The recent capitulation of Nagorno-Karabakh in the face of Azerbaijan’s military offensive has brought to light Russia’s recalibrated strategic approach in the region. This shift focuses on forging a robust alliance with both Baku and Ankara, a move designed to bolster the INSTC and leverage Turkish land as a potential hub for its new energy approach.
The establishment of the Dagestan National Centre in Russia and the Dagestan Volunteer Battalion ‘Imam Shamil’ in Ukraine underscores the reverberations of the Ukraine conflict in the North Caucasus. This development highlights a substantial threat emanating from various movements and organisations, advocating for the destabilisation and fragmentation of the Russian Federation.
Russia’s concerted efforts in Kyrgyzstan, focused on supporting local educational and humanitarian initiatives, represent a significant augmentation of its soft power and cultural influence in the region. The cornerstone of this strategy lies in the establishment of Russian language schools in Kyrgyzstan, a project actively backed by Moscow.
In the ongoing contest between Russia and Ukraine for endorsement from the Islamic world, the North Caucasus emerges as a critical asset in the Kremlin’s strategic arsenal. It serves as a linchpin for Moscow’s domestic political efforts in managing a diverse, multireligious, and multiethnic society, while also underpinning Russia’s foreign policy activities directed towards the Arab-Muslim world.
Nikol Pashinyan’s recent statements on Armenia’s ‘erroneous’ dependence on Russia may reflect a new direction in Yerevan’s foreign policy, signalling a desire to seek alternative solutions, particularly by cultivating stronger relationships with Western nations
CSTO Exercises in Belarus Highlight Moscow’s Concerns Over Europe and the Organisation’s New Military Strategy
The forthcoming CSTO exercises in Belarus serve as a clear demonstration of the organisation’s strategic commitment to safeguarding its member states, focusing particularly on protecting Moscow and Minsk from potential external threats originating from Europe.
Astrakhan Region in the System of Russia’s Geopolitical Priorities in the Current International Situation
The Astrakhan region has historically served as a significant centre of Russian presence in the Caspian region for centuries. Since the late 20th century, following the geopolitical shifts caused by the collapse of the Soviet Union, Astrakhan’s role in Russia’s Caspian policy has acquired considerable prominence.
China’s defence cooperation with Russia and Belarus and the 11th Moscow Conference on International Security
Chinese Minister of Defence’s visit to Russia and Belarus reflects the cooperation between these countries in the realm of defence and highlights the significance of multilateral discussions in ensuring global stability and security.
SpecialEurasia Team Visits Karachay-Cherkessia for the Forum of Indigenous Peoples of the Russian Federation
Given the significance of the North Caucasus region in the intricate Eurasian geopolitical landscape and the potential role of indigenous communities within Russian society, SpecialEurasia decided to visit the Republic of Karachay-Cherkessia to attend the Forum of Indigenous Peoples of the Russian Federation.
The recent mutiny led by the Private Military Company (PMC) Wagner in the Russian Federation brought forth a critical moment for President Vladimir Putin. During this crisis, Putin garnered the support of the Russian army, regional governors and heads of states, reaffirming his powerful position in the political and military landscape.
The orchestrated military rebellion, led by Evgeny Prigozhin, against the central authority in Russia, presents an opportunity for Ramzan Kadyrov, the Chechen leader, and his military troops to emerge as significant allies and actors in the Kremlin’s domestic and foreign policy landscape.
Recent developments in Russia have brought attention to the involvement of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) in an attempted armed rebellion or mutiny. The incident, which unfolded on the evening of June 23rd, 2023, has triggered a series of reactions and measures by key institutions, leaving the country on high alert.
Shifting Geopolitical Tides: St. Petersburg International Economic Forum Explores Russia’s Eastward Pivot
The St. Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) serves as a significant milestone in Russia’s foreign policy and economic strategy.
This report highlights the reasons the North Caucasus remains important and necessitates ongoing monitoring and provides some future scenarios about the region.
The recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has unveiled the Central Asian republic’s strategic role for Moscow’s foreign policy in the region in defence, security, economy and social sectors.
Dagestan and Tajikistan discussed expanding cooperation in different fields, especially the halal industry
Dagestan and Tajikistan’s entente on developing cooperation confirms the North Caucasus’s role in promoting relations between Russia and foreign countries, especially those in the blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) where the Kremlin wants to confirm its presence and influence.
The importance of KazanForum 2023 and the China-Central Asia Summit for Eurasia and the Islamic world’s geopolitics
The KazanForum 2023 and the “China-Central Asia” Summit definitely emphasise Kremlin and Beijing’s strategies in Eurasia and the Islamic world’s strategic areas in time of confrontation with the West.
CIA recruiting video for dissatisfied Russians: Intelligence and strategic communications during the Ukraine conflict
The CIA video in the Russian language published on YouTube, which invites dissatisfied Russians to provide information to the U.S. Intelligence agency, confirms Washington’s strategy to create a network of assets inside the Russian Federation and put pressure on the Kremlin.
On the surface, the Ukraine war appears to be a conflict between two primary actors, namely, the Russian Federation and the sovereign nation of Ukraine. On deeper analysis, however, it can be said that the Ukraine war is an example of great power competition.
Ingush activists announced the formation of the Ingush Liberation Army, threatening the Kremlin’s regional presence and strategy
The Kremlin might face a new wave of violent attacks or regional destabilisation due to the establishment of the Ingush Liberation Army, a military branch that the Ingush Independence Committee created to support an independent Ingushetia separated from the Russian Federation.
In the last months, the South Caucasus has again experienced regional turbulence. While there have been protests in Georgia over a controversial draft law that would have required some organisations receiving foreign funding to register as “foreign agents”, Armenia and Azerbaijan might be again on the edge of an escalation involving the CSTO and, therefore, Russia.
Increased Russian investments in Adygea confirm the Kremlin’s strategy to implement the North Caucasus’ socioeconomic development and transform the region into a logistics hub supporting the diversification of Russian exports.
SpecialEurasia discussed with Alexandr Sharov, General Director of the transport company LLC Neftekhimtrans, Group of companies Rusiranexpo, the current geopolitical significance of the INSTC and possible future developments and impact in the Eurasian strategic chessboard.
Russia-Uzbekistan-Kazakhstan’s ‘trilateral gas union’ might represent geopolitical leverage in favour of Moscow and Beijing because it might simultaneously satisfy the Chinese energy market’s needs and support the Russian and Chinese foreign policy in Central Asia.
The presence of the Musul’manskij korpus “Kavkaz” in the Ukraine conflict stressed the significant role that volunteer battalions have in supporting Kyiv and fighting against the Russian Federation, which they consider an imminent threat to the Ukrainian territory and the Muslim umma.
In Russia, the detention of five people connected with the terrorist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and a person linked to Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad confirmed FSB’s effort to guarantee regional security and avoid the link between local Russian citizens and terrorist organisations operating in the Middle East.