The Eurasian Development Bank’s first macroeconomic study on the Persian Gulf states highlights a sharp expansion in trade and investment ties between the Gulf Arab monarchies and Central Asian republics over the 2020–2024 period.
Kazakhstan announced its intention to join the Abraham Accords during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s visit in Washington D.C. to attend the “Central Asia + United States” Summit.
This report aims to analyse the intersection between the Uzbek and the Tajiks, which we can consider among the most influential ethnic jihadist groups in Central Asia.
This report examines the proposed Central Asian Gas Ring, assessing its potential to stabilise regional energy supply, attract investment, and alter the geopolitical and economic balance among Central Asian states and external actors.
This report provides an analytical overview of the upcoming official visit of the President of Finland, Alexander Stubb, to the Republic of Uzbekistan, scheduled for October 30–31, 2025.
The visit of President Ilham Aliyev to Astana on October 20-21, 2025, strengthened the strategic partnership between Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan.
Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov arrived in Rome on October 24, 2025, for a state visit that involves a meeting with Italian leaders, attendance at a business forum, and the opening of an archaeological exhibition at the Musei Capitolini.
Libera San Marino will host a public event titled “Central Asia: New Prospects for Business and Development in an Evolving Global Market” at Palazzo Graziani, San Marino, on 28 October 2025.
This report provides an analytical overview of the upcoming signing of the Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (EPCA) between Uzbekistan and the European Union, scheduled for October 24, 2025, in Brussels.
The EU Cross-Regional Connectivity Agenda has increased its commitment to the Black Sea, South Caucasus, and Central Asia with the purpose of improving trade, energy, and digital infrastructures and boosting security and resilience.
The Dushanbe meetings, which occurred from October 8th to 10th, 2025, led to a collaborative set of political, security, and economic commitments within the Russia–Central Asia and CIS frameworks, resulting in 19 signed documents and the creation of a “CIS Plus” model.
On Wednesday, 15 October 2025, SpecialEurasia held a webinar to present the book Geopolitics of Central Asia, a collective volume derived from the organisation’s long-term research project on the region.
This report provides an assessment of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) military exercise “Rubezh-2025”, held in Kyrgyzstan from 17 to 20 September 2025.
This report examines Kazakhstan’s changing internal and energy policies following President Tokayev’s State of the Nation Address on September 8, 2025.
This report assesses the current scale, constraints and strategic implications of commerce between India and the Central Asian states, based on the recent findings published by the Eurasian Development Bank and India Exim Bank.
This report analyses the geopolitical dynamics and economic significance of the meeting, which gathered senior officials from Central Asian states and the U.S. Department of State convened in Dushanbe under the C5+1 format.
This report examines the geopolitical consequences of the armed clash on August 24, 2025, which involved Tajikistan border forces and Taliban fighters near the Panj River.
This report assesses the strategic and economic implications of the first meeting of Central Asian special representatives on Afghanistan, held in Uzbekistan on 26 August 2025.
This report assesses the recent efforts by Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan to strengthen economic, infrastructural, and energy cooperation following their March 2025 border agreement.
This report investigates Kyrgyzstan’s recent engagement with Afghanistan through targeted economic cooperation and joint projects in the energy and transport fields.
This report provides an assessment and overview of India’s foreign relations with the Central Asian Republics (CARs) based on an established new kind of platform as well as special relations in security, climate change, ICT, and trans-terror.
Pakistan’s hosting of a high-level regional defence chiefs conference brought together senior military officials from the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.
The Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) launched a multilateral defence industry cooperation platform that represents Ankara’s strategic initiative to expand its economic and geopolitical influence in Central Asia and the South Caucasus.
Central Asia faces a growing natural gas shortage because of the increasing population and insufficient infrastructure.
The Central Asia Economic Forum (CAEF), held in Dushanbe in July 2025, confirmed Russia’s desire to preserve and expand its regional influence through business and cultural diplomacy.
On 23 July 2025, Belarus and Tajikistan held the first session of their intergovernmental commission on military-technical cooperation in Minsk.
Uzbekistan concluded a week-long joint military exercise with the Russian Federation, named Hamkorlik-2025, from 15 to 21 July 2025 in Surxondaryo Region.
The Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan (UAP) Railway Project Agreement significantly advances regional infrastructure integration.
This report highlights the significant increase in narcotics trafficking and related law enforcement operations across Central Asia, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.
This report examines Saudi Arabia’s recent $20 million investment in Tajikistan’s education infrastructure, which is part of a larger development program totalling $325 million.
This report evaluates Tajikistan’s response to the economic pressures stemming from Russia’s targeted import restrictions and Dushanbe’s concurrent implementation of a revised fiscal agreement with Moscow.
This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.
This report evaluates the developing strategic relationship between Beijing and the Central Asian republics in the context of the Second China–Central Asia Summit in June 2025 considering also recent trends in Eurasia such as the Israeli-Iranian conflict.
This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.
This report examines the Kyrgyzstan’s economic development following the adoption of its National Development Programme until 2030. Bishkek has introduced ambitious growth targets, including a doubling of GDP and deep structural reforms across industry, logistics, agriculture, tourism, and green energy.
This report assesses the strategic implications, current developments, and potential risks associated with the Trans-Afghan Railway, also referred to as the “Kabul Corridor”. The report concludes with forecast scenarios concerning regional stability, trade potential, and geopolitical alignment.
This report assesses the strategic implications of the sharp rise in cybercrime in Uzbekistan between 2019 and 2024. The report details how this trend threatens Uzbekistan’s internal security, economic stability, and broader modernisation goals.
This report assesses Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s official visit to Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan in May 2025 and its participation in the first “Central Asia + Italy” summit as well as imperative and constraints of Rome’s engagement in the region.
This report provides an analytical overview of the official visit by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni to Uzbekistan, which marks a significant advancement in the strategic partnership between the two nations.
By the end of May, Giorgia Meloni, the Italian Prime Minister, will visit Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. The visit, postponed from April because of the death of Pope Francis, marks a formal shift in Italy’s approach to Central Asia.
SpecialEurasia met with the Ambassador of the Republic of Kazakhstan to Italy, H.E. Yerbolat Sembayev, to acquire deeper insight into this Central Asian republic following the recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Astana and the first EU–Central Asia summit held in early April 2025.
The report examines the deepening of economic and strategic relations between Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates, highlighted by the signing of nine bilateral agreements worth $5 billion. These include major investments in port infrastructure at Kuryk and Aktau, expansion of agri-food trade, and significant financial integration through the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC).
Kazakhstan recorded a foreign direct investment (FDI) inflow of $15.7 billion in 2024, marking an 88% increase over 2023 and the highest figure in its post-Soviet history. The inflow consolidates its position as the primary investment destination in Central and Northern Asia.
This report evaluates recent Central Asian fighters’ jihadist mobilisation efforts in Syria and the dissemination of related propaganda targeting Russian Muslims. Drawing on open-source information, including Telegram content in Russian, the report outlines the security risks posed to Syria, Russia, and Central Asia.
This report analyses the sixth meeting of the Foreign Ministers of China and the Central Asian republics, held in Almaty, and situates it within the broader geopolitical contest unfolding across Eurasia. China’s aim to solidify its regional power through planned dialogue, economic ties, and infrastructure projects demonstrates a long-term strategy.
This report provides a focused analysis of the developing security landscape in Central Asia, examining the increasing role of intelligence agencies and special forces in fostering regional cooperation amid shifting geopolitical realities. This report aims to evaluate the significance of recent security collaboration initiatives, analyse the root causes of defence reforms, and project how future events may influence regional stability.
This report assesses the geopolitical risks tied to Tajikistan’s position in Western Critical Raw Material (CRM) supply chains, especially considering the antimony market, drawing on trade figures, publicly available investment data, and regional and international media coverage.
This report analyses the Asian Development Bank’s (ADB) latest economic outlook concerning the Central Asian region, highlighting an expected deceleration in GDP growth of over 2025–2026. The ADB’s projections underscore persistent geopolitical and economic risks that could compound regional vulnerabilities in the medium term.
This report examines recent CSTO and Dushanbe’s efforts to bolster security on the Tajik-Afghan border, as the situation in northern Afghanistan worsens. Regional concerns about rising terrorism and illicit activity in Afghanistan’s border provinces pushed CSTO to start the first phase of its longstanding program.
This report assesses Kazakhstan’s recent decision to allocate 120 billion tenge (approximately USD 265 million) for the development of its defence-industrial base, and its efforts to attract foreign investment from key international partners. This report assesses also Astana’s defence posture, investment, and regional.
This report examines the growing strategic significance of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in current economic and political changes in Central Asia, with an emphasis on the initiatives presented at the April 2025 conferences in Tashkent and diplomatic forum in Antalya.
The eighth ministerial meeting between Russia and the five Central Asian states, held in Almaty on April 11, 2025, highlights Moscow’s ongoing efforts to consolidate strategic influence across its southern periphery. This report wants to assess the status of Russia-Central Asia relations and Moscow’s strategy to exploit multilateralism and security cooperation to influence Central Asian republics and counter the recent first EU-Central Asia summit.
The memorandum signed on 7 April 2025 between Uzbekistan and Germany establishes a structured labour migration framework focused on vocational training and legal mobility pathways for Uzbek workers in key sectors of the German economy. This report analyses the memorandum’s strategic implications for EU-Central Asia relations and Uzbekistan’s foreign policy diversification.
Kazakhstan and the United Kingdom are intensifying their collaboration in infrastructure development, aiming to modernize Astana’s extensive energy, transport, water, and digital systems. This partnership leverages the UK’s engineering expertise and financial acumen to support Kazakhstan’s ambitious National Infrastructure Plan through 2029.
This report analyses the EU-Central Asia summit’s significance for Brussels’ strategy, highlighting Central Asia’s geopolitical rise and the European commitment to sustainable development and multilateralism.
Italy’s TRAMITE Group will launch a tomato processing operation in Kazakhstan, capitalising on the country’s agricultural potential and government incentives. The $100 million project aligns with Astana’s strategy to boost agricultural exports and attract foreign investment.
The recent border agreement between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan represents a historic achievement in Central Asian diplomacy. The Khujand Declaration, along with the agreed-upon border crossing, symbolises regional cooperation and stability.
This report examines the significance of Russian cultural diplomacy in Uzbekistan and Central Asia, and Rossotrudnichestvo’s contribution to the Kremlin’s regional aims. The report also analyses the “cultural geopolitical game” in the region involving regional and international actors.
The recent EU-Central Asia ministerial meeting in Ashgabat and the upcoming EU-Central Asia Summit in Samarkand highlight Brussels’ strategic engagement with the region. Discussions focused on regional stability, economic cooperation, and the enforcement of sanctions against Russia.
The Fergana Valley, a strategically significant region in Central Asia, has long been a focal point of geopolitical tensions and economic development challenges. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, unresolved border disputes, ethnic tensions, terrorism, and economic fragility have shaped the valley.
The successful implementation of the CASA-1000 energy transmission project represents a critical milestone for regional cooperation in Central Asia. This initiative aims to facilitate the export of surplus hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, enhancing economic growth, regional stability, and international investment opportunities.
This report examines the emerging partnership between France and Uzbekistan, focusing on its implications for economic growth, regional stability, and cultural exchange. With both countries working together, the report focuses on key cooperative efforts in trade, infrastructure, and education.
Between March 17th-19th, 2025, Turkmenistan is hosting a series of events in Ashgabat, including an exhibition and the “Investments in the Future of Turkmenistan” international forum, which highlight the country’s domestic economic trends and strategy.
The recent visit of Italian President Sergio Mattarella to Kazakhstan reinforces the developing relationship between Italy and Central Asia. His meeting with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana follows a series of bilateral agreements signed in 2024, strengthening economic, energy, and diplomatic cooperation between the two nations.
Kazakhstan and Turkey are increasingly active in Afghanistan, leveraging humanitarian, agricultural, and diplomatic support to secure regional influence. Astana’s participation in initiatives like the Islamic Organisation for Food Security (IOFS), coupled with Ankara’s expansion through TIKA, is reshaping the region’s geopolitical landscape.
This report evaluates Tajikistan’s ongoing military modernisation efforts, spearheaded by President Emomali Rahmon, focusing on the integration of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the broader geopolitical and economic challenges associated with the country’s defence strategy.
This report aims to analyse the recent developments regarding Uzbekistan’s military modernisation efforts, as outlined in the presidential address on February 21st, 2025. The country is considering how to incorporate new technologies, such as drones, artificial intelligence, and automated control systems, into its military forces.
This report aims at assessing the activities of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) in Central Asia, its perspectives and challenges.
In the last years, and especially now during Trump Administration, both the United States and the People’s Republic of China have competed in Central Asia because of the region’s strategic role in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
This report examines the outcomes of the second trilateral meeting Turkey-Azerbaijan-Uzbekistan held in Ankara on January 29th, 2025. The meeting focused on advancing cooperation in trade, investment, and transport, with particular attention to the development of the Middle Corridor as a vital trade route between Asia and Europe.
Tajik security forces suppressed an attempted prison break in Vahdat’s Colony No. 3/2, where Islamic State supporters staged a coordinated attack on guards. Official reports indicate that security forces killed three insurgents and detained the rest, though images suggest a higher casualty count.
In January 2025, Iran and Tajikistan significantly deepened their bilateral ties by signing 22 memorandums of understanding (MoUs) during high-level meetings in Dushanbe. These agreements span multiple sectors, including trade, energy, infrastructure, cultural exchange, and security. This development represents a pivotal moment in their diplomatic relationship, marked by the restoration of trust and mutual interest after years of strained ties.
This report examines Uzbekistan’s economic performance in 2024, focusing on trade dynamics, sectoral developments, and key geopolitical considerations. It highlights the country’s efforts to modernise its economy under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s leadership, supported by structural reforms and strategic international partnerships.
This report examines how Kazakhstan’s strategic move in Bulgaria’s energy market affects the regional geopolitical balance, considering Russia’s local influence and political developments.
Sayfiddin Tajibayev’s appointment to a senior position in the Syrian Ministry of Defence highlights a serious security risk to Tajikistan and Central Asia. This development could catalyse the movement of more extremists from Central Asia to Syria, facilitating the establishment of new foreign fighter networks and training centres.
This SWOT analysis, based on local and international sources and previous SpecialEurasia’s reports, should assist policymakers and stakeholders in assessing Mongolia’s strategic position and identifying the country’s strengths, weakness, opportunities, and threats.
This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.
Recent agreements to develop a Eurasian logistics hub in Iran’s southern ports underscore Bishkek’s need for maritime access, while Tehran positions itself as a regional economic hub to mitigate sanctions and increase its influence in Central Asia.
This report explores Russia’s influence in Kyrgyzstan, concentrating on economic, military, and socio-cultural ties while acknowledging the competition from regional players like China and Turkey.
The construction of the At-Bashy Trade and Logistics Centre and the proposed China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan (CKU) railway underscores Beijing’s aim to enhance trade connectivity, bypass traditional routes through Russia, and consolidate its influence in Central Asia.
This report analyses the recent diplomatic developments and economic cooperation initiatives between Tajikistan and Kuwait following President Emomali Rahmon’s official visit to Kuwait from November 3rd-5th, 2024.
The 2024 parliamentary elections in Uzbekistan signify a major step in the country’s political development, highlighting domestic stability and Tashkent’s stable governance. The elections demonstrated a stable participation rate of over 71.5% and marked the conclusion of a new phase of constitutional reforms, backed by the Central Election Commission (CEC).
This report investigates the “Rubezh-2024” military exercise occurred in Tajikistan, focusing on its implications for Moscowʼs regional military and foreign policies in Central Asia. The exercise facilitates the transfer of combat experience from Russian military personnel, drawn from the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
The recent 13th meeting of the Ministers of Economy and Trade of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in Bishkek underscored Turkey’s growing role in Central Asia. This report analyses how Ankara’s ambitions are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of Central Asia, with direct consequences for Moscow and Beijing.
President Emomali Rahmon’s recent visit to Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO) marks a continued effort by the Tajik government to strengthen socio-economic development and enhance security in the region. Rahmon visited and inaugurated several infrastructure projects, emphasising development ahead.
This report analyses the outcomes of the “Central Asia + Germany” summit held on September 17th, 2024, in Astana, focusing on the strategic economic, infrastructure, and security agreements reached between Central Asian countries and Germany.
The report analyses recent economic and security developments between Tajikistan and Pakistan, highlighting the implications of their expanding bilateral relations.
Kazakhstan’s 2024 military modernisation initiatives significantly enhance its defence capabilities, reflecting concerns over internal stability and regional security. The country’s efforts include advanced procurements and comprehensive upgrades, which could alter Central Asia’s military balance.
This report covers the recent counter-terrorism operations in Kazakhstan, resulting in the arrest of five individuals involved in terrorism-related activities. The operations underscore the ongoing threat within the country and the effectiveness of the government’s response.
This report evaluates the state of water security and energy cooperation in Central Asia. It underscores the importance of these issues within the region’s foreign policy agendas, given the growing environmental challenges and socio-economic demands.
This report assesses security developments and counter-terrorism strategy in Tajikistan, focusing on the first half of 2024. It highlights the security implications of rising extremist activities compounded by internal challenges such as political repression, ethnic tensions, and economic instability.
The potential for economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and African countries is significant, with key sectors such as agriculture, mining, and industrial goods offering substantial opportunities for growth in bilateral trade. This report examines Tashkent’s key African partners and highlights the investment prospects arising from the economic collaboration between Uzbekistan and Africa.
Tajikistan presents a moderate risk profile for investors because of its political stability under authoritarian rule, weak economic development, and significant security challenges. Although the country has substantial natural resources and strategic ties with Russia and China, pervasive corruption, poor infrastructure, and proximity to conflict zones undermine its investment attractiveness.
In response to the US strategy of political-military containment in the Asia-Pacific region, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has recognised the strategic importance of the China-Mongolia-Russia Economic Corridor (a component of the Belt and Road Initiative) in enhancing the energy-industrial infrastructure and expanding the Chinese economic and cultural influence in Central Asia.
Kyrgyzstan faced a significant terrorism risk stemming from the activities of radical groups linked to international terrorist organisations, such as the Islamic State. Recent counter-terrorism operation near Bishkek highlighted both the active recruitment efforts targeting Kyrgyz youth and the nation’s challenges in addressing these threats effectively.
Russia is gearing up to host the SPIEF 2024, a pivotal annual event that unites Russia’s business partners and provides a platform for bilateral agreements while addressing current global issues. Kazakhstan will participate in the event, aiming to strengthen its established partnerships with Moscow and Beijing and to forge new connections with the growing economies of Asia.
In the latest Geopolitical Report Podcast, we explored the recent high-level meeting between Italian and Central Asian republics’ foreign affairs ministers held in Rome.
This report explores the historical background influencing the current discussions between Kazakhstan and Japan. It then examines the potential economic benefits that could arise from this dialogue and explores the exciting possibilities that lie ahead for both nations.