This report examines the recent meeting in Kabul between Mullah Baradar and representatives of Russian companies focused on investments in the mining sector.
L’escalation militare tra Afghanistan e Pakistan, sebbene parzialmente contenuta grazie all’intervento di attori esterni, quali Qatar e Arabia Saudita, rappresenta un problema persistente e crescente, con potenziali ripercussioni sulla stabilità regionale.
This report assesses the recent escalation of hostilities between Afghanistan and Pakistan, marked by deadly border clashes and alleged Pakistani air strikes near Kabul. It examines the causes, implications, and regional consequences of these confrontations.
This report assesses China’s invitation to Taliban Defence Minister Mullah Yaqoub Mujahid against the backdrop of US interest in regaining access to Bagram Air Base.
This report assesses Iran’s developing strategic posture amid renewed geopolitical encirclement, with a focus on the implications of a potential US return to Bagram airbase, regional infrastructure realignments, and shifting alliances in South and Central Asia.
This report examines the connection between Donald Trump’s repeated calls for the US to control Bagram Air Base and the changing political and economic landscape of Afghanistan.
On September 13, 2025, the TTP launched attacks against Pakistani security forces in South Waziristan and Lower Dir, which led to the deaths of 19 soldiers and no less than 35 militants.
This report examines the geopolitical consequences of the armed clash on August 24, 2025, which involved Tajikistan border forces and Taliban fighters near the Panj River.
This report analyses the implications and reasons of Russia’s statement regarding the presence of 23,000 international terrorists and militants in Afghanistan.
This report assesses the strategic and economic implications of the first meeting of Central Asian special representatives on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan on 26 August 2025.
This report analyses China’s recent diplomatic and economic activities in Afghanistan and Pakistan, with a focus on agreements that aim to boost trade, security collaboration, and infrastructure development.
This report investigates Kyrgyzstan’s recent engagement with Afghanistan through targeted economic cooperation and joint projects in the energy and transport fields.
Executive Summary This report examines the Taliban-led Afghan government’s decision to launch a $10 billion energy infrastructure project with Azizi Energy. The initiative seeks to build 10,000 megawatts of electricity capacity in the next ten years to lessen reliance on imported energy and meet domestic needs. It also has political aims, such as increasing control […]
The Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (UAP) Railway Project Agreement significantly advances regional infrastructure integration.
The Taliban’s control in Afghanistan’s Badakhshan province is reportedly facing growing challenges. Civil unrest stems from the marginalisation of ethnic minorities, heavy-handed anti-drug policies, and eroding national unity.
This report analyses the geopolitical consequences of Russia officially recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in July 2025. This decision highlights Moscow’s intention to expand its influence in Central and South Asia.
This report assesses the strategic implications, current developments, and potential risks associated with the Trans-Afghan Railway, also referred to as the “Kabul Corridor”. The report concludes with forecast scenarios concerning regional stability, trade potential, and geopolitical alignment.
This report examines Iran’s evolving strategic posture in Afghanistan following the erosion of its influence in Syria. The loss of key proxy leaders, Israel’s war in Gaza, and Syria’s collapse as a reliable geographical link force Tehran to seek alternative arenas. The aim of this report is to assess whether Afghanistan could emerge as Iran’s next strategic frontier following Syria’s decline.
This report examines recent CSTO and Dushanbe’s efforts to bolster security on the Tajik-Afghan border, as the situation in northern Afghanistan worsens. Regional concerns about rising terrorism and illicit activity in Afghanistan’s border provinces pushed CSTO to start the first phase of its longstanding program.
This report examines the recent arrests of ethnic Tajik Taliban commanders in northern Afghanistan, highlighting emerging internal rifts within the movement, particularly between the Kandahar leadership and the Haqqani Network, and potential instability in historically restive regions, such as Takhar and Badakhshan.
In April 2025, Afghanistan has re-emerged as a critical node in regional and global geopolitics, shaped by intensifying engagement from Russia and China, and potential covert re-entry of US intelligence. These developments reflect a growing contest for strategic positioning in post-withdrawal Afghanistan, with significant implications for regional security dynamics.
On 10 April 2025, the Republic of San Marino will host a significant event dedicated to the discussion of human rights, focusing on the condition of women in Afghanistan under Taliban rule. The association Libera San Marino, within the framework of the “Libera la Cultura” (Free the Culture) project, organised the roundtable scheduled to begin at 20:30 at the Sala Montelupo in Domagnano
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
This report examines the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan, focusing on shared challenges and opportunities in the areas of water management, security, and migration. The ongoing dispute over the Helmand River’s water allocation represents a critical element of their relationship.
This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan, focusing specifically on the Sino-Taliban relationship. The analysis considers the role of militant groups operating across the border and forecasts potential outcomes that could affect China’s strategic objectives in Central Asia and its broader regional influence.
This report outlines recent developments regarding the Wakhan Corridor, specifically focusing on the increasing Chinese presence in the region. The visit of three Chinese military intelligence officers to the Wakhan Corridor is a significant event showing Beijing’s increasing strategic focus on the region.
The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.
This report evaluates the implications of Taliban’s third anniversary celebrations amid persistent security threats from groups like the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) and assesses the Taliban’s ability to maintain stability in Afghanistan.
Al Azaim Foundation, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) media wing, recently released a video titled “Followers of the Jews” that represents a strategic attempt to undermine the Taliban’s religious authority in Afghanistan.
This intelligence brief provides timely information on recent events in Afghanistan, including the attack on a mosque in Herat province and developments in transit and trade infrastructure, as well as potential cooperation in the mining sector between Kazakhstan and Afghanistan.
In the most recent episode of the Geopolitical Report Podcast, Max Taylor, serving as the Intelligence Manager at Intelligence Fusion, offered invaluable insights into the prevailing circumstances within Central Asia and the AfPak region.
The inauguration of the Hairatan-Mazar-e-Sharif railway line, celebrated at the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan border, represents a significant advancement in regional infrastructure. However, concerns persist regarding the Taliban’s ability to ensure stability amidst heightened security threats since their takeover in August 2021.
Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the subsequent establishment of the Islamic Emirate, the country has witnessed a surge in terrorist attacks targeting the Taliban, ethnic minorities, and foreigners and a rise in al-Qaeda’s activities.
In questa ricerca pubblicata in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2532-845X Volume 4 Year 2023, Carlo Parissi si è posto come obiettivo quello di illustrare la storia delle relazioni bilaterali tra Afghanistan e Turkmenistan, i loro rapporti economici, gli sforzi congiunti in campo energetico e alcune problematiche derivanti dalla situazione afghana.
In this paper published in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2532-845X Vol. 4 Year 2023, the author Gabriele Massano examined tensions at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the impact of the Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Pakistani security situation.
The prospect of enhanced Iran-Afghanistan cooperation holds a dual promise: not only does it offer a pathway to augment trade and boost revenues for two nations grappling with economic challenges and Western sanctions, but it also serves as a strategic move to counterbalance the escalating economic influence of China within the Afghan market.
Since the Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan and considering recent developments within Pakistan, the regional security landscape has witnessed a discernible deterioration, primarily because of the escalating terrorist menace emanating from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The strategic positioning of the Khorasan region is pivotal for the facilitation of trade and cultural interchange with adjacent nations. In this regard, implementing Special Economic Zones (SEZs) might strengthen the relations between Afghanistan and Iran.
The assassination of Qari Mohammad Dawezi in Afghanistan, a field commander affiliated with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction withing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), highlights the intensifying factional infighting within the organisation and the significant role that the Afghan territory has for jihadist militants.
The Azerbaijani State Security Service recently detained an Afghan citizen who had been planning a terrorist attack within the country. This alarming development highlights the ongoing global threat of terrorism and the importance of maintaining public stability and security.
By improving security and defence cooperations, Pakistan is trying to increase its influence on Tajikistan and the regional security system of Central Asia as a whole and prevent the rise of jihadist groups.
The Taliban continue their effort to contrast and eliminate the Islamic State’s threat, confirming the Islamic Emirate necessity to stabilise the country to attract foreign investors and international consensus.
Turkmenistan accomplished the mission to export its natural gas to Pakistan through Afghanistan, an economic goal that Ashgabat aimed to reach to diversify its exports and trade partners and increase the revenue.
The Islamic State terrorist attack against the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Afghanistan in Kabul stressed the unstable situation in the country and the Taliban’s inability to face terrorism and jihadist groups. Although the Taliban claimed that they had upgraded the national security situation since they took power in August 2021, the number of violent attacks and bomb blast have increased.
In 2023, foreign actors’ interests, terrorism, authoritarianism, and economic slowdown might threaten Central Asia and AfPak’s security and stability and increase regional geopolitical risk.
SpecialEurasia had the opportunity to interview Hamid Saifi, a former Afghanistan National Army commanding officer (5thBrigade of the 203rd Thunder Corps) and current member of the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan, to discuss the actual situation on the ground, the NRF strategy and deepen our knowledge about the local dynamics in Afghanistan.
Russia and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) signed the most significant deal since the Taliban movement came to power last year, confirming Kremlin’s interests in the country and Moscow’s will to become a key regional actor.
The killing of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul by a U.S. drone strike confirmed Washington’s interests in the region and the Taliban’s policy to host terrorist organisations’ high-ranking leaders in the country, which has become a “safe heaven” for different jihadist groups.
Central Asian republics want to establish solid regional cooperation to promote socio-economic projects to stabilise the area and contrast rising problems such as widespread disappointment and protests, terrorist threats and security issues related to the current situation in Afghanistan.
Since the U.S. troops’ withdrawal and the Taliban’s rise to power, Afghanistan has witnessed huge uncertainty, instability and destabilisation due to the terrorist threat and criminal activities, economic problems, interethnic confrontation aggravated by the Taliban interim government, and regional and international geopolitical interests.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 18 Issue 2 – The 2021 proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan reveals several straightforward and/or controversial relationships with state and non-state figures at the regional level. This intricate web of relations plays a role in outlining the Taliban regime’s assets and challenges.
On April 6th, 2022, SpecialEurasia organised the webinar “Afghanistan: geopolitical interests, humanitarian crisis and security” to address the Italian public opinion on the current situation of the Afghan people after the U.S. troops’ withdrawal and the Taliban’s seize of power.
The Turkmenistan-India meeting highlighted the role that Afghanistan plays in Ashgabat and New Delhi’s foreign policy and regional strategy and the importance that the TAPI project play for Turkmen and Indian economies.
Recently, a video published by Al-Azaim Foundation, Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP)’s mouthpiece in the region, harshly lashed out against the Taliban and their relations with the international community and particularly neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, China, and Russia.
During the last few days, Russian companies have shown interest in supporting the TAPI pipeline project and the Taliban in reparing their helicopters and training personnel highlighting the Kremlin’s strategy in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
SpecialEurasia organizza il webinar “Afghanistan: interessi geopolitici, crisi umanitaria e sicurezza” con l’obiettivo di analizzare le dinamiche attuali afghane e comprendere quali sfide il paese dovrà affrontare nel breve e medio periodo così come l’impatto che l’attuale governo ad interim dei Talebani potrà avere a livello regionale.
The recent terrorist attack in Peshawar underlined security problems in Pakistan linked to different terrorist groups that operate in the region, especially between the Afghan-Pakistani border, and stressed Islamabad and Kabul’s current inability to completely contrast the Islamic State’s threat.
Recent reports have underlined that drug trafficking, terrorist attacks, and Islamic State activities are Afghanistan’s leading dangers that can jeopardise local security and Central Asian dynamics.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are arresting or kidnapping the Balochi to please Islamabad. Last week, the Balochistan Liberation Army organised violent attacks which severely hit the Pakistani army and threatened Chinese interests in the region.
Recent separate summits between China, India and Central Asian republics stressed New Delhi – Beijing’s competition in the region and their attempt to influence local dynamics exploiting the current situation in Afghanistan, economic cooperation, investments in infrastructural projects, and security cooperation against terrorism.
The meeting between the Taliban and the Turkmen representaives in Ashgabat underlined the Taliban’s attempt to create partnerships and joint projects with Central Asian republics and Turkmenistan’s necessity to discuss with the Afghan interim Government the promotion of the TAPI natural gas pipeline.
The Foreign Affairs Minister of the Taliban interim Government Amir Khan Muttaqi said that he had met with the head of the National Resistance Front Ahmad Massoud and the leader of the Herat militia Mohammad Ismail Khan in Tehran.
The recent border clashes between the Taliban and Turkmen security forces highlight how fragile the security situation is in the region. As a matter of fact, in the last month, the Taliban also collided with the Iranian and Pakistani border guards.
The presence of Uyghur suicide bombers in the ranks of the Islamic State-Khorasan increases Beijing’s fears about the threat to China’s national security emanating from Afghanistan.
We have monitored terrorist and violent attacks in Afghanistan in 2021 and produced an interactive map to assess which regions are affected mainly by terrorist organisations and analyse how terrorism has evolved or changed since the Taliban’s rise to power.
After the US-NATO troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban takeover of power by force, once again the international community is confronted with the humanitarian and political crisis in Afghanistan. Despite the imposition of an Islamic Emirate and implementation of radical Islamist sharīʿa inside Afghanistan, several regional powers have pondered on the idea of officially […]
The meeting on Afghanistan organised in Tehran confirms the Iranian desire to have a major role in Afghan and regional dynamics and stressed how several Asian countries are strongly promoting greater regional cooperation that in the future might contrast Western local interests and presence.
The Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan and China discussed implementing security cooperation to contrast terrorism, extremism, and separatism in the region and counter organised crime and illicit traffic. Since Kyrgyzstan play a decisive role in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has economically supported the Kyrgyz economy and national development as the domestic security […]
The recent meetings between Uzbek and Taliban official representatives organised to discuss humanitarian assistance and joint economic and infrastructural projects underline Tashkent’s strategy to establish relations with the Taliban government to stabilise its borders and promote an economic partnership considered as necessary for the security and stability of the region.
The recent terrorist attack in Kunduz alarmed Tajikistan and Russia on the stability and security of the Afghan-Tajik borders and the Taliban ability to counter Islamic State and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. In this framework, Moscow and Dushanbe are seeking to enhance their cooperation in the security field, confirming the Russian strategy to play a decisive role in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are intensifying their cooperation in different fields to create a strong partnership in Central Asia. Ashgabat and Tashkent are also interested in creating a joint partnership in connection with the recent developments in Afghanistan to secure their countries and boost their economies.
La repubblica centro asiatica del Tagikistan è divenuta il centro della resistenza afghana nel Panjshir e il primo baluardo contro il Governo dei talebani in Afghanistan, fattore che ha indotto Mosca a richiedere un dialogo tra Dushanbe e Kabul per evitare una possibile escalation e un conflitto regionale.
The recent visit of Nikolai Patrushev to India underlines prospects of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi on regional security and geopolitics, particularly after the U.S. troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban rise to power.
The complete NATO troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban mark the beginning of a new geopolitical game in the region, which involves China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India and Turkey. At the same time, the United States seems to have increased their strategic interest in the Asia-Pacific to counter Chinese sea power and in the Middle East to confront Iran.
Questo report si propone di analizzare l’importanza e il ruolo del porto di Chabahar per India, Afghanistan e Pakistan, attori direttamente coinvolti da questa infrastruttura insieme alla Repubblica Islamica dell’Iran (Parte 2)
The eventuality that Iran has supported the creation of a Shiite militant organisation in Afghanistan has caused diplomatic tensions among Tehran and Kabul and highlighted how fragile the country’s situation might be after the NATO troops withdrawal.
The Russian Federation wants militarily to support Tajikistan with the aim of controlling the borders with Afghanistan and contrasting the possible Taliban offensive in the region.
Since U.S. President Joe Biden confirmed the NATO troop withdrawal from Afghanistan, several regional and international actors have demonstrated their commitment to support the Afghan transition peace process and exploit the possible geopolitical vacuum left by Washington.
Since the United States signed the Doha Peace Agreement with the Taliban group, numerous analyses and reports have been written on the future of Afghanistan. Now with the latest announcement made by the US President Joe Biden on the US and NATO complete troop withdrawal from Afghanistan starting on May 1st, 2021 and ending by […]
La Linea di Durand è l’eredità (o la pesante conseguenza negativa) del colonialismo europeo e ha caratterizzato la regione dove hanno sempre vissuto le tribù Pashtun. Nel 1893 Mortimer Durand, un diplomatico britannico del servizio civile indiano, e Abdur Rahman Khan, l’emiro afghano, stabilirono i confini tra l’Afghanistan e l’India britannica fissando una linea di […]
Il recente incontro tra i rappresentanti del Governo turkmeno e i talebani sembra aver dato nuove speranze per la realizzazione del progetto del gasdotto TAPI, infrastruttura che all’interno dello scacchiere geopolitico euroasiatico vede scontrarsi gli interessi di attori internazionali (Stati Uniti, Russia, Cina) e regionali.
Afghanistan is a strategic country in Eurasia, a land where superpowers (British Empire, Soviet Union, the United States) had known their limits trying to control the local population and include it in their geopolitical strategy. Therefore, we decide to discuss current dynamics and future developments of Afghanistan with Jill Suzanne Kornetsky, a Kabul-based consultant, researcher, analyst and social entrepreneur.
The National Directorate of Security of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan reported that Afghan security forces killed a high-ranking member of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Mohammad Hanif. Despite the Taliban has often denied their involvement with al-Qaeda, latest military operations have underlined how strong is the presence and penetration of the terrorist organisation in Afghanistan.
The Russian ambassador in Afghanistan, Dmitry Zhirnov, confirmed the Kremlin’s interests in improving its diplomatic and commercial relations with Kabul and supporting the national peace process without any forms of foreign interference. Zhirnov’s words underlined the Russian desire to play a strategic role in Afghanistan and counter the United States and Chinese presence.
On Wednesday morning in Kabul, unknown assailants attacked the motorcade of the first Vice-President of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh. The politician was not injured during the attempt. This event underlines how complex is the current situation of Afghanistan due to the Talibans’ activities and the presence of jihadist fighters linked to the Islamic State and foreign actors.
Because Afghanistan matters in geopolitics and its stability might be considered as one of the main goals of the international community, we decided to meet H.E. Helena Malikyar, the Ambassador of Afghanistan to Italy to discuss issues related to the security, stability, economic development and future challenges in Afghanistan.
The U.S.-Taliban deal allows Washington to withdraw its troops from Afghanistan but does not represent the war’s end. Undeniably, the Taliban and other terrorist organisations still threaten the Afghan people and national security.
The US – Taliban deal should be only interpreted as an agreement between Washington and a specific group of Taliban for the safe passage of the US troops’ withdrawal. The agreement was welcomed as a success in diplomacy. However, the war in the country cannot be considered over since in Afghanistan several factions of Taliban and different terrorist groups connected to external actors are operating.
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) recently published a quarterly report which highlights that over the last quarter of 2019, the number of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan increased by 17% compared to the same period in 2018. The high level of attacks conducted by the Taliban might seriously threaten the dialogue on the peace agreement started by the United States.