This report examines Iran’s evolving strategic posture in Afghanistan following the erosion of its influence in Syria. The loss of key proxy leaders, Israel’s war in Gaza, and Syria’s collapse as a reliable geographical link force Tehran to seek alternative arenas. The aim of this report is to assess whether Afghanistan could emerge as Iran’s next strategic frontier following Syria’s decline.
The eventuality that Iran has supported the creation of a Shiite militant organisation in Afghanistan has caused diplomatic tensions among Tehran and Kabul and highlighted how fragile the country’s situation might be after the NATO troops withdrawal.