SpecialEurasia decided to stop its online activities during the month of August 2022 to organise next season’s projects and propose an updated website focused on geopolitical analysis, risk assessment, security monitoring and forecasting.
Taking a break from online activities on our official website does not mean that the SpecialEurasia team will abandon our projects and activities. We will continue to monitor and analyse the situation in Eurasia and the Mediterranean region, covering issues related to international relations, geopolitics, terrorism, and security. At the same time, we are discussing further collaboration and training activities in Open Source Intelligence (OSINT), geopolitical forecasting and terrorism analysis with our network of contacts and possible future partners.
Among the different topics, during the summer holidays, we will pay special attention to:
1) China – United States confrontation in Asia-Pacific, especially after Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan and Beijing’s military operation around the island (Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan: will the United States reinforce the Pivot to Asia policy?; )
2) Afghanistan’s security and domestic situation since the U.S. troops’ withdrawal from the country in August 2021 when the Taliban took power. Indeed, the recent killing of Ayman al-Zawahiri, the leader of al-Qaeda, demonstrated that the Afghan territory had become a “safe haven” for different terrorist groups, particularly the Islamic State Khurasan (ISKP), which has disseminated its propaganda targeting Afghan people and neighbouring Central Asian republics U.S. drone strike killed al-Qaeda’s leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan; Summary of the Webinar “Afghanistan: geopolitical interests, humanitarian crisis and security”).
3) The ongoing conflict in Ukraine and Russia – West confrontation. Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict and the consequent Western sanctions against the Russian Federation, the geopolitical scenario in Eurasia has drastically changed due to the linked energy and economic crisis. The military operations have also influenced the cybersecurity sector, considering the rise of hacker attacks and cyber operations registered in the last months (Ukraine conflict’s impact on cyber landscape and potential threats).
3) Geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia affected by local protests, the Ukraine conflict, the Russia – Western confrontation, the Taliban’s rise in Afghanistan, and Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative. Since the beginning of 2021, Central Asia has experienced local disappointment as happened in the Kazakhstan political crisis in January 2022 (Geopolitical consequences of the political turmoil in Kazakhstan), the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region (GBAO) ‘s demonstrations in Tajikistan in May 2022 (Political tensions and security threats in Tajikistan), and the last manifestations in the autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan in July 2022 (Mass riots and protests in the Uzbek autonomous Republic of Karakalpakstan). Furthermore, the region has witnessed increased terrorism threats and jihadist propaganda. Different terrorist groups, especially the Islamic State Khurasan (ISKP), aim to exploit local protests to destabilise Central Asian republics (Tehrik-e Taliban Tajikistan and terrorist threat in Tajikistan and Central Asia; Central Asian republics between socio-economic projects, popular protests, terrorist threats and the Afghan dilemma).
4) Social security and delicate strategic balances in the Middle East. Recent events in Iraq and Palestine have demonstrated that the region still needs stabilisation while the terrorist threat from al-Qaeda, the Islamic State, and Hayat Tahrir al-Shams remains present. The economic crisis in Lebanon, the political crisis in Iraq, and the civil wars in Yemen and Syria are still unresolved issues in the region, which has noticed significant Arab Gulf monarchies’ diplomatic activity in a new geopolitical scenario characterised by the confrontation between the United States, the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China (Russia and Saudi Arabia discussed the situation in the global oil market; SpecialEurasia discussed with Dr Waref Kumayha Saudi – Chinese relations and the upcoming Arab – China summit).
Although our online activities on the official website will take a break, SpecialEurasia will not “abandon” its followers, readers, and partners. We will continue to update our Twitter Account @SpecialEurasia.
Giving you an appointment in September with our new projects, activities, and training courses, SpecialEurasia reminds you that it is possible to contact us at the following LINK.