Category: Monitoring & Analysis
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Insights from Turkmenistan’s International Investment Forum and Exhibition
Between March 17th-19th, 2025, Turkmenistan is hosting a series of events in Ashgabat, including an exhibition and the “Investments in the Future of Turkmenistan” international forum, which highlight the country’s domestic economic trends and strategy.
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The Kurds’ Gamble for Survival in The New Syria
The developments in the Middle East over the past year have been rapid and surprising. One of these surprises is the friendship between two former rivals. The Syrian transitional president, Ahmed al-Sharaa, held a meeting with the commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), Mazloum Abdi.
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Intelligence Solutions and Geopolitics: Interview with Max Taylor
To explore the critical role of intelligence and geopolitics in contemporary security environments, SpecialEurasia met with Max Taylor, the Intelligence Manager at Intelligence Fusion.
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“Maritime Security Belt 2025” Naval Exercise: Developing Security Architecture Of The Indian Ocean
The seventh annual trilateral naval exercise “Maritime Security Belt 2025” started on March 10th, 2025, near Chabahar, Iran, encompassing anti-piracy, search-and-rescue, and naval combat exercises. The presence of Russia, China hosted by Iran in the strategically significant Gulf of Oman underscores their shared interest in countering Western influence and safeguarding themselves against an increasingly assertive Western bloc.
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Russia’s Strategic Diplomatic Shift: Alexander Darchiev is the New Russian Ambassador to the United States
The appointment of Alexander Darchiev as Russia’s ambassador to the United States marks a pivotal moment in Moscow’s diplomatic strategy. Amidst the current high tensions, his position and experience at the Russian Foreign Ministry suggest he may strive to improve, rather than damage, U.S.-Russia relations.
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Italy-Kazakhstan Rising Cooperation Highlights the Key Role of the First EU-Central Asia Summit
The recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Kazakhstan reinforces the developing relationship between Italy and Central Asia. His meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana follows a series of bilateral agreements signed in 2024, strengthening economic, energy, and diplomatic cooperation between the two nations.
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Armenia in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO): A Strategic Look
Armenia has frozen its participation in the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) since February 2024. The country has also ceased financial contributions and engagement in CSTO activities. This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of Armenia’s stance and the potential outcomes for regional stability.
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Syria: Violence Against the Alawites Underlines the Country’s Security and Sectarian Problems
This report assesses the security risks in Syria following recent sectarian violence in Latakia and Tartus, where factions linked to the transitional government reportedly targeted Alawite civilians. Local sources report hundreds killed in what they describe as mass executions.
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Kazakhstan and Turkey’s Growing Role in Afghanistan Through Agricultural and Humanitarian Cooperation
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
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Makhachkala Port and Beyond: How Dagestan Connects Iran and Russia in a Shifting Eurasian Landscape
The report outlines the strategic relationship between Dagestan and Iran, highlighting recent developments during a delegation’s visit aimed at enhancing trade and economic collaboration
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Robotics: Geopolitical Risks and Strategy
Integrating robotics into economic, military, and technological domains presents significant geopolitical risks and opportunities. Key nations, including the United States, China, and European states, are leveraging robotics to enhance industrial productivity, defence capabilities, and technological sovereignty.
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Assessment of Tajikistan’s Military Modernisation Strategy and its Geopolitical Implications
This report evaluates Tajikistan’s ongoing military modernisation efforts, spearheaded by President Emomali Rahmon, focusing on the integration of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the broader geopolitical and economic challenges associated with the country’s defence strategy.
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The Kra Canal: A Controversial Infrastructure for The Asia-Pacific
This report aims to investigate the historical evolution of the Kra Canal, its impact on the economies of South East Asian countries and then identify the geopolitical risks associated with this infrastructure project.
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Navigating Sanctions: Orenburg and Iran’s Economic Partnership
The report analyses recent economic and diplomatic activities involving the Orenburg Region of Russia and Iran, focusing on the deepening ties and joint cooperation opportunities. On February 21st-24th, 2025, a delegation representing Russia’s Oregon region, headed by Vice-Governor Ignat Petukhov, took part in the international EURASIA EXPO-2025 exhibition in Tehran.
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Uzbekistan’s Military Modernisation: AI, UAVs, and Robotic Systems
This report aims to analyse the recent developments regarding Uzbekistan’s military modernisation efforts, as outlined in the presidential address on February 21st, 2025. The country is considering how to incorporate new technologies, such as drones, artificial intelligence, and automated control systems, into its military forces.
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The Ukraine Conflict’s Impact on Russia-China Relations and Asia-Pacific Security Dynamics
This report analyses the influence of the Ukrainian conflict on Moscow and Beijing’s economic-military relations and their respective perspectives the geopolitical dynamics of the Asia-Pacific region.
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German Federal Elections 2025: CDU Success, SPD Debacle, and AfD Rising Power. Report from Baden-Württemberg
The report, based on local sources and meetings held during our visit to Baden-Württemberg, aims to analyse Germany’s political landscape after the elections , assessing the impact of the results, party dynamics, and potential implications for governance and stability.
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Ukraine conflict and Western Sanctions against Moscow: Analysis of Russian Efforts to Repatriate Frozen Assets in 2024
In 2024, Russia successfully recovered approximately 570 billion rubles ($6.3 billion) in assets previously frozen by Western nations because of the ongoing geopolitical conflict. Even with its successes, the substantial amount of Russia’s reserves frozen, primarily in the EU, remains a significant threat to its financial health.
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NATO, Ukraine, and the U.S. Strategy: The Geopolitical Implications of Trump’s Vision
This report examines the shifting dynamics of U.S. foreign policy towards Ukraine and NATO, particularly considering Donald Trump’s return to the White House. It analyses how the current U.S. Administration, characterised by reduced overseas commitments, fiscal conservatism, and scepticism towards allied burden-sharing, could reshape transatlantic security.
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Beyond the Ballot: Germany’s 2025 Federal Election and Its Far-Reaching Implications
SpecialEurasia, reporting directly from Germany, is closely monitoring developments on the ground to assess their implications for governance, economic policies, and foreign relations. The elections will determine the next Bundestag composition and government leadership, shaping Germany’s fiscal policies, security strategies, and diplomatic posture.
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Putin’s Defender of the Fatherland Day Address: Narrative Analysis and Strategic Implications
This report analyses President Vladimir Putin’s Defender of the Fatherland Day address (23 February 2025), which reinforces key narratives legitimising Russia’s military actions in Ukraine, strengthening domestic resolve, and projecting historical continuity.
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Analysis of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) in Central Asia: Perspectives and Challenges
This report aims at assessing the activities of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in Central Asia, its perspectives and challenges.
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Ethnic Alliances and Foreign Influence: The Power Struggle in Abkhazia’s Elections
This report aims to analyse the key outcomes of the election, the potential shifts in Abkhazia’s foreign and domestic policies, and the broader implications for regional stability. The results were as follows: Gunba 46.38%, Ardzinba 36.92%, Bartstits 4.04%, Arshba 7.53%, and Khurkhumal 0.91%. As no candidate obtained more than 50% of the vote, a second round will be held on March 1st, 2025.
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Security in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Pakistani Counterterrorism Operations Result in Casualties
Recent security operations in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, have resulted in significant casualties. Separate clashes in Dera Ismail Khan and North Waziristan killed four Pakistani soldiers and 15 militants.
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Beyond Sanctions: Iran’s Complex Quest for Economic Stabilisation
This report examines Iran’s ongoing efforts to stabilise its economy in the face of severe currency fluctuations, inflation, and external economic pressures
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Trump Administration and the U.S. – China Competition in Central Asia
In the last years, and especially now during Trump Administration, both the United States and the People’s Republic of China have competed in Central Asia because of the region’s strategic role in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
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From Abkhazia to Nagorno-Karabakh: Turkey’s Anti-Armenian Agenda in the Caucasus
This report examines Turkey’s increasing influence in Abkhazia, especially in the context of the upcoming presidential elections scheduled for February 2025. The analysis explores Ankara’s broader geopolitical ambitions in the South Caucasus, where its growing presence challenges Russia’s traditional dominance and exhibits a significant anti-Armenian stance.
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Security and Terrorism in the North Caucasus: Interview with Mark Youngman
SpecialEurasia met with Mark Youngman to discuss his recent report “Terrorism and counterterrorism in the North Caucasus: 2024 trends” considering his vast experience as an open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst and independent researcher.
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Renewed Maximum Pressure: The US Returns to Confrontation with Iran
Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 30 Issue 2 Author: Silvia Boltuc Executive Summary On February 4th, 2025, President Donald J. Trump signed a National Security Presidential Memorandum (NSPM) restoring maximum pressure on the government of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
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Impact of Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan Trilateral Cooperation on the Post-Soviet Space
This report examines the outcomes of the second trilateral meeting Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan held in Ankara on January 29th, 2025. The meeting focused on advancing cooperation in trade, investment, and transport, with particular attention to the development of the Middle Corridor as a vital trade route between Asia and Europe.
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Will USAID Shutdown Impact U.S. Soft Power in the Middle East and the Post-Soviet Space?
Trump Administration’s decision to dismantle the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) significantly affects the U.S. foreign policy, with immediate consequences for the Middle East and the post-Soviet space where local countries have relied on U.S. aid for stability and development.
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Syria: Turkey’s Growing Influence and Military Cooperation with Transitional Government
Following the collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime, Turkey has solidified its strategic position in Syria through a series of agreements with the new transitional government led by Ahmed al-Sharaa.
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Tajikistan: Prison Riot and the Rising Islamic State Threats
Tajik security forces suppressed an attempted prison break in Vahdat’s Colony No. 3/2, where Islamic State supporters staged a coordinated attack on guards. Official reports indicate that security forces killed three insurgents and detained the rest, though images suggest a higher casualty count.
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Crypto Under Control: The Geopolitical Drivers of Iran’s New Regulation
This report assesses the key developments in Iran’s cryptocurrency policies, their implications for domestic and international actors, and the potential risks associated with these changes.
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Russian Military and Strategic Expansion in Libya Through the Maaten al-Sarra Airbase
Russia is expanding its military footprint in Libya, focusing on the Maaten Al Sarra airbase near the Chadian and Sudanese borders. This action shows a strategic reorientation by Moscow toward the Sahel, resulting from challenges encountered in Syria.
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Artificial Intelligence: Strategic and Geopolitical Consequences After the Rise of DeepSeek
Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is reshaping global power dynamics, triggering a digital arms race among leading nations. The United States, European Union, and China’s regulatory frameworks differ significantly, reflecting unique strategic objectives and underlying ideologies.
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Water, Security, and Cooperation: Iran and Afghanistan Address the Helmand River Dispute
This report examines the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan, focusing on shared challenges and opportunities in the areas of water management, security, and migration. The ongoing dispute over the Helmand River’s water allocation represents a critical element of their relationship.
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Abkhazia’s Upcoming Presidential Elections: Interview with Kan Taniya
SpecialEurasia spoke with Kan Taniya, adviser at the Embassy of the Republic of Abkhazia in Russia, to analyse the internal political situation, the candidates, and the regional outlook.
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L’Abcasia verso le elezioni presidenzialid del febbraio 2025: intervista a Kan Taniya
In vista delle elezioni presidenziali del febbraio 2025, SpecialEurasia ha intervistato Kan Taniya, consigliere presso l’Ambasciata della Repubblica di Abcasia in Russia, per analizzare la situazione politica interna, i candidati e le prospettive regionali della repubblica abcasa.
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India’s Balanced Foreign Policy in The Multipolar Era
This report analyses India’s developing geopolitical positioning, the affects of recent sanctions on Indian entities linked to Russian transactions, and the strategic implications for decision-makers.
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South Korea: Analysis of the Recent Political and Institutional Crisis
On December 3rd, 2024, South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol declared martial law, citing threats to democratic institutions. This unprecedented action caused a major political and institutional crisis, leading to Yoon’s impeachment and arrest. The instability has raised concerns among key global actors, including the United States, the European Union, China, and Japan.
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Belarus Presidential Elections Confirmed Lukashenko’s Leadership Among Western Criticism
The January 26th, 2025, presidential election in Belarus resulted in Alexander Lukashenko extending his 31-year rule. Western governments have widely criticised the electoral process, citing the absence of free and fair conditions. The election took place against the backdrop of heightened political repression, lack of opposition candidates, and Belarus’ deepening alignment with Russia.
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Afghanistan: the Killing of a Chinese Worker Might Compromise the Sino-Taliban Relations
This report evaluates the geopolitical and security implications of the recent killing of a Chinese worker in Afghanistan, focusing specifically on the Sino-Taliban relationship. The analysis considers the role of militant groups operating across the border and forecasts potential outcomes that could affect China’s strategic objectives in Central Asia and its broader regional influence.
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Iran and Tajikistan Forged a Strategic Alliance with 22 New Agreements
In January 2025, Iran and Tajikistan significantly deepened their bilateral ties by signing 22 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) during high-level meetings in Dushanbe. These agreements span multiple sectors, including trade, energy, infrastructure, cultural exchange, and security. This development represents a pivotal moment in their diplomatic relationship, marked by the restoration of trust and mutual interest after years of strained ties.
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China’s Increasing Interests in the Wakhan Corridor
This report outlines recent developments regarding the Wakhan Corridor, specifically focusing on the increasing Chinese presence in the region. The visit of three Chinese military intelligence officers to the Wakhan Corridor is a significant event showing Beijing’s increasing strategic focus on the region.
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15 Years of the North Caucasus Federal District: An Analysis of Achievements and Challenges
This report aims at underlining the North Caucasus Federal District’s positive trends and the local challenges which might undermine regional stability and the Kremlin’s efforts to improve the socioeconomic conditions.
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Geopolitics and Risk Assessment of the Sirjan Special Economic Zone in Iran
The Sirjan Special Economic Zone (SEZ) is a strategic hub for industrial, commercial, and transit activities in Iran. Established in the 1990s, it offers significant legal and economic advantages aimed at attracting domestic and foreign investment. Located near key transportation infrastructure, it provides a logistical nexus for trade between the Middle East, Central Asia, and South Asia.
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Uzbekistan: Economic Growth in 2024 Amidst Local and Regional Challenges
This report examines Uzbekistan’s economic performance in 2024, focusing on trade dynamics, sectoral developments, and key geopolitical considerations. It highlights the country’s efforts to modernise its economy under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s leadership, supported by structural reforms and strategic international partnerships.
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Putin-Pashinyan’s Phone Conversation Confirmed Russia’s Interest in Armenia and the Caucasus
The recent phone conversation between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan reviewed Armenia’s presidency of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) and outline future cooperation within the bloc.
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Putin-Pezeshkian’s Meeting in Moscow: Analysis of Russia-Iran’s Strategic Partnership
This report, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’ previous investigations, analyse Putin-Pezeshkian’s meeting and the impact of an increasing Russia-Iran’s cooperation in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
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Iran and Belarus Discussed Expanding Their Relations
Belarus and Iran continue to solidify their bilateral relations, aiming for a durable and multifaceted partnership. Recent high-level engagements, including discussions in Minsk between Belarusian Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko and Iranian Minister of Industry, Mines, and Trade Seyed Mohammad Atabak, underscore the shared commitment to enhancing cooperation.
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Assessment of Armenia’s Foreign Policy Towards U.S., EU and Russia’s Regional Presence
This report assesses Yerevan’s foreign policy toward Washington and Brussels, and Moscow’s potential responses, considering Russia’s diminishing influence in the Caucasian republic after approximately thirty years. In addition, it analyses potential threats to Armenia arising from the expansion of its ties with the West.
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How Kazakhstan’s Interest in Bulgaria’s Energy Market Might Affect Russia’s Local Influence
This report examines how Kazakhstan’s strategic move in Bulgaria’s energy market affects the regional geopolitical balance, considering Russia’s local influence and political developments.
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Indonesia: Economic Growth and Investment Opportunities
By examining Indonesia’s geo-economic value and development policies, the report based on international, local sources, and previous SpecialEurasia’s monitoring activities, aims to outline prospects for further growth of the national economy.
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Sayfiddin Tajibayev’s Role in the Syrian Defence Apparatus: Repercussions for Tajikistan and Central Asia
Sayfiddin Tajibayev’s appointment to a senior position in the Syrian Ministry of Defence highlights a serious security risk to Tajikistan and Central Asia. This development could catalyse the movement of more extremists from Central Asia to Syria, facilitating the establishment of new foreign fighter networks and training centres.
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Iranian Oil Refining Capacity and Pricing Strategies in 2025
Iran has launched significant initiatives to enhance its oil refining capacity and optimise its global export strategy. This includes plans to modernise existing refineries, construct new facilities, and expand export destinations, with a focus on Asian, African, and Latin American markets.
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Mongolia: SWOT Analysis
This SWOT analysis, based on local and international sources and previous SpecialEurasia’s reports, should assist policymakers and stakeholders in assessing Mongolia’s strategic position and identifying the country’s strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats.
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Myanmar’s Armed Groups and Criminal Enterprises: The Case of Shan State
This report, based on open sources and publicly available information (PAI), aims at analysing the geopolitical risk and criminal scenarios in Myanmar, particularly focusing on the Shan State.
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Assessing Russia’s Strategic Realignment in Syria and the Middle East: Insights from Alexander Hoffmann
SpecialEurasia had an exclusive conversation with Alexander Hoffmann, a Military Adviser from the Russian Federation. His analysis sheds light on the Kremlin’s military, diplomatic, and strategic recalibrations, offering a comprehensive perspective on Russia’s current and future approach in Syria and the broader Middle East.
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Threat Assessment of Post-Assad Syria’s Impact on Central Asia
This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.
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Assessing Tehran-Bishkek’s Trade Via Iran’s Southern Ports
Recent agreements to develop a Eurasian logistics hub in Iran’s southern ports underscore Bishkek’s need for maritime access, while Tehran positions itself as a regional economic hub to mitigate sanctions and increase its influence in Central Asia.
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Analysis of Over Four Decades of Terrorist Attacks in Iran and Their Impact on the Iranian Society
This report aims to analyse the evolution of terrorism in Iran, highlighting its peak in the 1980s with over 17,000 fatalities and its subsequent decline because of improved security measures, citizen cooperation, and post-war reconstruction efforts.
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Islamic State Narrative on Recent Events in Syria: Analysis of al-Naba Issue 473
The Islamic State has utilised the recent collapse of the Assad regime and the rise of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) to intensify its ideological campaign. Through its latest issue of al-Naba (issue 473), released in recent days, the group has disseminated a narrative portraying these events as betrayals of Islamic principles and evidence of external manipulation.
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Iran-Armenia Relations: Strategic Partnership Amid Regional Transformations
This analysis examines how recent regional developments, particularly in security cooperation and economic partnerships, have reshaped Iran-Armenia’s relations amid growing regional challenges.
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Syria: Assad’s Fall, Iran and Russia’s “Strategic and Military” Defeat, and HTS Victory
The Assad regime’s sudden collapse in Syria marks a profound and far-reaching geopolitical shift. The rapid Syrian opposition military gains, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly altered regional political and military conditions.
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Intel Brief: Syrian Conflict and the Escalation around Homs, Daraa, and As-Suwayda
This intel brief, based on local and international sources and SpecialEurasia’s previous monitoring reports, examines the regional and Syrian dynamics, integrating recent developments in Daraa and As-Suwayda to analyse the risks and strategic considerations.
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Analysis: Russia-Kyrgyzstan Relations and Strategic Partnership
This report explores Russia’s influence in Kyrgyzstan, concentrating on economic, military, and socio-cultural ties while acknowledging the competition from regional players like China and Turkey.
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Syrian Rebels’ Offensive Against Aleppo and the Potential Death of HTS Leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani
This report assesses the implications of the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) offensive in Aleppo, the potential death of its leader Abu Mohammad al-Julani, and the broader geopolitical impact on regional stability and key state actors.
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China’s Role and Influence in Myanmar’s Democratic Process
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 49 Issue 1 Author: Antonio Graceffo For over seventy years, the people of Burma have fought relentlessly against successive military juntas that have ruled the country with an iron fist, striving for democratic change.
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Risk Assessment Report: Georgia – Political Unrest and EU Integration Impasse
This report analyses the ongoing political unrest in Georgia following the suspension of its EU membership negotiations and the contested parliamentary elections of October 27th, 2024.
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India SWOT Analysis: Geopolitics and Economy
This report aims to assess India’s geopolitical and economic environment by analysing its internal capabilities, vulnerabilities, external opportunities, and threats. This evaluation is crucial in understanding India’s potential trajectory in becoming a global economic and geopolitical leader.
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Report Writing for Intelligence
Effective intelligence reporting needs precise and unambiguous presentations of facts, analysis, and recommendations. Analysts must ensure reports focus on the needs of decision-makers, tailor their content and structure them for rapid understanding. This analysis examines the key principles for crafting actionable and relevant intelligence reports.
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Geopolitics and Strategy of China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC)
The China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (CMREC) initiative, set for deployment in the latter half of the 2020s, represents a trilateral ambition to fortify regional economic integration and elevate transnational trade efficiency across Eurasia.
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Chinese Expansion in Central Asia Through Kyrgyzstan’s Logistic Hubs and Railways
The construction of the At-Bashy Trade and Logistics Centre and the proposed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway underscores Beijing’s aim to enhance trade connectivity, bypass traditional routes through Russia, and consolidate its influence in Central Asia.
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Russian Arctic Development and National Security Strategy: Analysing Current Trajectory and Implications
Russia continues to pursue an assertive development agenda in the Arctic, emphasising the region’s economic potential and strategic significance for national security. This strategy includes expanding infrastructure, fostering private investment, and enhancing transport routes, specifically the Northern Sea Route (NSR).
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Intel Report: Abkhazia’s Domestic Political Crisis and Regional Implications
This report investigates recent protests in Abkhazia that reflect a deepening crisis in the republic (linked with Russian interests in the Caucasus), primarily driven by opposition factions demanding President Aslan Bzhania’s resignation and a full political transition.
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International Forum “REBUS 2024” in Tatarstan and its Implications for Sino-Russian Economic Cooperation
The following report investigates the role of the “REBUS 2024” forum in Tatarstan as a catalyst for expanding Sino-Russian economic ties and regional cooperation.
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Iran-Afghanistan Relations: Emerging Dynamics and Challenges
The dynamics of Iran-Afghanistan relations have shifted significantly since the Taliban regained power in Afghanistan in 2021. Although Iran has refrained from formally recognising the Taliban government, it has engaged pragmatically, establishing cooperative frameworks for trade, transit, and other bilateral engagements.
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Kuwait and Tajikistan: A Developing Partnership in Security and Economic Affairs
This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
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2024 U.S. Presidential Election: Possible Implications in Eurasia of Donald Trump’s Return
Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 U.S. presidential election, marked by a decisive lead over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris with over 71 million votes and 277 electoral votes, introduces a new phase in U.S. foreign policy which might affect Eurasia’s geopolitical dynamics significantly.
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Russian Federation: Role of Key Regional Leaders in Kremlin’s Foreign Relations
This report assesses the diplomatic roles of key Russian regional leaders in advancing Moscow’s foreign policy objectives, particularly in their engagements with the Arab-Muslim world and Far East, and to evaluate the strategic implications of their increasing involvement in international relations.
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Iran-Japan Relations: Potential Cooperation Amidst Regional Challenges
This report provides an analytical review of the developing relationship between Iran and Japan, focusing on areas of mutual interest and the strategic and diplomatic challenges that may affect this cooperation. The analysis also highlights complexities arising from Japan’s alignment with the United States and ongoing tensions in the Middle East.
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North Korea’s Troops Deployment to Russia: Analysis of Regional Security Risks and the Ukraine Conflict
North Korea’s choice to send troops to support Russia in Ukraine is a significant change in global dynamics that could affect security in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.
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Uzbekistan’s 2024 Parliamentary Elections: Context, Reforms, and Geopolitical Implications
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan signify a major step in the country’s political development, highlighting domestic stability and Tashkent’s stable governance. The elections demonstrated a stable participation rate of over 71.5% and marked the conclusion of a new phase of constitutional reforms, backed by the Central Election Commission (CEC).
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Incident Report: UAV Attack on the Russian University of Special Forces in Gudermes, Chechnya
On October 29th, 2024, a UAV attack targeted the Russian University of Special Forces (RUS) in Gudermes, Chechnya, resulting in a fire on the roof of an unoccupied building.
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Analysis of Georgia’s Recent Parliamentary Elections and Geopolitical Implications
The Georgian Dream party has secured a parliamentary majority with approximately 54% of the vote in Georgia’s recent elections. This outcome, disputed by pro-European opposition leaders, has raised concerns over electoral integrity and the future of Georgia’s EU candidacy.
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BRICS Summit: Strategic Implications for the Caspian Sea Region
The BRICS Summit in Kazan, Russia, marked a pivotal moment in the bloc’s expansion and its focus on fostering economic cooperation, regional security, and enhanced multilateral relations. The Caspian Sea region, shared by Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Iran, and Turkmenistan, plays a strategic role in BRICS’ geopolitical and economic ambitions.
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CSTO “Rubezh-2024” Military Exercise in Tajikistan
This report investigates the “Rubezh-2024” military exercise occurred in Tajikistan, focusing on its implications for Moscowʼs regional military and foreign policies in Central Asia. The exercise facilitates the transfer of combat experience from Russian military personnel, drawn from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
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The Organisation of Turkic States and Ankara’s Geopolitical Ambitions in Central Asia
The recent 13th meeting of the Ministers of Economy and Trade of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Bishkek underscored Turkey’s growing role in Central Asia. This report analyses how Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, with direct consequences for Moscow and Beijing.
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Islamic Banking in Russia: A SWOT Analysis
This report evaluates the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats (SWOT) surrounding Russia’s newly launched Islamic banking pilot programme. Started in September 2023, the programme seeks to assess the feasibility of Islamic financial services across Tatarstan, Bashkortostan, Chechnya, and Dagestan.
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Kalmykia: A New Russia Center for the Development of the Caspian Sea’s Regional Cooperation
This report seeks to outline the historical and socioeconomic features of Kalmykia and examine its potential contribution to Moscow’s logistics strategy in the Caspian Sea region.
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Tajikistan: Emomali Rahmon visited the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO)
President Emomali Rahmon’s recent visit to Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) marks a continued effort by the Tajik government to strengthen socio-economic development and enhance security in the region. Rahmon visited and inaugurated several infrastructure projects, emphasising development ahead.
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Ukraine: Security Forces Arrested an Islamic State Militant
The arrest of an Islamic State militant in Ukraine has raised concern on the country’s potential role as a transit territory towards Europe for terrorist groups and jihadist fighters.
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Iran’s Expanding Trade with the Eurasian Economic Union
This report primarily aims to evaluate the growth of trade between Iran and the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), particularly focusing on non-oil exports.
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Azerbaijan: Increasing Saudi Investments Might Boost Economic Diversification
The recent Azerbaijani-Saudi business forum underlined Baku’s attempt to diversify its economy and Riyadh’s desire to increasing its investment and economic presence in Azerbaijan and, therefore, in the South Caucasus region.
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First Anniversary of Hamas Attack Against Israel on October 7th, 2023: An Intelligence Report
This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.
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Islamic State’s al-Naba Latest Issues: Analysing Jihadist Propaganda on the Israel – Shiite Forces’ Military Confrontation
This report examines how the Islamic State in the latest issue of al-Naba has leveraged the ongoing conflict between Israel and regional Shiite forces, particularly Hezbollah, to assert its position within the Muslim world.
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Iran Attacked Israel: A Preliminary Risk Assessment Report
On Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel in response to the reported assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh. SpecialEurasia published this preliminary report based on local and international public available information (PAI) and previous analyses and provided possible future risk scenarios.
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South Caucasus: Iran Opened a Trade Centre in Armenia
This report assesses the opening of the Iran Trade Centre in Yerevan, Armenia, on October 1st, 2024. The centre represents Tehran’s largest permanent trade facility abroad, aimed at facilitating economic engagement with the Armenian and Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) markets.
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North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities
This report investigates the upcoming forum “North Caucasus: New Geostrategic Opportunities” scheduled on 4-5 October 2024. The forum aims to examine the strategic potential of the NorthCaucasus in Russia’s global strategy, focusing on infrastructure, regional growth, and human capital.
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