Armenian parliamentary election: why matters?

2020 Nagorno Karabakh Conflict Monitoring ASRIE Analytica e1627217596253
Armenia and the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict: regional alliances and actors involved (Credits: CC BY 4.0, mapchart.net)

Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 5 Issue 2
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

After the 2018 Velvet Revolution and the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Armenian is at the crossroad for its future existence because on June 20th, 2021, the Armenians will vote for the third time in five years for the Prime Minister and national government.

Even though there are 22 parties and four electoral blocs on the ballot, the main question is whether the former Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan will retain the majority in the parliament or lose its leadership in favour of his longtime opponent Robert Kocharyan.

The reason for the early elections to the Armenian parliament was the result of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh War. The trilateral statement on the cessation of hostilities that Pashinyan signed with the presidents of Azerbaijan and Russia was perceived by a significant part of the Armenian society as capitulation. Mass protests followed in the country, and the Armenian leader Nikol Pashinyan was forced to announce early elections.

On the one hand, the opposition parties have accused Pashinyan of losing the war against Azerbaijan. On the other hand, Pashinyan’s supporters believe that corruption and mismanagement of the previous Armenian governments and leadership are the main reason for the Armenian failure in the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict and its incapacity to improve its economic development and face the pandemic.

Although it is difficult to predict who will win this parliamentary election, it should be noted that the Armenians will face a difficult choice between Pashinyan, who ‘surrendered’ the Nagorno-Karabakh and was unable to defend the country’s borders, and Kocharyan, whose past government was associated with corruption and harsh reprisals against political opponents

Why does this parliamentary election matter?

Because the 2021 Armenian parliamentary election will mark the future of the country and Yerevan’s domestic and foreign policy. Russia is the leading partner of Armenia even though during Pashinyan’s leadership Moscow-Yerevan relations cooled down because the Kremlin has never seen with favour the 2018 Velvet Revolution and has interpreted with distrust Pashinyan’s domestic and foreign policy.

After the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict is clear that Russia still plays a vital role in Armenia’s existence, this means that the future Prime Minister will deal with Russia in any case whether the Armenians will vote for Pashinyan or Kocharyan, although the last one has often declared its friendship with Putin and ‘devotion’ to Moscow.

The Armenian parliamentary election interests the future of the entire Caucasus because the future Prime Minister of Armenia will guide the country in economic reforms and foreign policy influencing a region that plays a strategic role in the Eurasian chessboard where regional actors (Iran, Turkey) and international powers (United States, China, Russia) have tried to extend their influence and promote their strategies.

While it appears that Pashinyan holds a promising position for triumph in the imminent Parliamentary elections, the true intrigue lies in his ability to navigate the complex aftermath of the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict’s defeat. This challenge is further compounded by the intricacies of an economy rendered fragile by the far-reaching impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic.

Additionally, a pressing concern looms in the form of the ongoing humanitarian crisis and the displacement of Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs) stemming from the Republic of Artsakh. Pashinyan’s capacity to address these multifaceted issues will undoubtedly shape his tenure and shed light on his leadership’s resilience and vision for a sustainable future for Armenia.


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Written by

  • Giuliano Bifolchi

    SpecialEurasia Co-Founder & Research Manager. He has vast experience in Intelligence analysis, geopolitics, security, conflict management, and ethnic minorities. He holds a PhD in Islamic history from the University of Rome Tor Vergata, a master’s degree in Peacebuilding Management and International Relations from Pontifical University San Bonaventura, and a master’s degree in History from the University of Rome Tor Vergata. As an Intelligence analyst and political risk advisor, he has organised working visits and official missions in the Middle East, North Africa, Latin America, and the post-Soviet space and has supported the decision-making process of private and public institutions writing reports and risk assessments. Previously, he founded and directed ASRIE Analytica. He has written several academic papers on geopolitics, conflicts, and jihadist propaganda. He is the author of the books Geopolitical del Caucaso russo. Gli interessi del Cremlino e degli attori stranieri nelle dinamiche locali nordcaucasiche (Sandro Teti Editore 2020) and Storia del Caucaso del Nord tra presenza russa, Islam e terrorismo (Anteo Edizioni 2022). He was also the co-author of the book Conflitto in Ucraina: rischio geopolitico, propaganda jihadista e minaccia per l’Europa (Enigma Edizioni). He speaks Italian, English, Russian, Spanish and Arabic.

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