This report examines the geopolitical consequences of the armed clash on August 24, 2025, which involved Tajikistan border forces and Taliban fighters near the Panj River.
Pakistan’s hosting of a high-level regional defence chiefs conference brought together senior military officials from the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
This report highlights the significant increase in narcotics trafficking and related law enforcement operations across Central Asia, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
This report provides a focused analysis of the developing security landscape in Central Asia, examining the increasing role of intelligence agencies and special forces in fostering regional cooperation amid shifting geopolitical realities. This report aims to evaluate the significance of recent security collaboration initiatives, analyse the root causes of defence reforms, and project how future events may influence regional stability.
This report briefly describes the recent terrorist threats in Russia in April 2025 and underlines that international jihadist networks, aided by online propaganda and transnational collaboration, still create a persistent and multifaceted terrorist threat.
The Fergana Valley, a strategically significant region in Central Asia, has long been a focal point of geopolitical tensions and economic development challenges. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, unresolved border disputes, ethnic tensions, terrorism, and economic fragility have shaped the valley.
This report evaluates Tajikistan’s ongoing military modernisation efforts, spearheaded by President Emomali Rahmon, focusing on the integration of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the broader geopolitical and economic challenges associated with the country’s defence strategy.
SpecialEurasia met with Mark Youngman to discuss his recent report “Terrorism and counterterrorism in the North Caucasus: 2024 trends” considering his vast experience as an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and independent researcher.
This report, based on open sources and publicly available information (PAI), aims at analysing the geopolitical risk and criminal scenarios in Myanmar, particularly focusing on the Shan State.
SpecialEurasia had the privilege of participating in the 8th CSO 360 Congress, a high-level international summit held in Rome, on December 4-6, 2025, which convened security leaders and experts from the corporate and governmental spheres.
The Iraqi military, in collaboration with Kurdish security forces, recently executed a successful operation in Kirkuk, dismantling two Islamic State hideouts. This operation highlights the ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State despite its official defeat in 2017.
Kazakhstan’s 2024 military modernisation initiatives significantly enhance its defence capabilities, reflecting concerns over internal stability and regional security. The country’s efforts include advanced procurements and comprehensive upgrades, which could alter Central Asia’s military balance.
In this report, we will first discuss the current situation of the Northwest Syria, then we will introduce and provide brief information about the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which operates locally. In the end, we analyse the future of this region.
In response to a recent terrorist attack in Moscow and a shifting threat landscape, Central Asian security leaders met to prioritise countering online radicalisation. This report assesses the current security environment in Central Asia, highlighting emergent threats and critical areas requiring regional cooperation.
A helicopter carrying Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir Abdollahian crashed in mountainous terrain amid heavy fog while returning from a visit to Iran’s border with Azerbaijan. The incident, which places the lives of both officials at serious risk, has prompted extensive rescue efforts hindered by adverse weather conditions.
The last meeting in Fergana between the heads of the security services of Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan accentuated the countries’ desire to cooperate in regional security to face cross-border challenges, such as terrorism and extremism.
Russia and Tajikistan are currently engaged in joint counterterrorism exercises, which have become even more crucial because of the rise in terrorist activities in Afghanistan. This partnership between Moscow and Dushanbe highlights their commitment to enhancing military and defence cooperation.
The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat of terrorism within Russia. The indiscriminate violence unleashed by unknown assailants resulted in 40 fatalities and over 100 injuries, highlighting the vulnerability of civilian gatherings and cultural institutions to extremist acts.
The Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) project, launched by Xi Jinping in 2013, identified the Xinjiang Autonomous Region (XUAR) as a vital component in expanding China’s political and economic reach in Central Asia and addressing the Malacca dilemma. Taking into consideration geography, economics, and the complicated Uyghur situation, the analysis seeks to understand Beijing’s interests in XUAR.
In our recent podcast episode, we delved into the intricacies of security and terrorism in the North Caucasus, explaining the geopolitical significance this region holds for Russia and its broader role on the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
FSB special forces’ counter-terrorism operation in Ingushetia stressed Russia’s readiness and strategy to counter the terrorist threat and jihadist propaganda’s impact in those regions as the North Caucasus mainly inhabited by Muslims.
The international Islamist movement, Hizb ut-Tahrir, has intensified its propaganda targeting India. Recent arrests of several militants affiliated with the group in Central and Southern Indian states, including Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Telangana, and Tamil Nadu, confirm the covert presence of this organisation within the country.
The United States is escalating its military involvement in the Middle East to counter the resurgence of the Islamic State. This includes a substantial deployment in Syria and Iraq. Concurrently, the Red Sea crisis involving Houthis’ attacks poses a multifaceted challenge, impacting regional stability and exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and the broader dynamics of the Middle East.
Although Tajik President Emomali Rahmon announced to the nation a prosperous future, Tajikistan still faces essential problems related to domestic stability, the threat coming from neighbouring Afghanistan, the government’s management of Gorno-Badakhshan, and the economic performance.
Our primary aim is to facilitate informed decision-making and proactively anticipate potential challenges in Central Asia. We achieve this by thoroughly assessing and closely monitoring the region’s significant geopolitical dynamics. Through this report, we present a nuanced perspective on the factors that demand continuous scrutiny, fostering a proactive approach to navigate the complex geopolitical currents shaping Central Asia in the coming year.
Two bomb explosions near the tomb of Iranian General Qasem Soleimani have resulted in at least 103 fatalities and numerous injuries in Kerman. The incident occurred on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s US drone strike assassination.
In this paper published in Geopolitical Report ISSN 2532-845X Vol. 4 Year 2023, the author Gabriele Massano examined tensions at the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan and the impact of the Taliban and Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) on Pakistani security situation.
The Russian ambassador in Dushanbe recently underscored a notable upswing in collaborative efforts between Russia and Tajikistan, specifically in the realms of security and countering drug trafficking, confirming Moscow’s strategy to strengthen its influence in the Central Asian republic.
This report underlines that Syria, in collaboration with its allies, Russia and Iran, must address this persistent threat to prevent further destabilisation and potential spillover into neighbouring Iraq. Additionally, a comprehensive strategy that combines economic recovery, improved security, and counter-radicalisation efforts is necessary to mitigate the ongoing influence of the Islamic State in Syria.
Since the Taliban’s ascension to power in Afghanistan and considering recent developments within Pakistan, the regional security landscape has witnessed a discernible deterioration, primarily because of the escalating terrorist menace emanating from Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP).
Iran’s admittance to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) as a full member is a noteworthy step that has greatly impacted the geopolitical arena of the region.
Recent developments in Russia have brought attention to the involvement of the Wagner Private Military Company (PMC) in an attempted armed rebellion or mutiny. The incident, which unfolded on the evening of June 23rd, 2023, has triggered a series of reactions and measures by key institutions, leaving the country on high alert.
The recent meeting between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon has unveiled the Central Asian republic’s strategic role for Moscow’s foreign policy in the region in defence, security, economy and social sectors.
The recent counterterrorism operation conducted in the Lanao del Sur province of the Philippines has brought terrorism to the forefront in this Asian nation.
To acquire a competitive edge, entrepreneurs must have access to timely and relevant information about their rivals, industry trends, and market dynamics. In this context, Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) emerges as a valuable tool for competitive intelligence.
SpecialEurasia met in Rome H.E. Julianne Smith, the US Ambassador to NATO to investigate the conflict in Ukraine, the Chinese threat, and global challenges such as terrorism, issues which the Atlantic Alliance will discuss at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July 2023.
The presence of the Musul’manskij korpus “Kavkaz” in the Ukraine conflict stressed the significant role that volunteer battalions have in supporting Kyiv and fighting against the Russian Federation, which they consider an imminent threat to the Ukrainian territory and the Muslim umma.
In Russia, the detention of five people connected with the terrorist organisation Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, and a person linked to Katiba al-Tawhid wal-Jihad confirmed FSB’s effort to guarantee regional security and avoid the link between local Russian citizens and terrorist organisations operating in the Middle East.
The Islamic State terrorist attack against the Foreign Affairs Ministry of Afghanistan in Kabul stressed the unstable situation in the country and the Taliban’s inability to face terrorism and jihadist groups. Although the Taliban claimed that they had upgraded the national security situation since they took power in August 2021, the number of violent attacks and bomb blast have increased.
SpecialEurasia wants to celebrate the last year of activities with our friends, partners, sponsors, and followers, hoping to begin the following year with the same commitment. In 2022, we have improved our activities and projects and affirmed our presence in Italy and abroad thanks to webinars, official visits, meetings, and training courses.
Since Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended the ceasefire with the Pakistani Government, security has worsened in the country. Recent violent attacks in Pakistan and militants’ seizure of the Counter-Terrorism Department (CTD) compound in the Bannu district have also alarmed neighbouring countries and foreign investors who are worried about future Pakistani stability.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 26 Issue 3 – SpecialEurasia met with the Serbian university professor Marija Djoric to discuss the current security situation and terrorist threat in the Balkans.
While the CSTO military exercises were taking place in Tajikistan, Dushanbe received U.S. representatives who confirmed Washington’s interest and strategy in strengthening the security and defence of the Tajik-Afghan borders.
SpecialEurasia decided to stop its online activities in August 2022 to organise next season’s projects and propose an updated website focused on geopolitical analysis, risk assessment, security monitoring and forecasting.
The establishment of Tehrik-e Taliban Tajikistan (TTT) alarmed Dushanbe Government. It highlighted how the security situation in Central Asia linked with Afghanistan has deteriorated since the Taliban took power in Kabul in August 2021.
The Russian Federation is not immune to jihadist propaganda and terrorist activities. Arrests in the last months of people connected to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham have demonstrated that this terrorist organisation has created or attempted to create a network in different Russian regions.
Since 2003, the situation in Iraq has undergone a significant change, and the country has had to face a process of modernisation and democratisation combined with the fight against the various local terrorist organisations, primarily the Islamic State, which have undermined the local stability and represented a threat to the security of the Iraqi people.
Recent clashes in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, border security problems with Afghanistan and the last Islamic State terrorist attack have underlined the problematic situation that Tajikistan needs to manage to guarantee national stability and security.
Last night SpecialEurasia platform faced a cyber attack, but our team managed to overcome the problem and restore the website and its activity.
In the aftermath of the events in Ukraine and the sanctions imposed on Russia, European countries are straggling in search of alternative gas imports. Turkey started a military operation in northern Iraq to ensure gas supplies from Kurdish fields.
On April 6th, 2022, SpecialEurasia organised the webinar “Afghanistan: geopolitical interests, humanitarian crisis and security” to address the Italian public opinion on the current situation of the Afghan people after the U.S. troops’ withdrawal and the Taliban’s seize of power.
Recently, a video published by Al-Azaim Foundation, Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP)’s mouthpiece in the region, harshly lashed out against the Taliban and their relations with the international community and particularly neighbouring countries, including Pakistan, China, and Russia.
After the Islamic State (IS) leadership announced the appointment of the new organisation’s Caliph, Abu al-Hassan al-Hashimi al-Quraysh, we might predict increasing terrorist attacks and operations in Eurasia, especially in the AfPak, Syria and Iraq.
Ukraine conflict and the Russian military operations highlight that international security can only be mutual, based on relevant contractual obligations and tangible actions that create an atmosphere of mutual trust.
The al-Furqan media, which handles the official communications of the Islamic State leadership, announced the release of a new media product shortly, which might reveal the new Islamic State’s Caliph or comment on the current Ukraine conflict.
The recent terrorist attack in Peshawar underlined security problems in Pakistan linked to different terrorist groups that operate in the region, especially between the Afghan-Pakistani border, and stressed Islamabad and Kabul’s current inability to completely contrast the Islamic State’s threat.
The Ukraine conflict has attracted the attention of foreign fighters eager to fight against the Russian troops and the Chechen kadyrovtsy. If the war lasts longer than Moscow planned, there is a severe threat that Ukraine might evolve into a battleground where foreign fighters will promote terrorism and jihadist propaganda.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which has just begun, could also have implications in the sphere of the operations and propaganda of the Salafist-jihadist organisations.
In Afghanistan, the Taliban are arresting or kidnapping the Balochi to please Islamabad. Last week, the Balochistan Liberation Army organised violent attacks which severely hit the Pakistani army and threatened Chinese interests in the region.
Recent separate summits between China, India and Central Asian republics stressed New Delhi – Beijing’s competition in the region and their attempt to influence local dynamics exploiting the current situation in Afghanistan, economic cooperation, investments in infrastructural projects, and security cooperation against terrorism.
On January 27th, 2022, SpecialEurasia organised the Webinar “Geopolitica e conflitti nel Caucaso: sfide attuali e sviluppi futuri” to analyse with scholars and experts the current situation of the Caucasus and discuss future developments and challenges in the region.
The Foreign Affairs Minister of the Taliban interim Government Amir Khan Muttaqi said that he had met with the head of the National Resistance Front Ahmad Massoud and the leader of the Herat militia Mohammad Ismail Khan in Tehran.
The recent Kazakh political crisis and the CSTO military intervention in the country marked a new phase in the geopolitics of Central Asia since the Kremlin re-established its grip on the Republic of Kazakhstan after having military and politically supported President Toqayev.
The recent border clashes between the Taliban and Turkmen security forces highlight how fragile the security situation is in the region. As a matter of fact, in the last month, the Taliban also collided with the Iranian and Pakistani border guards.
Amid the burgeoning sentimental relationship between Beijing and the resurrected Taliban’s Emirate 2.0, the al Qaeda-affiliated Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has aggravated its propaganda war against Communist China, hence cleverly concealing its historically faithful jihadi bonds with the Afghan Taliban.
The presence of Uyghur suicide bombers in the ranks of the Islamic State-Khorasan increases Beijing’s fears about the threat to China’s national security emanating from Afghanistan.
We have monitored terrorist and violent attacks in Afghanistan in 2021 and produced an interactive map to assess which regions are affected mainly by terrorist organisations and analyse how terrorism has evolved or changed since the Taliban’s rise to power.
The Manama Dialogue in Bahrain highlighted that the United States are still interested in Middle Eastern geopolitics and dynamics. In this regard, the White House might increase its cooperation and connection with Kurdistan to coordinate the fight against the Islamic State and contrast the Iranian and Russian presence and influence in the region.
The Taliban’s pragmatic diplomacy and gradual departure from the Jihadi ideology alienate Central Asian jihadists from the Taliban and strengthen its ardent enemy, the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). Taliban-backed Uyghur jihadists, who exploited shahids (martyr) exclusively against the Chinese authorities in the past, recently carried out a suicide attack against the Shia Hazara minority under Taliban rule.
China might expand its military presence in Central Asia by establishing bases in those countries where Beijing has invested financial funds to support the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, since the U.S. troops withdraw from Kabul, Beijigin aims to control border dynamics with Afghanistan, particularly in Tajikistan, and fill the vacuum left by Western military forces.
The Central Asian republic of Kyrgyzstan and China discussed implementing security cooperation to contrast terrorism, extremism, and separatism in the region and counter organised crime and illicit traffic. Since Kyrgyzstan play a decisive role in the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative, Beijing has economically supported the Kyrgyz economy and national development as the domestic security […]
The recent meetings between Uzbek and Taliban official representatives organised to discuss humanitarian assistance and joint economic and infrastructural projects underline Tashkent’s strategy to establish relations with the Taliban government to stabilise its borders and promote an economic partnership considered as necessary for the security and stability of the region.
The recent terrorist attack in Kunduz alarmed Tajikistan and Russia on the stability and security of the Afghan-Tajik borders and the Taliban ability to counter Islamic State and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. In this framework, Moscow and Dushanbe are seeking to enhance their cooperation in the security field, confirming the Russian strategy to play a decisive role in Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Laplace’s Demon is the Russian solution in Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) adopted to contrast phenomena such as terrorism, radicalization, criminal activities or monitor brand reputation, inter-ethnic conflicts and economic trends.
The recent visit of Nikolai Patrushev to India underlines prospects of cooperation between Moscow and New Delhi on regional security and geopolitics, particularly after the U.S. troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and the Taliban rise to power.
The complete NATO troops withdrawal from Afghanistan and the rise of the Taliban mark the beginning of a new geopolitical game in the region, which involves China, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, India and Turkey. At the same time, the United States seems to have increased their strategic interest in the Asia-Pacific to counter Chinese sea power and in the Middle East to confront Iran.
The eventuality that Iran has supported the creation of a Shiite militant organisation in Afghanistan has caused diplomatic tensions among Tehran and Kabul and highlighted how fragile the country’s situation might be after the NATO troops withdrawal.
Pakistani officials have shown their interest in developing economic cooperation with Uzbekistan due to Islamabad’s regional strategy in Central Asia and Pakistan’s desire to play a more influential role in the region to counter India and support the Chinese Belt and Road Initiative.
The Russian Federation wants militarily to support Tajikistan with the aim of controlling the borders with Afghanistan and contrasting the possible Taliban offensive in the region.
Afghanistan is a strategic country in Eurasia, a land where superpowers (British Empire, Soviet Union, the United States) had known their limits trying to control the local population and include it in their geopolitical strategy. Therefore, we decide to discuss current dynamics and future developments of Afghanistan with Jill Suzanne Kornetsky, a Kabul-based consultant, researcher, analyst and social entrepreneur.
The National Directorate of Security of the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan reported that Afghan security forces killed a high-ranking member of al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), Mohammad Hanif. Despite the Taliban has often denied their involvement with al-Qaeda, latest military operations have underlined how strong is the presence and penetration of the terrorist organisation in Afghanistan.
On Wednesday morning in Kabul, unknown assailants attacked the motorcade of the first Vice-President of Afghanistan, Amrullah Saleh. The politician was not injured during the attempt. This event underlines how complex is the current situation of Afghanistan due to the Talibans’ activities and the presence of jihadist fighters linked to the Islamic State and foreign actors.
The recent attempt to organise a terrorist attack in Vladikavkaz highlighted that the North Caucasus had not defeated local and international terrorism, and jihadist organisations are still a severe threat in the region.
Because Afghanistan matters in geopolitics and its stability might be considered as one of the main goals of the international community, we decided to meet H.E. Helena Malikyar, the Ambassador of Afghanistan to Italy to discuss issues related to the security, stability, economic development and future challenges in Afghanistan.
The US – Taliban deal should be only interpreted as an agreement between Washington and a specific group of Taliban for the safe passage of the US troops’ withdrawal. The agreement was welcomed as a success in diplomacy. However, the war in the country cannot be considered over since in Afghanistan several factions of Taliban and different terrorist groups connected to external actors are operating.
The abolition of Minkavkaz might be considered part of the political-institutional reshuffle which Putin started in the Russian Federation. This decision might be interpreted as the Kremlin’s will to change its approach to the North Caucasian dynamics.
The Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) recently published a quarterly report which highlights that over the last quarter of 2019, the number of Taliban attacks in Afghanistan increased by 17% compared to the same period in 2018. The high level of attacks conducted by the Taliban might seriously threaten the dialogue on the peace agreement started by the United States.
Even though Islam is one of the main national confessions in Russia, the Kremlin has faced internal problems such as Islamophobia related to the terrorist attacks and jihadist propaganda disseminated on Russian soil.