Executive Summary Uighur jihadism represents not only a menace for China’s internal stability but also for its reliability as a major actor in the international arena.
This report aims to analyse the intersection between the Uzbek and the Tajiks, which we can consider among the most influential ethnic jihadist groups in Central Asia.
The State Security Service of Georgia (SSG) detained three Georgian nationals in Adjara on 13 October 2025 for alleged affiliation with the so-called “Takbirist Jamaat”, a group ideologically aligned with the Islamic State.
On September 13, 2025, the TTP launched attacks against Pakistani security forces in South Waziristan and Lower Dir, which led to the deaths of 19 soldiers and no less than 35 militants.
This report assesses the recent Iranian counterterrorism operations in Sistan and Baluchestan Province targeting Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant organisation with a record of insurgency and cross-border activity.
This report examines the aftermath and security concerns in Pakistan’s Balochistan province following a recent violent attack in the Loralai district that killed nine people.
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa. In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities.
This report examines the resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the latest issue of al-Naba, a response to his attempts to engage with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. . The report details internal security threats, geopolitical shifts, and the dangers of jihadist insurgency.
This report evaluates the recent armed attack in Makhachkala within the broader context of persistent terrorist activity in the Republic of Dagestan. It assesses the tactical and strategic implications of recent violence targeting security forces and the state’s response capacity.
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
This report briefly describes the recent terrorist threats in Russia in April 2025 and underlines that international jihadist networks, aided by online propaganda and transnational collaboration, still create a persistent and multifaceted terrorist threat.
The Islamic State has issued a new propaganda video denouncing the Syrian transitional leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, to be apostate and illegitimate under Islamic law. This report analyse the video’s narrative and its impact on Syrian and regional security.
Recent security operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, have resulted in significant casualties. Separate clashes in Dera Ismail Khan and North Waziristan killed four Pakistani soldiers and 15 militants.
SpecialEurasia met with Mark Youngman to discuss his recent report “Terrorism and counterterrorism in the North Caucasus: 2024 trends” considering his vast experience as an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and independent researcher.
Tajik security forces suppressed an attempted prison break in Vahdat’s Colony No. 3/2, where Islamic State supporters staged a coordinated attack on guards. Official reports indicate that security forces killed three insurgents and detained the rest, though images suggest a higher casualty count.
This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan, focusing specifically on the Sino-Taliban relationship. The analysis considers the role of militant groups operating across the border and forecasts potential outcomes that could affect China’s strategic objectives in Central Asia and its broader regional influence.
This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.
This report aims to analyse the evolution of terrorism in Iran, highlighting its peak in the 1980s with over 17,000 fatalities and its subsequent decline because of improved security measures, citizen cooperation, and post-war reconstruction efforts.
The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external manipulation.
This report assesses the implications of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Aleppo, the potential death of its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the broader geopolitical impact on regional stability and key state actors.
The arrest of an Islamic State militant in Ukraine has raised concern on the country’s potential role as a transit territory towards Europe for terrorist groups and jihadist fighters.
This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.
This report examines how the Islamic State in the latest issue of al-Naba has leveraged the ongoing conflict between Israel and regional Shiite forces, particularly Hezbollah, to assert its position within the Muslim world.
The recent counter-terrorism operations in Ingushetia and Adygea underscore the persistent threat of terrorism within Russia and the government’s ongoing efforts to neutralise such threats.
The Iraqi military, in collaboration with Kurdish security forces, recently executed a successful operation in Kirkuk, dismantling two Islamic State hideouts. This operation highlights the ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State despite its official defeat in 2017.
The recent knife attack in Solingen, Germany, underscores Islamist terrorism’s persistent threat within the country, particularly from individuals with radical convictions linked to the Islamic State, and increases the regional’s security risk.
This report examines the content and implications of the article “Why Do Mujahideen of the Islamic State Make Rawafidh the Target of Their Operations and Turn Their Cities into Cemeteries?”, which serves as an ideological manifesto, justifying the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan’s (ISKP) ongoing campaign of violence against Shi’a Muslims.
This report covers the recent counter-terrorism operations in Kazakhstan, resulting in the arrest of five individuals involved in terrorism-related activities. The operations underscore the ongoing threat within the country and the effectiveness of the government’s response.
This report assesses security developments and counter-terrorism strategy in Tajikistan, focusing on the first half of 2024. It highlights the security implications of rising extremist activities compounded by internal challenges such as political repression, ethnic tensions, and economic instability.
This report examines the reactions of various terrorist organisations to the assassination of Ismail Haniyeh. The purpose is to offer a comprehensive examination of the immediate responses exhibited by significant terrorist organisations, appraise their potential strategic manoeuvres, and forecast the broader consequences for regional security.
Some sources indicate that terrorists, trained in a specialised UAV centre in Kunduz, Afghanistan, plan to execute attacks during the 2024 Paris Olympics. The existing threat of “drone jihad”, potentially involving graduates from the centre already present in Europe, requires urgent and stringent counterterrorism measures.
In a recent interview with Cusano News 7, Christian Tratzi, a Terrorism Analyst at SpecialEurasia, engaged in a comprehensive discussion with anchor-woman Giulia Cavola about the developing threat of terrorism on the international stage, with special focus on the European continent.
Al Azaim Foundation, the ISKP media branch, recently published an article titled “The Caliphate: the Last Pillar of the Islamic Nation” which underscored the group’s ideological commitment to the concept of the Caliphate, hailing it as a divinely ordained entity and portraying it as the ultimate saviour of the Islamic Ummah (community).
Al Azaim Foundation, the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) media wing, recently released a video titled “Followers of the Jews” that represents a strategic attempt to undermine the Taliban’s religious authority in Afghanistan.
The latest episode of the SpecialEurasia Geopolitical Report Podcast delves into the recent coordinated terrorist attacks that took place in the cities of Makhachkala and Derbent in Dagestan.
The violent attacks which targeted law enforcement and religious sites in Derbent and Makhachkala in the Republic of Dagestan highlight security issues in the North Caucasus and terrorist threats in the Russian Federation.
This report provides an analysis of recent terrorist incidents within the Russian Federation, focusing on the mutiny at a provincial detention centre in Rostov-on-Don and its connection with the Islamic State.
Kyrgyzstan faced a significant terrorism risk stemming from the activities of radical groups linked to international terrorist organisations, such as the Islamic State. Recent counter-terrorism operation near Bishkek highlighted both the active recruitment efforts targeting Kyrgyz youth and the nation’s challenges in addressing these threats effectively.
The security landscape of Georgia has experienced notable developments, particularly concerning the threat of terrorism. The recent detention in the city of Batumi of suspected terrorists linked to the Islamic State and the implementation of stringent anti-terrorism measures, highlight the country’s proactive stance.
In the last two weeks, the Islamic State Central Africa Wilayat (ISCAP) and its affiliate militia Forces démocratiques alliées (ADF) has significantly increased their activity in Central Africa, raising security risks related to terrorism and geopolitical instability in the region.
In response to a recent terrorist attack in Moscow and a shifting threat landscape, Central Asian security leaders met to prioritise countering online radicalisation. This report assesses the current security environment in Central Asia, highlighting emergent threats and critical areas requiring regional cooperation.
The recent audio message released by Islamic State’s official spokesman Abu Hudhayfah al-Ansari on March 28th, 2024, during Ramadan, highlights the group’s ongoing call to action and outlines its short-term propaganda strategy.
Malian Armed Forces conducted a joint military operation with Burkina Faso, and Niger which successfully eliminated Abu Huzeifa (Higgo al-Maghrebi), a high-ranking commander of the Islamic State in the Sahel Province (ISSP) also known as the Islamic State Greater Sahara (ISGS).
The resurgence of the Islamic State poses a significant threat to Italy and Europe, leveraging geopolitical events to bolster propaganda and recruitment efforts. The evolving landscape of terrorism, characterised by decentralised online radicalisation, presents challenges in surveillance and counteraction.
Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Islam has played a new role in the nation-building process in the Central Asian Republic of Uzbekistan. The region is witnessing a rising popularity of radical Salafi Islamism, marked by its fervent pursuit of overthrowing secular governments.
The recent arrests of teenagers linked to the Islamic State in both Germany and Switzerland serve as a stark reminder of the persistent threat posed by jihadist propaganda and terrorist organisations in Europe.
On April 8th, 2024, the Al Azaim Foundation released The Voice of Khurasan Issue 34 titled “The Bear Bewildered.” This publication analysed the recent terrorist attacks in Moscow defined as a ‘retaliation’ and serves as a call to action aimed at mobilising the Muslim Ummah against perceived Western invasions and advocating for the restoration of the Caliphate.
With the recent terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow, committed by fighters from the SCO region, and in Kerman, Iran, the organisation created to combating terrorism, separatism, and extremism increased the intelligence cooperation and the alert level
The recent publication of the first issue of The Voice of Khurasan in the Tajik language (Sadoi Khurasan) underlined the Islamic State Wilayat Khurasan’s strategy to interest Tajik speakers in Central Asia and increase the pressure against Dushanbe’s government.
In this podcast episode, we analysed the threat posed by the Islamic State Vilayat Khorasan (IS-Khorasan) and its connection with Central Asian citizens . The podcast delves into various aspects of IS-Khorasan’s activities, including its involvement in terrorist attacks, recruitment strategies, and propaganda dissemination.
Following the Crocus City Hall attack, the Islamic State has further increased its online propaganda, inviting its affiliates to conduct new actions globally. The activity of Islamic State provinces in Africa and the Middle East has not ceased and has indeed seen a further increase in attacks against civilians.
Understanding the nature and dynamics of terrorism threats is crucial for ensuring the safety and security of nations worldwide. This knowledge will not only enhance strategic insights, but also provide a valuable perspective on the ever-evolving landscape of global security.
The devastating terrorist attack that occurred in Moscow on March 22nd, 2024, resulting in 147 casualties and hundreds injured, has starkly emphasised the urgent need to combat terrorism, particularly in the face of the escalating influence of the Islamic State within the spectrum of jihadist groups. This report seeks to address several key questions pertaining to the attack and its implications for Russia.
The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat of terrorism within Russia. The indiscriminate violence unleashed by unknown assailants resulted in 40 fatalities and over 100 injuries, highlighting the vulnerability of civilian gatherings and cultural institutions to extremist acts.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could have represented one of the main reasons that pushed the Islamic State to communicate a new approach to the Middle Eastern dynamics characterised by the Islamic Resistance Movement’s attack against Israeli cities on October 7th, 2023, and the following Tel Aviv’s military operation in the Gaza Strip.
In our recent podcast episode, we delved into the intricacies of security and terrorism in the North Caucasus, explaining the geopolitical significance this region holds for Russia and its broader role on the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
FSB special forces’ counter-terrorism operation in Ingushetia stressed Russia’s readiness and strategy to counter the terrorist threat and jihadist propaganda’s impact in those regions as the North Caucasus mainly inhabited by Muslims.
Islamic State’s activity in the Horn of Africa continues to be a security regional challenge considering the local escalation of attacks, especially in the Mozambique’s Cabo Delgado province. The resurgence of violence, conducted by the Islamic State Mozambique (Ansar al-Sunna) hit both civilians and security forces and resulted in casualties and infrastructure destruction, affecting regional stability and investment plans, particularly in the liquefied natural gas (LNG) sector.
The confrontation between the Islamic State – Somalia Province and al-Shabaab presents significant challenges for regional stability and security. Recent developments underscore IS strategic earns in eastern Somalia, including territorial expansions following the clashes with al-Shabaab forces.
Following the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan and the subsequent establishment of the Islamic Emirate, the country has witnessed a surge in terrorist attacks targeting the Taliban, ethnic minorities, and foreigners and a rise in al-Qaeda’s activities.
Understanding the impact that jihadist propaganda and violent attacks have on regional dynamics is fundamental to assess the geopolitical risk that a target area might face. The primary aim of this report is to gather Islamic State West Africa Wilayah (ISWAP)’s statements, which are dispersed across various media channels, in order to acquire insights into the group’s rhetoric and propaganda techniques.
This report aims to describe recent events surrounding ISWAP after the death of Ba’ha Shuwa and the security situation in Western Africa and also wants to assess regional geopolitical risk considering Islamic State fighters’ growing violent attacks and jihadist propaganda.
The arrest of a jihadist network in Spain underscores the persistent threat posed by Islamic State affiliates within the country. Through effective inter-agency collaboration, the Spanish police successfully dismantled a significant terrorist network and confiscated cryptocurrency channels employed for financing extremist activities.
The international Islamist movement, Hizb ut-Tahrir, has intensified its propaganda targeting India. Recent arrests of several militants affiliated with the group in Central and Southern Indian states, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, confirm the covert presence of this organisation within the country.
Iran’s recent military strikes on Jaish al-Adl bases in Pakistan, following earlier actions in northern Iraq and Syria, have escalated tensions in the region. The strikes resulted in casualties, including the death of two children, prompting strong condemnation from Pakistan.
Terrorists affiliated with the Islamic State might exploit the Ukrainian refugee crisis to infiltrate Germany and the European Union, posing a significant threat to national security. German security officials have reported an increase in individuals from Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan, masquerading as Ukrainian refugees, utilising false documents and fictitious narratives to evade stringent checks.
The terrorist attack organised by the Islamic State in the Iranian city of Kerman highlighted the terrorist group’s resurgence and increasing threat in the Middle East, especially against the Shia community.
Two bomb explosions near the tomb of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani have resulted in at least 103 fatalities and numerous injuries in Kerman. The incident occurred on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s US drone strike assassination.
Amidst escalating concerns over the Sahel’s increasing jihadist activities and destabilisation processes that have intricately impacted regional geopolitical dynamics, this report aims to delve into the current state of affairs in the Sahel region, with a focused examination of jihadist groups and internal political and security dynamics, given the pivotal role the region plays in shaping Africa’s geopolitical landscape.
The recent arrest of a 23-year-old individual in Ingushetia, implicated in supporting online Imarat Kavkaz, underscores the persistent threat posed by this terrorist organisation in the North Caucasus region. While empirical evidence suggests a strong diminished operational capacity on the ground, the organisation’s propaganda remains a potent force capable of influencing local sentiments.
This report aims to provide a historical background on Mojahedin-e Khalq’s activities, supported by a dialogue with Javad Hasheminejad, the Secretary General of Habilian Association and the son of a political figure killed by MEK because of his leading role in the Islamic Revolution in Mashhad in the early ‘80s.
This report underlines that Syria, in collaboration with its allies, Russia and Iran, must address this persistent threat to prevent further destabilisation and potential spillover into neighbouring Iraq. Additionally, a comprehensive strategy that combines economic recovery, improved security, and counter-radicalisation efforts is necessary to mitigate the ongoing influence of the Islamic State in Syria.
The recent arrest of individuals implicated in orchestrating a series of violent assaults within the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran underscores the profound and persistent terrorist menace facing the national Shi’a community.
Since the Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan and considering recent developments within Pakistan, the regional security landscape has witnessed a discernible deterioration, primarily because of the escalating terrorist menace emanating from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
The assassination of Qari Mohammad Dawezi in Afghanistan, a field commander affiliated with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction withing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), highlights the intensifying factional infighting within the organisation and the significant role that the Afghan territory has for jihadist militants.
The Azerbaijani State Security Service recently detained an Afghan citizen who had been planning a terrorist attack within the country. This alarming development highlights the ongoing global threat of terrorism and the importance of maintaining public stability and security.
A recent operation by German federal prosecutors has uncovered a suspected jihadist cell composed of seven individuals from Central Asia. This development highlights the severity of the terrorist threat faced by Europe from external sources.
By improving security and defence cooperations, Pakistan is trying to increase its influence on Tajikistan and the regional security system of Central Asia as a whole and prevent the rise of jihadist groups.
The recent counterterrorism operation conducted in the Lanao del Sur province of the Philippines has brought terrorism to the forefront in this Asian nation.
The Kyrgyz special operation to arrest an armed group in Dmitrievka, which resulted in the elimination of a suspected terrorist who fought in Syria, highlighted that Kyrgyzstan is not immune to terrorism or jihadist propaganda.
The Taliban continue their effort to contrast and eliminate the Islamic State’s threat, confirming the Islamic Emirate necessity to stabilise the country to attract foreign investors and international consensus.
CENTCOM’s killing of a senior Islamic State Syria leader stressed the US commitment to fighting the terrorist threats and emphasised the persistent instability in the Middle East related to jihadist and terrorist activities.
In questa ricerca verrà analizzato il trinomio cambiamenti climatici, conseguenze sulla popolazione e terrorismo in Asia destinato, se la comunità internazionale non provvederà a fermare questo trend, ad essere presente nelle agende internazionali negli anni a venire.
In Russia, the detention of five people connected with the terrorist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and a person linked to Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad confirmed FSB’s effort to guarantee regional security and avoid the link between local Russian citizens and terrorist organisations operating in the Middle East.
The Islamic State terrorist attack against the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Afghanistan in Kabul stressed the unstable situation in the country and the Taliban’s inability to face terrorism and jihadist groups. Although the Taliban claimed that they had upgraded the national security situation since they took power in August 2021, the number of violent attacks and bomb blast have increased.
Recent counterterrorism military drills in Tajikistan highlighted Dushanbe’s necessity to upgrade its readiness and expertise in facing terrorist threats inside the country and jihadist activities from neighbouring areas of Afghanistan.
Recent violent attacks in Iraq demonstrated that Islamic State continues to pose a severe threat to civilians and security forces, even though the government declared its ‘total defeat’ in 2017.
Since Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended the ceasefire with the Pakistani Government, security has worsened in the country. Recent violent attacks in Pakistan and militants’ seizure of the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) compound in the Bannu district have also alarmed neighbouring countries and foreign investors who are worried about future Pakistani stability.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 26 Issue 3 – SpecialEurasia met with the Serbian university professor Marija Djoric to discuss the current security situation and terrorist threat in the Balkans.
Recent arrests of Russian citizens in the Stavropol territory linked with the Islamic State confirmed that jihadist propaganda penetrated the Russian territory by exploiting local problems and influencing the Muslim communities disseminated in the country, especially in the North Caucasus, where the Kremlin has contrasted local militancy and religious extremism.
SpecialEurasia decided to stop its online activities in August 2022 to organise next season’s projects and propose an updated website focused on geopolitical analysis, risk assessment, security monitoring and forecasting.
The killing of al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Kabul by a U.S. drone strike confirmed Washington’s interests in the region and the Taliban’s policy to host terrorist organisations’ high-ranking leaders in the country, which has become a “safe heaven” for different jihadist groups.
The establishment of Tehrik-e Taliban Tajikistan (TTT) alarmed Dushanbe Government. It highlighted how the security situation in Central Asia linked with Afghanistan has deteriorated since the Taliban took power in Kabul in August 2021.
Central Asian republics want to establish solid regional cooperation to promote socio-economic projects to stabilise the area and contrast rising problems such as widespread disappointment and protests, terrorist threats and security issues related to the current situation in Afghanistan.
In Tajikistan, local security forces and authorities emphasised the rising threat of terrorism and extremism in the country in the last six months, confirming that terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State have been able to exploit local disappointment and the unresolved issues that in Gorno-Badakhshan.
On June 24th, 2022, SpecialEurasia, in cooperation with Criminalità e Giustizia, CISINT, Cesintel, IPA, ADR 360 and CCMN, organised an online webinar to present the book “Conflict in Ukraine: geopolitical risk, jihadist propaganda and threat for Europe”.
The Russian Federation is not immune to jihadist propaganda and terrorist activities. Arrests in the last months of people connected to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have demonstrated that this terrorist organisation has created or attempted to create a network in different Russian regions.
Every week, the Islamic State releases its magazine al-Naba, which gives significant insights into the group’s activities and might support the risk assessment of future operations, violent attacks and propaganda campaigns.
In the last couple of months, Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) and its local Central Asian militants have been increasing their propaganda output by directly targeting regional countries (especially Uzbekistan), calling for attacks against local governments and jihad in Central Asia.
The Islamic State started its jihadist propaganda in India in 2020 during the pandemic crisis publishing its magazine Voice of Hind or Sawt al-Hind to exhort Indian Muslims to wage jihad and carry out attacks in the country.