Executive Summary

This report investigates the geopolitical and regional outcomes and implications of the joint Armenia–US military exercises, Eagle Partner 2025, focusing on Yerevan’s domestic and external constraints and Russian leverages.

These exercises show Washington’s commitment to Yerevan’s security and broader influence in the South Caucasus. Armenia is currently expanding its security partnerships to reduce its reliance on Russia, though Moscow maintains significant influence through its military presence, economy, and strategic communications.

The geopolitical landscape poses constraints and dangers, such as regional pressure from Russia and Iran, domestic political weaknesses, and persistent economic reliance.

Key Takeaways

1. Eagle Partner 2025 highlights Armenia’s efforts to strengthen Western security cooperation and reduce reliance on Russia.
2. Russia and Iran possess strategic, economic, and societal levers that could constrain Yerevan’s United States-oriented defence policies.
3. US-Armenia military cooperation can face public dissatisfaction with the peace deal with Azerbaijan, among other domestic and regional factors, particularly in connection with the country’s 2026 elections.

Background Information

The US-Armenia military exercise “Eagle Partner 2025” began on August 12, 2025, and will end on August 20, 2025, with participants from Armenia’s peacekeeping brigade, the US Army Europe and Africa, and the Kansas National Guard.

These exercises aim to improve coordination for international peacekeeping missions, enhance tactical and command communication, and increase preparedness for medical evacuations.

Armenian Defence Minister Suren Papikyan highlighted these exercises show increasing defence collaboration with the United States, while the United States has expressed backing for Armenia’s sovereignty and security but has not yet provided advanced weaponry.

Geopolitical Scenario

Armenia’s participation in Eagle Partner 2025 must be understood against the backdrop of a strategic realignment in the South Caucasus. In recent years, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s government has tried to maintain equilibrium in relations between Russia and the West.

In 2023, Pashinyan argued that relying solely on Russia for security was a strategic misstep, referencing the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict’s repercussions. After Azerbaijan gained full control of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, Armenia has been working more closely with the European Union and the United States, showing a move to expand its security alliances.

The United States has a strategic interest in asserting its presence in the South Caucasus, especially after the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement brokered by Washington under President Donald Trump.

Eagle Partner 2025 serves multiple purposes for Washington as:

1. Showing the US political, military, and economic commitment to Armenia.
2. Consolidating the US position in a region historically dominated by Russian influence.
3. Signalling to regional actors that the United States will engage beyond diplomatic measures.

These exercises also provide Armenia with operational exposure to Western military standards and practices, improving interoperability with NATO forces.

Despite these Western engagements, Armenia faces significant constraints. Russia maintains a permanent military presence through the 102^nd base in Gyumri, which is guaranteed until 2044. An increased US or NATO military presence might escalate tensions in Yerevan and foster intelligence operations, strategic rivalry, or diplomatic disputes in the region.

Economic dependencies further limit Yerevan’s strategic options. Armenia remains a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and relies heavily on trade with Russia, particularly for energy, critical imports, and infrastructure projects. Russia can still use its economic influence to push back against Armenian foreign policy that opposes Moscow’s local and regional strategies.

Another layer of constraint comes from Armenia’s continued, albeit frozen, participation in the CSTO. Although Armenia’s ability to collaborate with France and the United States on defence matters has not been affected by its not being a formal member, access to advanced Western technologies could be restricted by US export control regulations. As long as Armenia maintains CSTO membership, Washington may be cautious in providing certain classes of sensitive military equipment. Formal membership obligations, economic dependencies, and military presence agreements together restrict the country’s security diversification.

Russia also possesses soft power and societal influence that could be leveraged to constrain Armenia. The Armenia–Azerbaijan peace agreement has caused considerable disappointment within Armenian communities worldwide, especially concerning the uncertain fate of prisoners of war and the Armenians displaced from Nagorno-Karabakh. By leveraging this unhappiness, Moscow might exert political pressure on Yerevan, harnessing public sentiment and diaspora connections to question governmental strategies or shape future electoral processes, notably the 2026 parliamentary elections.

Regional actors such as Iran also pose constraints. Iran has warned of a strong response to any increased US presence after the US established corridors along the Armenian border. Tehran, displeased by Yerevan’s move towards the West, could join forces with Moscow to put political and strategic pressure on Armenia. The interplay of Iranian and Russian interests complicates Armenia’s ability to fully integrate Western defence measures without triggering regional tensions.

Armenia’s security planning should also account for the delicate nature of its peace agreement with Azerbaijan. Azerbaijani statements in past years showed ongoing desires for so-called “Western Azerbaijan”, and the existing peace agreement has not entirely resolved issues regarding prisoners of war or the circumstances for displaced Armenians from Nagorno-Karabakh to return. The unresolved issues have the potential to spark conflicts that Russia, Iran, or other regional actors could leverage to sway Armenian domestic affairs or solidify their strategic advantage in the South Caucasus.

Economically, Armenia’s reliance on Russia for trade and energy resources constrains the speed and scope of Western-oriented defence reforms. Expanding arms procurement or technology transfers from the United States or European partners requires careful consideration of potential Russian economic retaliation, such as import-export restrictions or disruptions to energy supply chains. Pashinyan’s government faces the difficult task of fostering collaboration with the West without provoking Moscow to the point of destabilising the economy or causing security issues.

The geopolitical environment is also shaped by potential intelligence and military pressures. Armenia now interests Russian and Iranian intelligence because of the presence of US forces in exercises. These could include surveillance, influence operations targeting political elites or the diaspora, and strategic signalling through military exercises or diplomatic statements. Navigating this complex intelligence landscape demands a well-balanced approach to Yerevan’s foreign policy communications and defence strategy, especially as NATO standards and practices are more deeply embedded in Armenian training programs.

Indicators to Monitor

• Outcomes of Eagle Partner 2025 and related statements by Washington, Yerevan, and regional actors.
• Expansion of Armenia–US military exercises beyond peacekeeping operations.
• Official Russian strategic adjustments, including military or economic pressures.
• Iranian warnings or policy shifts in response to the US presence near Armenian borders.
• Public opinion and diaspora activism regarding Western alignment or dissatisfaction with the Armenia–Azerbaijan peace deal.
• Progress in US or European arms deliveries and transfer of technologies, including restrictions linked to CSTO membership.
• Policy developments regarding Armenia’s CSTO or EAEU engagement, including potential withdrawal or renewed participation.

Conclusion

Eagle Partner 2025 signifies Armenia’s commitment to diversifying security partnerships and Western engagement. US involvement shows a strategic interest in the South Caucasus in different fields.

Russia and Iran keep multiple levers to influence Yerevan, including economic, military, and societal tools. Unresolved issues from Armenia’s peace agreement with Azerbaijan, domestic political pressures, and its dependence on trade with Russia constrain its ability to fully embrace US and Western defence strategies.

Monitoring military exercises, political signalling, economic dependencies, and diaspora mobilisation will be essential to assess the evolving security environment and inform strategic decision-making.

Cover image: The US-Armenia military exercise “Eagle Partner 2025”  (Credits: Creative Commons 3.0 – US Embassy in Yerevan)