Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 43 Issue 5
SpecialEurasia OSINT Team

Executive Summary

Kyrgyzstan faced a significant terrorism risk stemming from the activities of radical groups linked to international terrorist organisations, such as the Islamic State. Recent counter-terrorism operation near Bishkek highlighted both the active recruitment efforts targeting Kyrgyz youth and the nation’s challenges in addressing these threats effectively.

This report analyses the current terrorism risk in Kyrgyzstan, considering recent incidents, underlying factors, and the efficacy of the nation’s counter-terrorism measures.

Key Findings

1. Radicalisation and Recruitment. The Islamic State and its affiliated groups are engaging in the active recruitment of individuals in Kyrgyzstan, employing social media platforms to disseminate extremist ideologies and provide training in terrorist methodologies to recruits.
2. Recent Counter-Terrorism Successes. In the last year, Kyrgyz security forces effectively disrupted several terrorist plots and apprehended individuals involved in extremist activities, showcasing a proactive stance in their efforts to combat terrorism.
3. Ongoing Vulnerabilities. Despite significant efforts, Kyrgyzstan remains vulnerable to transnational terrorist threats, particularly in remote regions with porous borders that facilitate the movement of militants and illicit materials.

Background Information

The Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan has experienced an increasing threat from terrorism and violent extremism in recent years. The country’s strategic location and socio-economic challenges make it a target for radical groups, particularly those associated with the Islamic State. In order to combat this threat, the government has taken a range of measures, primarily focusing on countering violent extremism and disrupting terrorist activities.

On June 14^th, 2024, the State Committee for National Security (SCNS) of Kyrgyzstan successfully dismantled an underground radical group promoting Islamic State ideology. This group was involved in recruiting young individuals and distributing terrorist propaganda, including training materials for creating improvised explosive devices and using weapons. Law enforcement agencies detained fifteen individuals across Bishkek and other regions, confiscating significant quantities of radical literature.

In December 2023, Kyrgyz special services prevented a planned terror attack targeting New Year celebrations in Jalal-Abad. The operation resulted in the detention of individuals affiliated with the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), who were planning to execute bombings and armed assaults as per the directives of ISKP emissaries.

Further highlighting the ongoing threat, in May 2023, Kyrgyz security forces eliminated a suspected terrorist linked to the conflict in Syria during an operation in the Chui region. This incident underscores the persistent risk posed by returning foreign terrorist fighters (FTFs) and dormant extremist cells.

Risk Assessment

The terrorism risk in Kyrgyzstan is multifaceted, driven by both internal and external factors. The following elements contribute to the overall threat level:

1. Recruitment and Radicalisation. Radical groups, particularly the Islamic State, are leveraging social media to recruit and radicalise Kyrgyz citizens. This approach is effective in spreading extremist ideologies and training new recruits remotely. The recent arrests show these groups are actively working to expand their influence within Kyrgyzstan.
2. Operational Capabilities of Terrorist Groups. The prevention of planned attacks and the apprehension of group members demonstrate the operational capabilities of these terrorist organisations. The confiscation of detailed plans and training materials suggests a high level of organisation and intent to conduct large-scale attacks.
3. Geopolitical and Regional Influences. Kyrgyzstan’s proximity to Afghanistan, where the Islamic State has a significant presence, exacerbates the risk. The porous borders in the southern region facilitate the movement of militants and illicit goods, increasing the potential for cross-border terrorist activities.
4. Government Response and Capacity. While Kyrgyzstan’s security forces have demonstrated some success in limited resources, expertise, and potential legal framework deficiencies hinder counter-terrorism operations, the government’s overall capacity to manage the threat. The restriction of public information on national security issues further complicates the assessment of the effectiveness of these measures.
5. Socio-Economic Factors. High unemployment rates, political instability, and socio-economic disparities create a fertile ground for radicalisation. Young people, in particular, are vulnerable to the influence of extremist ideologies as they seek purpose and community.

Conclusion

Kyrgyzstan faces a substantial and growing terrorism risk, primarily driven by the activities of radical groups linked to the Islamic State. Recent counter-terrorism operations underscore both the measures taken by Kyrgyz security forces and the persistent vulnerabilities that exist. The ongoing recruitment efforts, coupled with the operational capabilities of these groups and the regional geopolitical landscape, necessitate continued vigilance and enhanced cooperation among Central Asian states.

To mitigate the risk, Kyrgyzstan must focus on strengthening its counter-terrorism capabilities, improving regional cooperation, and addressing the socio-economic conditions that contribute to radicalisation. Enhancing public awareness and transparency regarding national security efforts will also be crucial in fostering resilience against the threat of terrorism.

If you require additional information, reports, or consulting regarding terrorism and security risks in Kyrgyzstan, please do not hesitate to contact us at info@specialeurasia.com