Category: Caucasus

The South Caucasus and the Middle East have long been at the epicentre of geopolitical, ideological and ethnic tensions. While the Israel-Iran hybrid war is experiencing a new momentum, ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan might open a second front in which both Tel Aviv and Tehran might be involved.

Increased Russian investments in Adygea confirm the Kremlin’s strategy to implement the North Caucasus’ socioeconomic development and transform the region into a logistics hub supporting the diversification of Russian exports.

SpecialEurasia discussed with Alexandr Sharov, General Director of the transport company LLC Neftekhimtrans, Group of companies Rusiranexpo, the current geopolitical significance of the INSTC and possible future developments and impact in the Eurasian strategic chessboard.

La presenza di foreign fighters e battaglioni di volontari in Ucraina accresce il rischio geopolitico dello scacchiere strategico eurasiatico essendo questi attori non statali impegnati attualmente nel combattere le forze armate russe e al contempo collegati direttamente o indirettamente con membri della diaspora o della militanza armata-jihadista che negli ultimi anni hanno operato nello spazio post-sovietico e in Medio Oriente.

The Kremlin’s project to evaluate the opportunity to implement Islamic banking in Russia might support the national economy, attract foreign investors from the Arab-Muslim world, and counter the consequences of Western sanctions imposed against Moscow due to the Ukraine conflict.

In 2023, military escalations, domestic political turmoil, and economic crises might increase Iran and the Caucasus’ geopolitical risk and threaten regional security, whose consequences might broadly destabilise the Eurasian strategic chessboard.

Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 26 Issue 4 – Le manifestazioni ‘ambientaliste’ dei cittadini azeri e il blocco della via di collegamento Goris-Stepanakert che ha isolato il Nagorno-Karabakh celano una strategia di Baku volta a controllare le risorse del territorio, in special modo quelle minerarie.

Azerbaijan’s transport and gas supply blockade of the Nagorno-Karabakh/Artsakh might cause a regional humanitarian crisis and evolve into a military escalation capable of destabilising the South Caucasus.

The commercial and political partnership between Dagestan and Azerbaijan might support the increasing relations between Moscow and Baku and implement the Russian foreign policy in the South Caucasus and the Caspian Sea region.

The Russian State Duma’s official visit to Abkhazia confirms the Kremlin’s presence in the South Caucasus and the Abkhaz territory’s strategic role in Russia’s foreign policy. Moscow-Sukhum improving relations stress the Russian desire to confirm its influence in the Caucasus in a challenging time characterised by the Ukraine conflict and the confrontation with the West.

Stavropol authorities’ desire to open trade offices abroad might underline Russia’s strategic economic goal in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard, especially in Azerbaijan, Iran, China, and the United Arab Emirates.

Considering the South Caucasus’ current geopolitical scenario, we discussed with Vahagn Khachaturyan, President of the Republic of Armenia, the country’s prospects in the changing world and possible regional developments to assess local stability and security and evaluate Armenia’s potentialities.

The establishment of an IT Park in Ingushetia named after Adam Khamkhoev, killed in May 2022 in Ukraine, underlined local and central authorities’ desire to promote economic development and support Kremlin’s narrative related to heroism and national unity.

After almost three decades on the sidelines of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict negotiation process, the European Union has now stepped in, positioning itself as a mediator in the Armenian-Azerbaijani conciliation process.

Iran and Dagestan have increased their trade exchange through the Makhachkala Commercial Port, where the Kremlin has invested financial funds to transform this infrastructure into a logistic hub in the Caspian Sea, which might undermine the role of the close port of Baku in Azerbaijan.

SpecialEurasia met with Sergey Ghazaryan, Permanent Representative of the Republic of Artsakh in Armenia, with whom we discussed how recent regional geopolitical dynamics in the Caucasus had influenced the current situation in Nagorno-Karabakh.

SpecialEurasia met with Paruyr Hovhannisyan, Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Armenia, with whom we discussed Yerevan’s regional and foreign policy and Armenia’s strategy to protect its sovereignty and citizens.

SpecialEurasia met with Hripsime Grigorianand Artur Hovhannisyan, members of the National Assembly of the Republic of Armenia, to investigate the Government’s domestic politics and assess the national situation.

During SpecialEurasia’s official mission to Yerevan, our team met with Armenian female entrepreneurs who founded the brand Udivila, which promotes Armenian culture and attempts to carve out a slide of a market where Armenia has not yet been present.

On October 21st, 2022, SpecialEurasia began its special mission in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia, to analyse the current situation in the country, assess socioeconomic trends and investigate possible future developments.

The Stavropol territory welcomed representatives from the Middle East and Africa in the event “North Caucasus in the Changing World”, whose goal was to create a link between the region and potential foreign investors and markets.

Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has played a decisive and influential role in assisting the Russian military operations on the ground with his kadyrovtsy and Chechen troops and supporting the Kremlin’s ideological confrontation with the West.

Recent arrests of Russian citizens in the Stavropol territory linked with the Islamic State confirmed that jihadist propaganda penetrated the Russian territory by exploiting local problems and influencing the Muslim communities disseminated in the country, especially in the North Caucasus, where the Kremlin has contrasted local militancy and religious extremism.

The Embassy of the United Arab Emirates in the Russian Federation organised an event in the city of Makhachkala to promote the national culture and create a link with Dagestan, a strategic North Caucasian republic located on the Caspian Sea.

In October 2022, representatives of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia will attend the second Caspian Economic Forum hosted in Moscow to discuss future energy cooperation and projects.

Kremlin’s promotion of Dagestan culture and society in Sochi underlines Moscow’s goal to contrast Kavkazophobia and, simultaneously, improve the link between ethnic Russians and local ethnic Dagestani groups since this North Caucasian republic has a strategic role in the Caspian Sea region.

Georgian authorities denied that Tbilisi would hold a referendum to open a “second front” against the Russian Federation, destabilising the South Caucasus and threatening the Georgian economy, which is heavily dependent on the Russian market.