washington D.C. to attend the “Central Asia + United States” Summit.
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Prospective U.S. Air Base in Syria: Strategic Implications, Risks and Regional Impact
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
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China–Taliban Engagement over Bagram Air Base to Counter US Strategy
This report assesses China’s invitation to Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoub Mujahid against the backdrop of US interest in regaining access to Bagram Air Base.
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The Bagram Factor: US Posturing and the Future of Iran’s Regional Integration
This report assesses Iran’s developing strategic posture amid renewed geopolitical encirclement, with a focus on the implications of a potential US return to Bagram airbase, regional infrastructure realignments, and shifting alliances in South and Central Asia.
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United States’ Aspiration on Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan: Risk Assessment
This report examines the connection between Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the US to control Bagram Air Base and the changing political and economic landscape of Afghanistan.
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C5+1 Secretariat Meeting in Dushanbe: Washington Confirms Its Strategic Engagement in Central Asia
This report analyses the geopolitical dynamics and economic significance of the meeting, which gathered senior officials from Central Asian states and the U.S. Department of State convened in Dushanbe under the C5+1 format.
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Trump–Putin Summit in Alaska: Geopolitical Implications and Strategic Narratives
This report analyses the geopolitical significance of the meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin in Anchorage, Alaska, on August 15, 2025.
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US-Armenia Military Drills “Eagle Partner 2025” and Strategic Implications in the South Caucasus
This report investigates the geopolitical and regional outcomes and implications of the joint Armenia–US military exercises, Eagle Partner 2025, focusing on Yerevan’s domestic and external constraints and Russian leverages.
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US-Brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan Peace Deal and the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity
Executive Summary This report examines the peace agreement signed at the White House between Armenia and Azerbaijan, brokered by US President Donald Trump.
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Regional Defence Conference in Islamabad and US participation: Are Pakistan and Central Asia Seeking Alternative Military Partners?
Pakistan’s hosting of a high-level regional defence chiefs conference brought together senior military officials from the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
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US Strikes on Iran’s Nuclear Facilities: Risk Assessment
This report analyses the implications of recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, undertaken in full coordination with Israel.
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Trump’s Threat to Tehran and United States Dilemma in the Iran–Israel Conflict
This report assesses the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and the possible US involvement after the recent words of Donald Trump. The conflict has rapidly intensified, leading to significant casualties and drawing global attention at the G7 summit.
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Cybersecurity Breakdown in Critical Infrastructures: A Strategic Security Risk to US Operational Networks
This report provides an assessment of confirmed cyber activity targeting US critical infrastructure operational technology (OT) environments. It outlines current threat actor behaviour, key vulnerabilities, and specific defensive actions recommended by both government agencies and private sector specialists.
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Unconfirmed CIA Visit in Afghanistan Increased Pressure on the Taliban
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
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US Military Build-Up on Diego Garcia: Show of Force or Prelude to Conflict with Iran?
The United States has significantly reinforced its military presence in Diego Garcia, issuing an ultimatum to Iran for a new nuclear deal. This move raises concerns about a potential military confrontation. The aim of this report is to assess whether this escalation is a strategic bluff to push Tehran into negotiations or a genuine prelude to military action.
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United States: Political Polarisation and Its Impact on Economic Stability
This report assesses the growing political polarisation in the United States and its impact on economic stability. Utilising sources from publicly available government reports, economic indicators, and expert analyses, it examines key political trends and their implications for economic growth, investment confidence, and market stability.
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Russia’s Strategic Diplomatic Shift: Alexander Darchiev is the New Russian Ambassador to the United States
The appointment of Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s ambassador to the United States marks a pivotal moment in Moscow’s diplomatic strategy. Amidst the current high tensions, his position and experience at the Russian Foreign Ministry suggest he may strive to improve, rather than damage, U.S.-Russia relations.
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NATO, Ukraine, and the U.S. Strategy: The Geopolitical Implications of Trump’s Vision
This report examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine and NATO, particularly considering Donald Trump’s return to the White House. It analyses how the current U.S. Administration, characterised by reduced overseas commitments, fiscal conservatism, and scepticism towards allied burden-sharing, could reshape transatlantic security.
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Trump Administration and the U.S. – China Competition in Central Asia
In the last years, and especially now during Trump Administration, both the United States and the People’s Republic of China have competed in Central Asia because of the region’s strategic role in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
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Renewed Maximum Pressure: The US Returns to Confrontation with Iran
Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 30 Issue 2 Author: Silvia Boltuc Executive Summary On February 4th, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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Will USAID Shutdown Impact U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East and the Post-Soviet Space?
Trump Administration’s decision to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) significantly affects the U.S. foreign policy, with immediate consequences for the Middle East and the post-Soviet space where local countries have relied on U.S. aid for stability and development.
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Possible Implications in Eurasia of Donald Trump’s Return
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, marked by a decisive lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with over 71 million votes and 277 electoral votes, introduces a new phase in U.S. foreign policy which might affect Eurasia’s geopolitical dynamics significantly.
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Insights from the Trump-Biden U.S. Presidential Debate and Eurasia’s Geopolitics
The recent Trump-Biden U.S. presidential holds considerable significance given the current global geopolitical landscape. In Eurasia, the forthcoming president will encounter crucial challenges, such as the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, the Israeli-Palestinian crisis, the resurgence of terrorism, the growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific region over Taiwan, and the multifaceted confrontations involving China, Russia, and Iran in an increasingly multipolar global landscape.
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United States-Armenia Relations and Regional Dynamics: Report from Yerevan
This report, written during SpecialEurasia’s visit to Yerevan, examines the recent diplomatic engagements between the United States and Armenia, contextualised within the broader geopolitical dynamics of the South Caucasus.
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Is China replacing the United States in the Middle East?
In an ever-evolving geopolitical landscape, the perception of a waning United States influence in the Middle East has gained momentum. This shift has sparked debates about the extent of the US disengagement and the emerging roles of other global players, particularly China.
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Decoding the Geopolitical Meaning of the United States + Central Asia Summit of September 2023
The forthcoming “United States + Central Asia” summit, scheduled for mid-September 2023, stands as a resounding affirmation of the region’s enduring geopolitical significance
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Myanmar Conflict Implications for U.S. National Security
To counter a rising China, the U.S. should revise its definition of the Indian Ocean area of responsibility, and formulate a plan dedicated specifically to the Bay of Bengal and Myanmar.
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NATO Needs a Bank to Increase its Effectiveness
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) suffers from disproportionate financial burden-sharing., exacerbated by the fact the NATO has expanded its area of operations beyond the borders of NATO countries. A dedicated NATO bank could be the solution.
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CIA recruiting video for dissatisfied Russians: Intelligence and strategic communications during the Ukraine conflict
The CIA video in the Russian language published on YouTube, which invites dissatisfied Russians to provide information to the U.S. Intelligence agency, confirms Washington’s strategy to create a network of assets inside the Russian Federation and put pressure on the Kremlin.
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The 2023 Summit in Lithuania will unveil the future agenda of the Atlantic Alliance: Interview with H.E. Julianne Smith, U.S. Ambassador to NATO
SpecialEurasia met in Rome H.E. Julianne Smith, the US Ambassador to NATO to investigate the conflict in Ukraine, the Chinese threat, and global challenges such as terrorism, issues which the Atlantic Alliance will discuss at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
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CENTCOM eliminated a senior Islamic State Syria leader and highlighted the US commitment to the Middle East
CENTCOM’s killing of a senior Islamic State Syria leader stressed the US commitment to fighting the terrorist threats and emphasised the persistent instability in the Middle East related to jihadist and terrorist activities.
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Can Saudi Arabia switch from the US dollar to the Chinese yuan?
Oil transactions between Saudi Arabia and China could be denominated in the Chinese yuan, a significant development in the evolving international economic and geopolitical landscape. If this move happens, it could have far-reaching implications for the US dollar’s status as the dominant global currency, as well as for US-Saudi relations and broader regional dynamics in the Middle East.
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Antony Blinken visited Kazakhstan and confirmed US interests in Central Asia
Antony Blinken’s visit to Astana stressed Washington’s interests in Central Asia since the region has played a vital role in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, especially after the beginning of the Ukraine conflict.
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Kazakhstan and the United States discussed cooperation in the field of energy security
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 27 Issue 4 – The recent meeting between Kazakh and U.S. representatives in Washington stressed Astana’s desire to balance its foreign policy between the West, Russia, and China, and the White House strategy to increase its presence in the Central Asian republic.
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China’s economic cooperation with Saudi Arabia threatens U.S. regional interests
Chinese President Xi Jinping is paying an official visit to Saudi Arabia to affirm Beijing’s influence in the Gulf and contrast the U.S. presence in the region.
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Kyrgyzstan wants to strengthen commercial ties with the United States
The recent meeting between Zhaparov and the U.S.-Kyrgyzstan Business Council stressed Bishkek’s desire to strengthen economic relations with the United States and attract U.S. investors in its country. Balancing among these international players could be one of the main challenges that Kyrgyzstan should address, as well as the necessity to maintain control over the population and avoid possible socioeconomic problems.
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Tajikistan between CSTO and U.S. military support to defend its borders and domestic stability
While the CSTO military exercises were taking place in Tajikistan, Dushanbe received U.S. representatives who confirmed Washington’s interest and strategy in strengthening the security and defence of the Tajik-Afghan borders.
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How can the United States and Japan strengthen their alliance against Russia and China?
The United States and Japan have intensified their military, commercial and diplomatic cooperation to counter Russia and China’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific and strengthen Washington’s foreign policy Pivot to Asia.
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Nancy Pelosi’s visit to South Korea confirmed the U.S. partnership with Seoul
Nancy Pelosi’s visit to South Korea highlighted Seoul’s role in Washington’s Asia-Pacific strategy to contrast North Korea’s military threat in the Korean Peninsula and, at the regional level, confront the rising Chinese presence.
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Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan: will the United States reinforce the Pivot to Asia policy?
Nanci Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and the U.S. military manoeuvres in the region confirmed Washington’s interests in the Asia-Pacific and the United States’ attempt to achieve political-strategic goals in an area which has experienced the rise of Chinese military and political presence.
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U.S. drone strike killed al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan
The killing of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul by a U.S. drone strike confirmed Washington’s interests in the region and the Taliban’s policy to host terrorist organisations’ high-ranking leaders in the country, which has become a “safe heaven” for different jihadist groups.
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Rimpac 2022: the most important U.S. manoeuvre in the Pacific
Among the framework of Rimpac 2022, Washington has organised several training activities to enhance interoperability between the U.S. Navy, Amy, Marines and Airforce and the armed forces of allied countries part of the Asia-Pacific region and contrast the rising Chinese threat in the area.
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Vietnam: a disputed land between the United States and the People’s Republic of China.
The People’s Republic of China and the United States have embarked on a foreign policy aimed at influencing political and economic dynamics in Vietnam, a republic in the Asia-Pacific which plays a strategic role thanks to its geographical position.
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The US Valiant Shield 22 exercise: a warning to Beijing
US Indo-Pacific Command coordinated the Valiant Shield exercise conducted near the second island chain and in the Philippine Sea to counter the Chinese presence in the Asia-Pacific.
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Analysis of President Biden’s visits to Japan and South Korea
On May 20th-24th, 2022, U.S. President Joe Biden paid diplomatic visits to Japan and South Korea to confirm the geopolitical importance the United States attaches to the Asia-Pacific region
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The Sino-American competition in the Pacific region: the case of the Solomon Islands
The United States and its allies will watch closer the growing partnership between China and the Solomon Islands monitoring whether Beijing will manage to build a military base in a country that plays a strategic role in the Pacific.
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Joe Biden-ASEAN summit: a U.S. soft power action?
On May 12th – 13th, 2022, President Biden held a summit in Washington with the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to counter the political-economic expansionism of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Asia-Pacific region.
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U.S. maritime military presence near the Korean peninsula
The U.S. military deployment of the USS Abraham Lincoln near the Korean peninsula confirms Washington’s commitment to increasing its military presence in the Asia-Pacific region, contrasting North Korea’s threats and assuring its regional allies’ security.
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The U.S.-Philippines military exercise ‘Balikatan 2022’
The joint U.S.-Philippines military exercise ‘Balikatan 2022’ is a sign of Washington’s commitment and strategy in the Asia-Pacific to contrast further Chinese expansion in the region and strengthen military and political relations with Manila.
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The United States strengthens the Guam base
The United States has strengthened bases and military resources in Guam underlying the geopolitical and strategic role that the island has and Washington’s desire to counter the Chinese presence and strategies in Asia-Pacific.
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Japan in the U.S. Pivot to Asia Policy
Since the Obama administration took office, the United States has identified Japan as a key ally to contrast the rapid economic and military growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Asia-Pacific region.
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The Bering Strait, an area of Russian-US geostrategic interest
Within the North Pacific Area, the Bering Strait and the area surrounding are for the Russian Federation and the United States a geo-maritime space of vital importance inherent to the defence of their respective geopolitical interests.
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The Geostrategic Role of the Philippines in Supporting U.S. Interests in the Southwest Asia-Pacific Area
The strategic value attributed by the United States to the archipelago of the Philippines can be traced back to the geopolitical dispute between Washington and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), for the control of some geo-maritime areas between the eastern and southern sides of the China Sea.
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Australia’s Geostrategic Support for the U.S. Pivot to Asia Policy
Since its geostrategic position and military force and considering Washington’s Pivot to Asia policy, Australia is an essential U.S. ally for Chinese containment within the waters of the South China Sea.
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Why should the United States and Russia talk to each other?
A deep crisis on the eastern side of Europe might lead to a new confrontation between the United States (read NATO) and Russia. If the direct war between the two powers seems difficult to happen, the sense of encirclement perceived by the Russians is dangerously pushing Moscow into the arms of Beijing.
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The geostrategic importance of the Island of Guam in the U.S. policy of containment of Chinese expansionism in the Asia-Pacific.
The Island of Guam in the Asia-Pacific region plays a decisive role for the U.S. military and geopolitical strategy in countering Chinese expansion and influence in the area.
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Geopolitics of the U.S. strategy in Central Asia
After the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States is expected to redefine its position in Central Asia to contrast the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Iranian regional strategy.
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Kurdistan – United States assessed their relations and regional policy
The Manama Dialogue in Bahrain highlighted that the United States are still interested in Middle Eastern geopolitics and dynamics. In this regard, the White House might increase its cooperation and connection with Kurdistan to coordinate the fight against the Islamic State and contrast the Iranian and Russian presence and influence in the region.
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AUCC supports U.S. economic cooperation with Uzbekistan
Thanks to the support of the American-Uzbek Chamber of Commerce, the United States aims at strengthening its economic presence in Uzbekistan, considering the strategic role that Tashkent plays in Central Asian dynamics and transport corridors and Afghan domestic politics.
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US strategy in Kazakhstan: more investments and economic partnership
According to the new US strategy in Central Asia, the White House is expanding trade partnerships and investments in Kazakhstan, which aspires to improve independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity in the so-called Stan Countries and strengthen Washington’s presence in one of the most strategic regions in the world.
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The escalation between Washington and Beijing after the China consulate’s closure in Houston
The U.S. order to close the Chinese consulate in Houston accused of conducting spying activities to steal secret information on new technologies marks a new escalation between Washington and Beijing whose consequences on the international arena might be dangerous and create a fracture during the COVID-19 crisis between those countries allied with the United States and those with China.
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Washington signed a deal with the Taliban, but this is not the end of the war
The U.S.-Taliban deal allows Washington to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan but does not represent the war’s end. Undeniably, the Taliban and other terrorist organisations still threaten the Afghan people and national security.
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Qasim al-Raymi, the leader of AQAP, killed by US raid
The White House confirmed the killing of Qasim al-Raymi, the leader of al-Qaida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and Ayman al-Zawahiri’s right-hand man. Donald Trump commented on this event, stating that eliminating al-Raymi is a message for AQAP and the international terrorism network. It is a step forward to defeating terrorism in the MENA region.
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