Geopolitical Forecasting: Learning from Waren Buffett’s Method

Warren Buffet
Warren Buffett at the 2015 SelectUSA Investment Summit (Credits: USA International Trade Administration, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 37 Issue 1
Author: Guido Keller & Giuliano Bifolchi

Our relentless pursuit of refining our geopolitical analysis framework is a testament to our commitment to excellence in the field. At SpecialEurasia, a robust approach to enhancing our analytical capabilities involves the meticulous digestion of pertinent literature on geopolitics, forecasting, and intelligence analysis as well as finance and economics as proven our recent investigation on Warren Buffet’s method.

In addition, we actively participate in knowledge-sharing by organising focused meetings with colleagues and industry experts, creating an atmosphere that encourages the exchange of best practices and rigorous debate of ideas.

For instance, in the past, we explored Marko Papic’s method, delineated in his book ‘Geopolitical Alpha’, which integrates geopolitical analysis into market forecasting. Indeed, some of Papic’s teachings have not only captured our attention but have become an integral part of our analytical toolkit.

Delving into the realms of Finance and Economics, we probe the pragmatic utility of Warren Buffett’s methods applied to geopolitics. This strategic pivot reflects our commitment to incorporating diverse perspectives and methodologies into our analytical arsenal, ensuring a nuanced and comprehensive understanding of geopolitical dynamics.

Warren Buffett’s Method of Forecasting

The world knows Warren Buffet, one of the most successful investors in the world, for his long-term value investing approach. His method of forecasting involves a combination of fundamental analysis, understanding the intrinsic value of a company, and assessing its competitive advantage within the industry.

Buffett emphasises the long-term prospects of a company as opposed to short-term market fluctuations. The method he uses for forecasting can be summarised as follows:

  • Value Investing and Fundamental Analysis:Buffett’s forecasting approach is firmly grounded in the principles of value investing. He seeks companies that are undervalued relative to their intrinsic worth. This involves analysing financial statements, cash flow, earnings, and other key metrics to determine the true value of a business.
  • Competitive Advantage:Buffett emphasises the importance of identifying companies with a strong competitive advantage or an economic moat. Companies possessing a durable competitive advantage are more inclined to sustain profitability and market position in the long run. When evaluating a company’s competitive advantage, Buffett takes into account its brand strength, cost leadership, or technological edge.
  • Long-Term Perspective:Unlike numerous investors who focus on short-term market trends, Buffett’s forecasting method revolves around long-term prospects. His objective is to invest in companies possessing sustainable business models and long-lasting competitive advantages capable of withstanding market volatility and economic cycles.
  • Management Quality:Buffett places significant emphasis on the quality of a company’s management team. He seeks leaders who possess trustworthiness and competency, and who prioritise shareholder interests while demonstrating a proven track record of sound business decision-making.
  • Margin of Safety:Another key aspect of Buffett’s forecasting method is the concept of margin of safety. This involves investing in companies when their stock prices are significantly below their intrinsic value, providing a cushion against potential losses.

The Synergy between Buffet’s Method and SpecialEurasia’s Geopolitical Approach

Geopolitical analysis relies on a commitment to understanding the obvious and embracing patience. This is a common idea that SpecialEurasia shares with Warren Buffet, even though we apply it in geopolitics than in investments.

Buffett’s central principle is a focus on the apparent, the realities that are glaringly evident. In the geopolitical arena, this translates to a meticulous examination of a country’s core drivers. Russia’s dependence on oil sales, China’s uneven distribution of economic benefits, Central Asian republics’ necessity for a regional cooperation are some examples that we can cite in this context.

In a world where even the smallest advancements are frequently amplified, we, similar to Buffett, advocate for valuing the broader, long-term perspective.

Similar to Buffett’s discernment of companies with enduring value, geopolitical forecasting seeks defining factors that will shape a country’s trajectory over the years and decades.

Buffett’s insistence on a company’s “moat” finds resonance in our analysis of nations. We seek countries with inherent strengths and attributes that discourage challenges or ensure the ability to overcome them. The quest for sustainable advantages parallels Buffett’s pursuit of companies producing goods with enduring demand.

In line with Buffett’s emphasis on management, our geopolitical analysis extends beyond individual leaders to encompass a nation’s deep structure, culture, and strategic resilience. Even as leaders transition, the enduring qualities of a well-governed nation remain intact, similar to Buffett’s emphasis on a company’s capacity to outlast individual CEOs.

Buffett’s strategy of maintaining a lean staff is in line with SpecialEurasia’s approach to geopolitical forecasting, which emphasises a focus on the critical factors that shape a country’s future. Therefore, at SpecialEurasia, we prefer a panoramic view that discerns broad realities showing where a country will be in the years to come.


In a world enamoured by complex methodologies, our shared philosophy with Buffett supports the power of simplicity. Geopolitical forecasting, like investing, is best conducted in contemplative environments, devoid of noise and distraction. It involves a collaborative process, thinking, and conversing with trusted colleagues, allowing the obvious to manifest itself.

The analogy between financial investing and geopolitical forecasting is not about accumulating wealth but about revelling in the unfolding reality of the world and deriving satisfaction from anticipating events before they transpire.

In conclusion, the synergy between Buffett’s forecasting principles and geopolitical analysis underscores the enduring value of simplicity, patience, and a focus on the clear in navigating complex landscapes. Both disciplines share a commitment to understanding the essential elements that drive long-term success, be it in the realm of finance or global affairs.

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