This assessment analyses how renewed United States tariffs on countries trading with Tehran, combined with internal instability in Iran, affect Armenia’s economic resilience and strategic posture.
The Islamic State has launched a strategic ideological offensive via the editorial of al-Naba Issue 530, specifically designed to exploit domestic fractures following President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s issuance of Decree No. 13.
This report assesses the drivers, dynamics, and strategic implications of the current wave of arrests and nationwide unrest in Iran amid acute economic collapse and heightened external pressure.
This report examines Russia’s readiness to assist Iran in suppressing the protests by analysing the strategic partnership between Moscow and Tehran.
This report explains whether Iran will close the Strait of Hormuz considering a potential military conflict with Israel and the United States.
This report examines the impact of increasing political volatility within the United States on Middle East security dynamics, highlighting a decline in US predictability as a key risk factor.
The Iranian state is formalising a transition to a “war conditions” framework under Article 79, signalling a shift toward emergency command-and-control measures to address the systemic exhaustion of fiscal buffers and the “terminal volatility” of the rial.
The internal security situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran has reached a critical threshold as localised economic grievances coalesce into broader political defiance.
This report evaluates the Middle East’s geopolitical risk for 2026, a year defined by the precarious “armed peace” following the 2025 Israel-Iran kinetic escalation and the first anniversary of the Syrian transition.
Islamic State has recently published Issue 525 of al-Naba, whose editorial condemns the recent developments in Syria and the current government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa and exhorts local Muslims to fight against a leadership described as ‘an instrument of foreign powers.’
This report examines Iran’s long-term strategy to become a key link between Asian and European markets via the Marand–Cheshmeh Soraya rail corridor.
This report examines the current state of Iran’s water crisis and its implications for the country’s political trajectory.
Kazakhstan announced its intention to join the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit in Washington D.C. to attend the “Central Asia + United States” Summit.
This report examines the emerging U.S. plan to establish a military airbase in Syria, as reported by multiple sources, and assesses the strategic objectives and associated risks of such a deployment.
The report analyses the immediate economic and geopolitical effects of current events in Iran, encompassing the private sector’s formal appeal to President Masoud Pezeshkian for urgent currency and regulatory reform amid a “neither war nor peace” climate, alongside a significant strengthening of Central Bank actions against rial-based stablecoin channels.
The formation of the Islamic Resistance Front in Syria (Ouli al-Ba’s) marks the emergence of a new actor within the Syrian conflict, positioning itself as a nationalist and religiously inspired “resistance” front opposing Israeli, Turkish, and Western presence in southern Syria.
This report assesses the recent Iranian counterterrorism operations in Sistan and Baluchestan Province targeting Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni militant organisation with a record of insurgency and cross-border activity.
This report examines the nature and objectives of the Israel David’s Corridor and its implications for Middle Eastern security and regional geopolitical dynamics.
This report analyses Tehran’s recent upgrades in its military and air defence network, especially after unveiling the Rastakhiz missile, signalling readiness to deter or respond to future hostilities.
This report examines how gas transit through Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Syria currently aids Damascus’ energy needs and economic growth, Baku’s export diversification efforts, and Ankara’s Middle East ambitions.
Renewed fighting between Druze and Bedouin groups in Suwayda province has caused a major humanitarian and economic crisis in Southern Syria.
The Islamic Republic of Iran started increased its diplomatic and economic pivot towards the East, engaging intensively with Russia, China, and India during the recent SCO Summit and in the aftermath of the conflict with Israel in June 2025.
On 8 July 2025, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi met with Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman in what appears to be the first senior bilateral engagement since the cessation of hostilities between Israel and Iran on 24 June.
The 17th Eurasian Cooperation Organisation (ECO) Summit held on 3–4 July 2025 in Stepanakert (Khankendi) stressed Azerbaijan’s domestic and regional strategy and Iran’s attempt to normalise relations with Baku.
This report examines Saudi Arabia’s recent $20 million investment in Tajikistan’s education infrastructure, which is part of a larger development program totalling $325 million.
This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.
This report analyses the strategic implications of the Israel–Iran conflict on China’s regional interests, focusing on the disruption of Beijing’s energy, logistical, and geopolitical investments.
This report assesses the key ideological and operational narratives presented in the 500th issue of Al-Naba, the Islamic State’s official publication, considering the recent Israeli-Iranian conflict.
This report analyses the implications of recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, undertaken in full coordination with Israel.
This report assesses the recent Israel-Iran conflict looking at the countries’ strategic priorities, risks, and developing operational factors, and considers the possibility of broader US involvement.
This report analyses the strategic and security implications of Israel-Iran ongoing conflict for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), highlighting a significant escalation in regional hostilities.
This report assesses the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and the possible US involvement after the recent words of Donald Trump. The conflict has rapidly intensified, leading to significant casualties and drawing global attention at the G7 summit.
Within the larger context of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, this report studies Russia’s current geopolitical manoeuvring in the Arab and Muslim world. Russia could use the conflict to strengthen ties with Arab and Muslim nations.
This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.
This report assesses the June 13, 2025, Israeli-Iranian military conflict, analysing key operational events such as Tehran’s military retaliations and Tel Aviv’s strategic achievements, identified defence weaknesses, and increased geopolitical risks.
This intelligence brief provides a structured assessment of the recent Israeli military strikes against Iran, based strictly on open-source reporting from local and international media outlets. The report aims to inform about the key developments, strategic implications, and potential courses of action stemming from this event.
This report offers an analytical overview of the official visit by the Italian delegation to Iran for the fifth round of bilateral political consultations, highlighting a desire to advance the bilateral partnership amid a complex geopolitical landscape.
This report analyses the recent tensions between the jihadist group Ajnad al-Kavkaz and Syria’s interim administration under Ahmed al-Sharaa. In a recent statement published online, Ajnad al-Kavkaz criticised targeted repression by the current Syrian authorities.
This report analyses the strategic implications of a significant potential breach within Israel’s intelligence domain, stemming from Iran’s claimed acquisition of highly sensitive Israeli military and nuclear-related documents.
This report analyses the Iranian corporation Shasta’s involvement and interests in the Makhachkala Sea Trade Port in the Republic of Dagestan. The report also outlines potential benefits and challenges tied to these efforts.
This report analyses the approval of Iran’s National Artificial Intelligence Plan by the Islamic Consultative Assembly on 18 May 2025, outlining the legislative, institutional, and geopolitical dimensions of the initiative. The report details internal debate over authority, finances, and bureaucracy because of delayed government action.
This report examines the resurgence of the Islamic State’s propaganda against Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa in the latest issue of al-Naba, a response to his attempts to engage with the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Israel. . The report details internal security threats, geopolitical shifts, and the dangers of jihadist insurgency.
The report examines the deepening of economic and strategic relations between Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, highlighted by the signing of nine bilateral agreements worth $5 billion. These include major investments in port infrastructure at Kuryk and Aktau, expansion of agri-food trade, and significant financial integration through the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC).
The recent regional developments, particularly surrounding President Donald Trump’s diplomatic tour of the Gulf, have deepened existing geopolitical fault lines in the Middle East. This report assesses the impact of these dynamics on the Islamic Republic of Iran.
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s official visit to Azerbaijan is a significant step towards restoring bilateral relations between Tehran and Baku after years of tensions. Several cooperation agreements signal a cautious but realignment of Iranian-Azerbaijani relations in a highly competitive geopolitical landscape.
This report examines Iran’s evolving strategic posture in Afghanistan following the erosion of its influence in Syria. The loss of key proxy leaders, Israel’s war in Gaza, and Syria’s collapse as a reliable geographical link force Tehran to seek alternative arenas. The aim of this report is to assess whether Afghanistan could emerge as Iran’s next strategic frontier following Syria’s decline.
The Islamic State has issued a new propaganda video denouncing the Syrian transitional leadership under Ahmed al-Sharaa, also known by his nom de guerre Abu Muhammad al-Jolani, to be apostate and illegitimate under Islamic law. This report analyse the video’s narrative and its impact on Syrian and regional security.
The Antalya Diplomacy Forum 2025 served as a strategic platform for Turkey to advance its ambitions as a revisionist middle power, pursuing influence through non-coercive means across regions of historical and ideological significance. This report highlighted that Turkey’s growing foreign policy assertiveness, fuelled by the Antalya Diplomacy Forum mixed to TIKA and Diyanet’ activities, may provoke backlash from regional and international actors.
For Iran, protecting its maritime borders and the safeguarding of its industrial, military, and oil infrastructure along the coastline constitute a geostrategic imperative. In light of increasing Israeli hostility and the push for direct confrontation between the Tel Aviv–Washington axis and the Islamic Republic of Iran, assessing Tehran’s deterrence strategy in the region has become critical.
This report examines Turkey’s multifaceted crisis triggered by the arrest of Istanbul Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, which has sparked the largest protests in a decade. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s administration is struggling with economic recession, widespread demonstrations, and increasing international scrutiny. The converging challenges threaten to undermine Erdogan’s 22-year grip on power.
The United States has significantly reinforced its military presence in Diego Garcia, issuing an ultimatum to Iran for a new nuclear deal. This move raises concerns about a potential military confrontation. The aim of this report is to assess whether this escalation is a strategic bluff to push Tehran into negotiations or a genuine prelude to military action.
This report examines Iran’s strategic advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), as President Pezeshkian has reaffirmed his administration’s commitment to advancing this sector. The Iranian government has committed $115 million to AI research and aims to position itself as a regional leader in this field.
The developments in the Middle East over the past year have been rapid and surprising. One of these surprises is the friendship between two former rivals. The Syrian transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, held a meeting with the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi.
This report assesses the security risks in Syria following recent sectarian violence in Latakia and Tartus, where factions linked to the transitional government reportedly targeted Alawite civilians. Local sources report hundreds killed in what they describe as mass executions.
This report examines Iran’s ongoing efforts to stabilise its economy in the face of severe currency fluctuations, inflation, and external economic pressures
Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 30 Issue 2 Author: Silvia Boltuc Executive Summary On February 4th, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Trump Administration’s decision to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) significantly affects the U.S. foreign policy, with immediate consequences for the Middle East and the post-Soviet space where local countries have relied on U.S. aid for stability and development.
Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has solidified its strategic position in Syria through a series of agreements with the new transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
This report assesses the key developments in Iran’s cryptocurrency policies, their implications for domestic and international actors, and the potential risks associated with these changes.
This report examines the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan, focusing on shared challenges and opportunities in the areas of water management, security, and migration. The ongoing dispute over the Helmand River’s water allocation represents a critical element of their relationship.
In January 2025, Iran and Tajikistan significantly deepened their bilateral ties by signing 22 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) during high-level meetings in Dushanbe. These agreements span multiple sectors, including trade, energy, infrastructure, cultural exchange, and security. This development represents a pivotal moment in their diplomatic relationship, marked by the restoration of trust and mutual interest after years of strained ties.
This report, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’ previous investigations, analyse Putin-Pezeshkian’s meeting and the impact of an increasing Russia-Iran’s cooperation in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
Belarus and Iran continue to solidify their bilateral relations, aiming for a durable and multifaceted partnership. Recent high-level engagements, including discussions in Minsk between Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko and Iranian Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade Seyed Mohammad Atabak, underscore the shared commitment to enhancing cooperation.
Iran has launched significant initiatives to enhance its oil refining capacity and optimise its global export strategy. This includes plans to modernise existing refineries, construct new facilities, and expand export destinations, with a focus on Asian, African, and Latin American markets.
SpecialEurasia had an exclusive conversation with Alexander Hoffmann, a Military Adviser from the Russian Federation. His analysis sheds light on the Kremlin’s military, diplomatic, and strategic recalibrations, offering a comprehensive perspective on Russia’s current and future approach in Syria and the broader Middle East.
This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.
Recent agreements to develop a Eurasian logistics hub in Iran’s southern ports underscore Bishkek’s need for maritime access, while Tehran positions itself as a regional economic hub to mitigate sanctions and increase its influence in Central Asia.
This report aims to analyse the evolution of terrorism in Iran, highlighting its peak in the 1980s with over 17,000 fatalities and its subsequent decline because of improved security measures, citizen cooperation, and post-war reconstruction efforts.
The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external manipulation.
This analysis examines how recent regional developments, particularly in security cooperation and economic partnerships, have reshaped Iran-Armenia’s relations amid growing regional challenges.
The Assad regime’s sudden collapse in Syria marks a profound and far-reaching geopolitical shift. The rapid Syrian opposition military gains, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly altered regional political and military conditions.
This intel brief, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’s previous monitoring reports, examines the regional and Syrian dynamics, integrating recent developments in Daraa and As-Suwayda to analyse the risks and strategic considerations.
This report assesses the implications of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Aleppo, the potential death of its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the broader geopolitical impact on regional stability and key state actors.
The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.
This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
This report provides an analytical review of the developing relationship between Iran and Japan, focusing on areas of mutual interest and the strategic and diplomatic challenges that may affect this cooperation. The analysis also highlights complexities arising from Japan’s alignment with the United States and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
The recent 13th meeting of the Ministers of Economy and Trade of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Bishkek underscored Turkey’s growing role in Central Asia. This report analyses how Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, with direct consequences for Moscow and Beijing.
The recent Azerbaijani-Saudi business forum underlined Baku’s attempt to diversify its economy and Riyadh’s desire to increasing its investment and economic presence in Azerbaijan and, therefore, in the South Caucasus region.
This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.
This report examines how the Islamic State in the latest issue of al-Naba has leveraged the ongoing conflict between Israel and regional Shiite forces, particularly Hezbollah, to assert its position within the Muslim world.
On Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel in response to the reported assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh. SpecialEurasia published this preliminary report based on local and international public available information (PAI) and previous analyses and provided possible future risk scenarios.
On the evening of September 27th, 2024, Israeli airstrike killed Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing Israel-Hezbollah conflict and highlighting the effectiveness of Israeli intelligence operations.
In this report, we present a few practical suggestions and OSINT tools to aid analysts in navigating difficulties related to their investigation about the Middle East and the Arab world, especially when they lack fluency in the region’s primary languages such as Arabic and Persian.
This report covers the 34th conference on Islamic banking held at the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in Tehran. The event gathered key financial leaders and government officials to discuss reforms in banking laws, the role of banks in supporting domestic production, and related economic issues.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s first official visit to Iraq resulted in the signing of 14 cooperation agreements across various sectors, reinforcing Tehran’s strategic and economic ties with Baghdad. This report highlights Iraq’s significance in Tehran’s regional strategy and its influence on Baghdad’s political, economic, and security future.
The Iraqi military, in collaboration with Kurdish security forces, recently executed a successful operation in Kirkuk, dismantling two Islamic State hideouts. This operation highlights the ongoing threat posed by the Islamic State despite its official defeat in 2017.
In this report, we will first discuss the current situation of the Northwest Syria, then we will introduce and provide brief information about the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which operates locally. In the end, we analyse the future of this region.
This report provides an analytical overview of Khorramshahr Port’s operations. It assesses the port’s recent performance, key developments, and future outlook.
According to Iranian and Palestinian sources, Israel allegedly assassinated Hamas’s political chief Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran. The attack occurred during Haniyeh’s attendance at the Iranian president’s inauguration. This incident may lead to significant regional escalation and impact on Middle Eastern geopolitics.
Cyprus, a historically and culturally rich island nation situated at the nexus of the Eastern Mediterranean, embodies a unique blend of European and Asian influences. This report delves into the complexities of Cyprus’s geopolitical scenario, examining the multifaceted affects of its division, international relations, and resource discoveries.
In an interview conducted on Thursday, July 7th, 2024, Giuliano Bifolchi, SpecialEurasia Research Manager, shared his insights with Emanuele Landi of Cusano News7 concerning the escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, focusing primarily on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the potential for increased hostilities in Lebanon.
The death of President Raisi and his delegation in a helicopter crash on May 19th, 2024, near the village of Uzi in East Azerbaijan, has significantly altered Iran’s political landscape. This tragic event precipitated snap presidential elections, originally scheduled for 2025, now set for June 28th, 2024
The Kurdish issue has long overshadowed the Middle East region and reflects the region’s complex ethnic conflicts. This report aims to examine the future prospects of Kurds in Northeastern Syria after a review of its geopolitics and demographics.
The Kurdistan Region has recently witnessed a significant surge in tourism, with over 1.5 million visitors arriving in the past three months. Ambitious plans unveiled by the Kurdistan Tourism Board aim to attract 20 million tourists annually by 2030, aligning with the government’s economic diversification agenda.
Amidst the palpable shortcomings of international diplomacy, the longstanding, albeit restrained, conflict between Israel and Iran has escalated, prompting apprehension within the global community regarding a broader conflagration throughout the Middle East.
The recent escalation between Iran and Israel, marked by Iran’s unprecedented direct attack on Israeli territory, presents a significant threat to regional stability in the Middle East and global security.The attack, comprising hundreds of missiles and drones, underscores the intensification of hostilities between these longstanding adversaries.
In this episode of Geopolitical Report Podcast, we discussed the local elections in Turkey on March 31st, 2024, that signalled a significant shift in the country’s political dynamics, marking the ruling AK Party’s most severe electoral setback under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s leadership.
The conflict between Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip could have represented one of the main reasons that pushed the Islamic State to communicate a new approach to the Middle Eastern dynamics characterised by the Islamic Resistance Movement’s attack against Israeli cities on October 7th, 2023, and the following Tel Aviv’s military operation in the Gaza Strip.