This report evaluates Iran’s strategic integration of Artificial Intelligence and predictive modelling as a cornerstone of national security and regional hydro-diplomacy.
Pacific Island nations are experiencing an escalating energy and supply chain crisis, exacerbated by the Middle East crisis and the protracted disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and their significant reliance on imported fuel.
This report examines the operational feasibility and strategic consequences of a possible US naval intervention to secure the Strait of Hormuz following the collapse of diplomatic efforts in Islamabad.
This report outlines a selection of OSINT tools that collectively enhance situational awareness, support escalation analysis, and strengthen the fidelity of assessments related to Iran’s domestic, regional, and cyber activities.
This report assesses the strategic implications of an Iranian-proposed ten-point framework within the context of United States crisis management, characterised by a calibrated balance between escalation and negotiation.
This report analyses the evolution of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy (IRGCN)’s naval doctrine between 2020 and 2026, with particular focus on the operational impact of the March 2026 losses.
This report evaluates the strategic consequences of Iran’s physical geography and the current military escalation involving Israel and the United States.
This report evaluates the structural vulnerabilities within the Persian Gulf security architecture, characterising the regional status quo as a persistent security dependency rather than a collection of fully autonomous sovereign actors.
This report serves as a high-level strategic analysis of the global financial landscape and investment market amidst the escalating conflict in the Middle East and the resulting systemic shocks to energy logistics.
This report assesses how the institutionalisation of Uighur fighters within the new Syrian political framework affects Chinese strategic interests in both the Levant and Central Asia.
This report aims at highlighting how the Shia axis is no longer a monolithic military hierarchy but a decentralised, automated “neural network” of resistance which might support the Iranian military strategy and goals.
Iran’s increasing emphasis on precision-guided and hypersonic missile technology presents a challenge to US and Israeli air defence capabilities, with the potential for severe disruption to vital military and energy assets in the region.
Iran is conducting retaliatory strikes against Gulf energy infrastructure following reported Israeli attacks on its South Pars gas facilities and the killing of senior Iranian officials.
In 2026, the Eurasian maritime environment is experiencing significant instability because of the breakdown of emerging local tensions and disputes and the US-Israel conflict with Iran, affecting the Persian Gulf.
This report evaluates the strategic deepening of Turkmenistan-Turkey relations as of March 2026, following key diplomatic summits in Istanbul and Ankara.
This report evaluates the current situation and geopolitical risks in the Middle East after ten days of the US-Israel war against Iran.
This report investigates the ramifications and repercussions of the US-Israeli war with Iran for the Central Asian republics.
Azerbaijan reported that drones launched from Iran struck its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic on 5 March 2026, damaging civilian infrastructure and injuring residents, prompting official protests and demands for explanation.
This report evaluates the feasibility of a Kurdish ground incursion from the Kurdistan Region of Iraq into north-western Iran in the context of escalating US-Israeli military pressure on Iranian security infrastructure.
This report assesses the geoeconomic consequences of the war between the United States, Israel, and Iran as of March 2026.
This report assesses Italy’s diplomatic engagement with Iran following claims that US military operations linked to strikes against Iran involve facilities on Italian territory.
This report assesses the strategic implications of recent maritime attacks near Oman and evaluates whether Muscat’s long-standing neutrality can withstand intensifying regional escalation.
This report identifies the military intelligence advantages China secures from providing Tehran with military equipment amidst the war between US-Israeli forces and Iran.
The report identifies four open-source intelligence (OSINT) tools useful to examining US-Israel war against Iran and the situation in the Middle East.
Iranian forces closed the Strait of Hormuz, and major aviation hubs in the UAE went offline following US-Israeli military attacks against Tehran.
This report assesses the geopolitical ramifications of the 28 February 2026 joint US-Israeli military strikes on the Islamic Republic of Iran, specifically regarding the degradation of Iranian strategic depth.
The targeted assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on 28 February 2026, during the joint US-Israeli attack in Tehran, has ended the longest-serving leadership era in the history of the Islamic Republic.
On 28 February 2026, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF), in coordination with the United States military, started a large-scale preemptive strike against the Islamic Republic of Iran.
On the morning of 28 February 2026, the Israel Defence Forces started a series of preemptive strikes against targets in Tehran, prompting a nationwide state of emergency.
This report evaluates the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA)’s contemporary strategies for cultivating human intelligence assets within Iran.
US President Donald Trump has issued a 10-to-15-day ultimatum to Iran to complete a nuclear agreement or face “limited” military strikes.
This report assesses the strategic implications of recent statements by Iran’s ambassador in Kabul, Alireza Bigdeli, regarding Tehran’s potential formal recognition of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban’ rule.
This report reviews the acceleration of Kazakhstan–Israel cooperation across defence, technology, and diplomacy, assessed through recent political and economic milestones.
This report assesses the strategic implications for the Islamic Republic of Iran of a potential return of Nouri al-Maliki to the Iraqi premiership, situating this scenario within Iraqi Shia power structures and Iran’s regional security posture.
This report assess the security and terrorism risks in Iraq in the last year related to the Islamic State’s activities, the situation in Syria, and increasing activity of Iran-aligned militia groups.
Turkey has attempting to mediate between Iran and the United States to avoid a military conflict whose consequences will affect directly Ankara.
Executive Summary This report assesses the strategic viability, risks, and second-order implications of a potential US military intervention against Iran.
The purpose of this report is to underscore how the change of power in this very specific section of Syria may connect Islamic State militias from the Middle East to the Khorasan by using the al-Hawl refugees camp as a logistic hub.
The Islamic State, via al-Naba 531, continues its propaganda campaign focused on recent developments in Syria to undermine the al-Sharaa government’s authority, especially during its handover of high-security detention centres.
This report assesses security-driven risks affecting the Kurdistan Region (particularly from neighbouring Syria) and their economic and strategic implications.
This report evaluates the current US military repositioning toward the Middle East against Iran amid rising tensions, including Trump’s open advocacy for regime change in Tehran.
This assessment analyses how renewed United States tariffs on countries trading with Tehran, combined with internal instability in Iran, affect Armenia’s economic resilience and strategic posture.
The Islamic State has launched a strategic ideological offensive via the editorial of al-Naba Issue 530, specifically designed to exploit domestic fractures following President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s issuance of Decree No. 13.
This report assesses the drivers, dynamics, and strategic implications of the current wave of arrests and nationwide unrest in Iran amid acute economic collapse and heightened external pressure.
This report highlights Turkey’s Great Game in Afghanistan and the linked opportunities and challenges for Ankara’s engagement with the Taliban.
This report examines Russia’s readiness to assist Iran in suppressing the protests by analysing the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran.
This report explains whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz considering a potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.
This report examines the impact of increasing political volatility within the United States on Middle East security dynamics, highlighting a decline in US predictability as a key risk factor.
The Iranian state is formalising a transition to a “war conditions” framework under Article 79, signalling a shift toward emergency command-and-control measures to address the systemic exhaustion of fiscal buffers and the “terminal volatility” of the rial.
The internal security situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has reached a critical threshold as localised economic grievances coalesce into broader political defiance.
This report evaluates the Middle East’s geopolitical risk for 2026, a year defined by the precarious “armed peace” following the 2025 Israel-Iran kinetic escalation and the first anniversary of the Syrian transition.
Islamic State has recently published Issue 525 of al-Naba, whose editorial condemns the recent developments in Syria and the current government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and exhorts local Muslims to fight against a leadership described as ‘an instrument of foreign powers.’
This report examines Iran’s long-term strategy to become a key link between Asian and European markets via the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya rail corridor.
This report examines the current state of Iran’s water crisis and its implications for the country’s political trajectory.
The Eurasian Development Bank’s first macroeconomic study on the Persian Gulf states highlights a sharp expansion in trade and investment ties between the Gulf Arab monarchies and Central Asian republics over the 2020–2024 period.
Kazakhstan announced its intention to join the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit in Washington D.C. to attend the “Central Asia + United States” Summit.
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
The report analyses the immediate economic and geopolitical effects of current events in Iran, encompassing the private sector’s formal appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian for urgent currency and regulatory reform amid a “neither war nor peace” climate, alongside a significant strengthening of Central Bank actions against rial-based stablecoin channels.
The formation of the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria (Ouli al-Ba’s) marks the emergence of a new actor within the Syrian conflict, positioning itself as a nationalist and religiously inspired “resistance” front opposing Israeli, Turkish, and Western presence in southern Syria.
The XII Summit of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS), convened in Qabala (scheduled to open 7 October), signals a deliberate push by Ankara and Baku to translate cultural-ethnic affinity into tangible geopolitical influence.
This report evaluates the likelihood and drivers of a renewed Israeli strike against Iran. It examines Tel Aviv’s strategic objectives, Tehran’s vulnerabilities and deterrence efforts, the evolving political environment, and the interplay between military procurement and information warfare.
This report assesses Iran’s developing strategic posture amid renewed geopolitical encirclement, with a focus on the implications of a potential US return to Bagram airbase, regional infrastructure realignments, and shifting alliances in South and Central Asia.
The current phase of negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program is marked by heightened European pressure, Iranian mistrust, and competing political objectives within Tehran.
This report provided a preliminary overview of an Israeli operation in Doha, which involved multiple explosions and aimed to assassinate senior Hamas leaders.
This report assesses the recent Iranian counterterrorism operations in Sistan and Baluchestan Province targeting Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant organisation with a record of insurgency and cross-border activity.
This report examines the nature and objectives of the Israel David’s Corridor and its implications for Middle Eastern security and regional geopolitical dynamics.
This report analyses the official visit of Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian to Armenia, which resulted in the signing of ten memorandums covering political, economic, cultural, and scientific cooperation.
This report analyses Tehran’s recent upgrades in its military and air defence network, especially after unveiling the Rastakhiz missile, signalling readiness to deter or respond to future hostilities.
This report assesses the recent meeting between the Armenian President and the Iranian Vice-President who focused their attetion on the INSTC and bilateral economic cooperation.
This report examines how gas transit through Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Syria currently aids Damascus’ energy needs and economic growth, Baku’s export diversification efforts, and Ankara’s Middle East ambitions.
The Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) launched a multilateral defence industry cooperation platform that represents Ankara’s strategic initiative to expand its economic and geopolitical influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Renewed fighting between Druze and Bedouin groups in Suwayda province has caused a major humanitarian and economic crisis in Southern Syria.
The Islamic Republic of Iran started increased its diplomatic and economic pivot towards the East, engaging intensively with Russia, China, and India during the recent SCO Summit and in the aftermath of the conflict with Israel in June 2025.
On 8 July 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi met with Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in what appears to be the first senior bilateral engagement since the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran on 24 June.
The 17th Eurasian Cooperation Organisation (ECO) Summit held on 3–4 July 2025 in Stepanakert (Khankendi) stressed Azerbaijan’s domestic and regional strategy and Iran’s attempt to normalise relations with Baku.
This report examines Saudi Arabia’s recent $20 million investment in Tajikistan’s education infrastructure, which is part of a larger development program totalling $325 million.
This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.
This report analyses the strategic implications of the Israel–Iran conflict on China’s regional interests, focusing on the disruption of Beijing’s energy, logistical, and geopolitical investments.
This report assesses the key ideological and operational narratives presented in the 500th issue of Al-Naba, the Islamic State’s official publication, considering the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict.
This report analyses the implications of recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, undertaken in full coordination with Israel.
This report assesses the recent Israel-Iran conflict looking at the countries’ strategic priorities, risks, and developing operational factors, and considers the possibility of broader US involvement.
This report analyses the strategic and security implications of Israel-Iran ongoing conflict for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), highlighting a significant escalation in regional hostilities.
This report assesses the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and the possible US involvement after the recent words of Donald Trump. The conflict has rapidly intensified, leading to significant casualties and drawing global attention at the G7 summit.
This report analyses the developing geopolitical dynamics involving the South Caucasus, especially Armenia and Azerbaijan, set against the backdrop of the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict. It explores the threats posed to both Armenia and Iran by Israel’s military cooperation with Baku and examines the broader implications for regional stability.
Within the larger context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, this report studies Russia’s current geopolitical manoeuvring in the Arab and Muslim world. Russia could use the conflict to strengthen ties with Arab and Muslim nations.
This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.
This report assesses the June 13, 2025, Israeli-Iranian military conflict, analysing key operational events such as Tehran’s military retaliations and Tel Aviv’s strategic achievements, identified defence weaknesses, and increased geopolitical risks.
This intelligence brief provides a structured assessment of the recent Israeli military strikes against Iran, based strictly on open-source reporting from local and international media outlets. The report aims to inform about the key developments, strategic implications, and potential courses of action stemming from this event.
This report offers an analytical overview of the official visit by the Italian delegation to Iran for the fifth round of bilateral political consultations, highlighting a desire to advance the bilateral partnership amid a complex geopolitical landscape.
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa. In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities.
This report analyses the strategic implications of a significant potential breach within Israel’s intelligence domain, stemming from Iran’s claimed acquisition of highly sensitive Israeli military and nuclear-related documents.
This report evaluates the strategic implications of the new China-Iran railway corridor. It highlights Iran’s geopolitical importance as a multimodal Eurasian hub and analyses the competing interests of major powers vying for influence over Iranian ports.
This report analyses the Iranian corporation Shasta’s involvement and interests in the Makhachkala Sea Trade Port in the Republic of Dagestan. The report also outlines potential benefits and challenges tied to these efforts.
This report analyses the approval of Iran’s National Artificial Intelligence Plan by the Islamic Consultative Assembly on 18 May 2025, outlining the legislative, institutional, and geopolitical dimensions of the initiative. The report details internal debate over authority, finances, and bureaucracy because of delayed government action.
This report examines the resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the latest issue of al-Naba, a response to his attempts to engage with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. . The report details internal security threats, geopolitical shifts, and the dangers of jihadist insurgency.
The report examines the deepening of economic and strategic relations between Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, highlighted by the signing of nine bilateral agreements worth $5 billion. These include major investments in port infrastructure at Kuryk and Aktau, expansion of agri-food trade, and significant financial integration through the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC).
The recent regional developments, particularly surrounding President Donald Trump’s diplomatic tour of the Gulf, have deepened existing geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East. This report assesses the impact of these dynamics on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s official visit to Azerbaijan is a significant step towards restoring bilateral relations between Tehran and Baku after years of tensions. Several cooperation agreements signal a cautious but realignment of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in a highly competitive geopolitical landscape.