Kazakhstan’s Geopolitics and International Relations: Interview with H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev

Kazakhstan, Italy, EU. Interview with H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev

Kazakhstan, the largest country in Central Asia, positions itself as a nation of significant strategic and geopolitical importance because of its location at the crossroads of Europe and Asia and its abundant natural resources, including key mineral and energy assets.

The country, boasting a young population and a modernising, diversifying economy, seeks to become a leading regional centre for transit, investment, and international collaboration, while fostering sustainable, multi-faceted growth.

In the current geopolitical context, Kazakhstan is actively working to balance its relations with global powers such as Russia, China, and the European Union, as well as regional actors including Turkey, Iran, and the Gulf states, viewing them as complementary partners and instruments for growth and regional stability.

SpecialEurasia met with the Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy, H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, to acquire deeper insight into this Central Asian republic following the recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Astana and the first EU–Central Asia summit held in early April 2025.

Following the meeting between President Sergio Mattarella and the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, in Astana on 9th March, and the recent bilateral agreements, what are the main short- and medium-term initiatives expected between Italy and Kazakhstan?

Indeed, President Mattarella’s visit to Astana was a significant event that reaffirmed the strategic nature of relations between Italy and Kazakhstan. In the short term, efforts will focus on the practical implementation of the agreements reached, particularly in the sectors of energy, infrastructure, and the agro-industrial complex. Negotiations are already underway for the establishment of new joint ventures and the expansion of Italian companies’ presence in Kazakhstan, especially in green economy initiatives and raw materials processing.

In the cultural and educational domain, the opening of the Italian Cultural Centre was a key development. Work is ongoing to expand language programmes, promote cultural exchanges, and strengthen cooperation between universities in both countries.

In the medium term, the agenda includes the launch of new investment platforms, deeper cooperation in critical materials and technologies, and the involvement of Italian firms in Kazakhstan’s industrialisation and transport and logistics projects.

Furthermore, we are actively collaborating on hydrogen energy, sustainable development, digitalisation, and, of course, regional security and stability. All these areas offer substantial opportunities for mutually beneficial partnership”.

What strategic role does Italy play in Kazakhstan’s foreign investment policy, particularly considering recent agreements on agricultural projects?

Italy is among Kazakhstan’s top three commercial and economic partners globally, ranking just behind Russia and China in terms of trade turnover. In 2024, bilateral trade turnover reached approximately USD 20 billion, marking a 24% increase from the previous year.

Moreover, Italy is one of the most significant investors in the Kazakh economy. From 2005 to 2024, it accounted for USD 7.6 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI). Presently, around 270 Italian-owned or joint venture entities operate in Kazakhstan, spanning various sectors of the national economy.

In recent years, Kazakhstan–Italy relations have experienced notable momentum, exemplified by President Tokayev’s official visit in January last year, alongside other visits by government officials, national company executives, and business representatives.

This phase offers Italian enterprises new opportunities to engage with the Kazakh economy and contribute to the development of bilateral trade relations.

While oil and gas, mining, and energy remain traditional areas of cooperation, I am confident that, building on our high level of trust and collaboration, we can expand our interaction into additional sectors. These include agriculture, mechanical engineering, metallurgy, light industry, infrastructure development, logistics, tourism, and many others.”

Could you elaborate on the sectors Kazakhstan prioritises for foreign direct investment (FDI) and how Italian companies might contribute to these national development goals?

Kazakhstan is pursuing a proactive policy of economic diversification, transitioning towards an innovative and green economy. In this regard, the Government has identified five key sectors for attracting FDI:

  1. Manufacturing industry — including mechanical engineering, chemicals, and metallurgy.
  2. Agriculture and food processing.
  3. Renewable energy and decarbonisation.
  4. Logistics and infrastructure — with a focus on transit routes and multimodal hubs.
  5. Information technology, digital transformation, and innovation.

Cooperation in the field of rare earth elements also represents a strategically important area. Kazakhstan produces 19 of the 34 critical raw materials essential to the European Union’s economy, including uranium, titanium, copper, lithium, cobalt, tungsten, and others. In partnership with the EBRD, Kazakhstan is implementing geological exploration projects and adopting advanced and sustainable practices in the mining industry.

Kazakhstan offers attractive conditions for foreign investors,  tax incentives, simplified land allocation procedures, and access to the EU, China, and Central Asian markets. Through Kazakh Invest, our official investment promotion agency, the Government provides comprehensive support under a “one-stop shop” model, offering legal assistance, state support measures, and investor protection.

Kazakhstan aims to attract at least USD 150 billion in FDI by 2029, with a particular focus on sustainable and technology-driven investment from the EU. In this context, Italian businesses are seen as highly promising partners.

We are especially interested in Italy’s advanced expertise and state-of-the-art technologies to establish an innovative and export-oriented industrial base.

For instance, Italian companies annually export high-value-added food products worth USD 60 billion. Technologies for producing pasta, dairy products, meat, confectionery, deep processing of fruit and vegetables, and textile manufacturing are major strengths of Italy’s export-oriented industry.

Moreover, Italy plays a prominent role in agricultural mechanisation, which is of strategic interest in the context of modernising Kazakhstan’s industrial sector.

Building on existing cooperation, we are also working with Italian partners to enhance services in the oil and gas sector, as well as local production of equipment and components with the highest possible level of localisation.

Additionally, Italian technologies in pharmaceuticals and biomedicine warrant significant attention.

Given the importance of developing transit freight and expanding logistics capacity for the export of national products, Italian involvement in the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor is considered highly promising”.

H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy
H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy

How does Kazakhstan interpret the outcome of the first EU–Central Asia Summit to establish a long-term regional equilibrium?

The primary outcome for us is that Central Asia is now increasingly viewed as a unified entity. It is a region with immense potential — in terms of sustainable development and as a platform for expanding mutually beneficial international relations. Its unique geostrategic position, considerable economic potential, and youthful population provide an ideal foundation for building new partnership frameworks.

Central Asia is not only a reliable bridge between China, Southeast Asia, and Europe, but also a dependable supplier of essential materials — ranging from uranium, oil and gas to critical raw materials, food products, and grain.

Within the context of interregional cooperation, I would particularly highlight the inaugural “Central Asia – European Union” summit held in Samarkand on 3–4 April this year. The summit resulted in a historic decision to elevate cooperation to a strategic partnership, marking a new chapter in relations between the two regions.

Whereas the region was previously seen as a theatre of competition among global powers, today — thanks to growing political unity and mutual trust — it is emerging as a zone of new opportunities. Viewing Central Asia solely through the lens of geopolitical rivalry overlooks its increasing autonomy. Countries in the region are no longer passive objects of external influence; instead, they are actively strengthening their multi-vector foreign policies and balancing the interests of major global actors such as the EU, China, Russia, and the United States.

Reinforcing regional agency in defending sovereign interests and capitalising on external opportunities has become the prevailing trend. Accordingly, the “Central Asia – European Union” summit in Samarkand marked the beginning of a new phase of accelerated economic and infrastructure development.

Kazakhstan attaches great importance to comprehensive cooperation with the EU — a key partner in both economic and foreign investment spheres.

A crucial signal from the summit is that Central Asian leaders welcomed all proposals for cooperation from their European counterparts, seeing them as pathways to further progress.”

How does Astana perceive the EU’s increasing presence in Central Asia within the framework of Kazakhstan’s multi-vector foreign policy, particularly in relation to traditional partnerships with Russia and China?

As the largest country in Central Asia, situated at the crossroads of major global actors such as Russia, China, the United States, and the European Union, Kazakhstan has pursued a deliberate multi-vector foreign policy. Although we do not possess the military might of great powers, Kazakhstan has succeeded in building a diplomacy of trust, rooted in neutrality, consistency, and openness to dialogue.

Since gaining independence in 1991, Kazakhstan has consistently sought to maintain strategic relations with Russia, expand economic and trade cooperation with China, strengthen ties with the Western world — including the EU and the United States — and deepen traditional partnerships with Turkey, the Islamic world, and other states.

We believe Kazakhstan’s role as a “middle power” lies in building bridges between cultures, economies, and political systems. As a Eurasian state straddling two continents and lying along strategic transit routes, Kazakhstan naturally serves as a link between East and West and as an energy and transport hub between Europe and Asia.

Within this strategy, the European Union is considered a key external actor, not as an alternative, but as a complement to our relations with neighbouring powers.

In this regard, it is worth noting that the EU is Kazakhstan’s largest trading and investment partner, accounting for more than one-third of our foreign trade. In 2023, trade between Kazakhstan and the EU increased by 17%, reaching nearly USD 50 billion. From 2005 to 2024, total FDI from EU member states exceeded USD 200 billion — representing 48% of Kazakhstan’s total FDI inflows.

The EU is also a source of technologies, environmental standards, and sustainable development initiatives. Several projects are currently under development in the areas of green transition, digitalisation, and transport — including via the EU’s Global Gateway strategy. Kazakhstan welcomes such initiatives, as they contribute to diversifying our external economic relations and mitigating the risks of overdependence on any single power centre.

Kazakhstan remains a key partner of the EU in Central Asia, and the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement, in force since 2020, provides a solid foundation for deepening our comprehensive collaboration.

Thus, within its multi-vector foreign policy, Astana regards the EU’s growing presence in Central Asia in an entirely positive light — as a means of balancing the influence of our traditional partners, Russia and China, and enhancing Kazakhstan’s strategic autonomy. The EU does not threaten Kazakhstan’s interests; on the contrary, it supports diversification and modernisation.”

To what extent is Kazakhstan prepared to serve as a regional centre for European investment in Central Asia, and what infrastructure or policy frameworks are being developed to support this role?

Kazakhstan occupies a strategically vital position between Europe and Asia and aspires to become a regional hub for transit and investment. The country aims to reinforce its role as a central node of Eurasian transit and gradually establish itself as the principal link between Asia and Europe.

Infrastructure development is progressing accordingly, notably the Aktau port, the “China–Kazakhstan–Europe” railway corridor, and the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor.

Over the past decade, the Government has invested approximately EUR 24 billion in transport infrastructure development.

To further bolster the country’s export and transit potential, plans are in place to construct over 4,700 km of roads and more than 1,300 km of new railways by 2030.

A primary Government objective is to support foreign investors. Under current legislation, investors are offered a range of state support measures — including tax incentives, customs duty exemptions, and in-kind grants.

Special economic zones and industrial parks focused on priority economic sectors are operational.

Legal safeguards have been introduced to protect investments, including the Astana International Financial Centre, which offers arbitration based on English common law principles.

A mechanism to facilitate investor support has also been activated — the so-called “one-stop shop” system managed by Kazakh Invest.

Kazakhstan’s unique geographic location and political stability naturally position it as a regional hub for European investment in Central Asia. The country already attracts over 70% of all foreign investment into the region and is actively investing in infrastructure and institutional development.”


Italian version available at this link: Geopolitica e relazioni internazionali del Kazakhstan: Intervista a S.E. Yerbolat Sembayev

Written by

  • Giuliano Bifolchi

    SpecialEurasia Co-Founder & Research Manager. He has vast experience in Intelligence analysis, geopolitics, security, conflict management, and ethnic minorities. He holds a PhD in Islamic history from the University of Rome Tor Vergata, a master’s degree in Peacebuilding Management and International Relations from Pontifical University San Bonaventura, and a master’s degree in History from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. As an Intelligence analyst and political risk advisor, he has organised working visits and official missions in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and the post-Soviet space and has supported the decision-making process of private and public institutions writing reports and risk assessments. Previously, he founded and directed ASRIE Analytica. He has written several academic papers on geopolitics, conflicts, and jihadist propaganda. He is the author of the books Geopolitical del Caucaso russo. Gli interessi del Cremlino e degli attori stranieri nelle dinamiche locali nordcaucasiche (Sandro Teti Editore 2020) and Storia del Caucaso del Nord tra presenza russa, Islam e terrorismo (Anteo Edizioni 2022). He was also the co-author of the book Conflitto in Ucraina: rischio geopolitico, propaganda jihadista e minaccia per l’Europa (Enigma Edizioni). He speaks Italian, English, Russian, Spanish and Arabic.

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