Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 12 Issue 1
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Recent arrests of Russian citizens in the Stavropol territory linked with the Islamic State confirmed that jihadist propaganda penetrated the Russian territory by exploiting local problems and influencing the Muslim communities disseminated in the country, especially in the North Caucasus, where the Kremlin has contrasted local militancy and religious extremism.

On October 7^th, 2022, the Center for Public Relations of the Russian FSB announced that local security forces arrested Russian citizens accused of preparing a terrorist attack against transport facilities in the Stavropol territory. Russian security authorities informed that the people arrested during a complex security operation belonged to an Islamic State clandestine cell.

Previously, in September, the Russian security forces detained in Moscow several members of a local cell accused of financing the Islamic State terrorist organization. According to Russian operatives, the cell was composed of Russian citizens who were involved in transferring more than 100 thousand rubles using bank cards to the Islamic State channel for financing militants.

Why does it matter?

The North Caucasus, and generally the Russian Federation, is not immune to terrorism and jihadist propaganda linked with the Islamic State (IS) or Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). As previously SpecialEurasia reported, the Russian security forces have increased their counter-terrorist activities to face terrorist cells and prevent violent attacks in Russian territory.

The Stavropol territory is part of the North Caucasus Federal District (NCFD), a Russian administrative entity well-known for local instability, religious extremism, and violent attacks. The Kremlin has hugely financed socio-economic projects and promoted regional security operations to contrast local militancy and terrorist groups. Therefore, since the beginning of 2022, the North Caucasus has totalled only two victims related to violent attacks, according to Kavkaz Uzel.

On the one hand, the positive trend in the North Caucasus related to the decrease in violent attacks and related victims underlines the Kremlin’s strategy to contrast terrorism activities and jihadist propaganda. On the other hand, recent arrests in the North Caucasus and other Russian federal entities have highlighted how deep jihadist groups might penetrate Russian society, especially in those regions where most of the local people are Muslims, such as the Stavropol territory in the NCFD.

Islamic State and Jihadist Activities in Russia: Risk Scenarios

The North Caucasus, a historically volatile region within the Russian Federation, has been a focal point of concern due to its susceptibility to terrorism and extremist ideologies. Recent developments, including arrests of Russian citizens linked to the Islamic State, have brought to light the intricate regional situatio characterised by local vulnerabilities, jihadist propaganda, and state counter-terrorism efforts.

Based on the information provided above, we might elaborate three distinct scenarios that project the potential trajectories for security and stability in the North Caucasus, taking into account the evolving dynamics of extremism and the effectiveness of governmental measures. Each scenario envisions a plausible future outcome based on the complex interweaving of factors shaping the region’s security landscape.

1. Sustained Counter-Terrorism Success. The Russian government’s concerted efforts to combat terrorism and jihadist propaganda in the North Caucasus continue to yield positive results. The series of arrests and security operations targeting local cells affiliated with the Islamic State and other extremist groups reflect the effectiveness of the Kremlin’s counter-terrorism strategy. The sustained decrease in violent attacks and related casualties throughout the North Caucasus is a testament to the success of the multifaceted approach employed by Russian security forces. By allocating significant resources to socio-economic development projects and regional security operations, the Kremlin manages to curtail the appeal of militancy and extremism within the local population. This scenario reinforces the image of a capable state that is adept at mitigating security threats and maintaining stability in a historically volatile region.

2. Persistent Instability Amid Lingering Threats. Despite the Russian government’s efforts, instability and security threats persist in the North Caucasus. The recent arrests of individuals linked to the Islamic State and their attempts to exploit local problems underscore the ongoing susceptibility of the region to extremist influences. The sporadic nature of violent attacks and the continued arrests of individuals involved in financing or planning terrorist activities highlight the challenges in eradicating extremist elements entirely. The Kremlin’s investment in socio-economic projects and security measures may have limited success in deterring extremism due to deeply ingrained grievances and local dynamics. While the region may experience periodic declines in violent incidents, the overall volatility remains a concern, posing a sustained challenge to Russian security forces and regional stability.

3. Escalation of Extremist Penetration. Jihadist propaganda’s penetration into the North Caucasus and other Russian federal entities deepens, leading to an escalation of extremist activities. Despite the Kremlin’s efforts to promote stability through socio-economic development and security operations, the recent arrests provide evidence that extremist groups have managed to establish a foothold in local communities. The arrests in the Stavropol territory and Moscow suggest a coordinated effort by these groups to exploit local grievances and vulnerabilities, thereby amplifying their reach and influence. The rise in financing activities for extremist organizations indicates an expansion of their networks within the country. The North Caucasus, as a region with a significant Muslim population, becomes a focal point for these groups’ recruitment and radicalisation efforts. This scenario presents a challenging future for Russian security agencies as they grapple with an increasingly entrenched extremist presence and the potential for more frequent and sophisticated attacks.

In conclusion, the future security and stability of the North Caucasus is subject to multiple potential trajectories. The Russian government’s counter-terrorism efforts, socio-economic initiatives, and regional security operations will play a pivotal role in shaping these outcomes.

The interplay between local dynamics, the appeal of extremist ideologies, and the effectiveness of state responses will determine whether the region remains on a trajectory of improved security, persistent instability, or heightened extremist influence. As Russia continues to navigate these challenges, the balance between its security apparatus and the evolving threat landscape will be crucial in shaping the North Caucasus’ future security and stability.

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