Tag: geopolitical risk

  • Geopolitics’ Strategic Value in Finance and Investment Portfolio Management

    Geopolitics — the examination of how geography, power, and political interests influence global outcomes — is now essential for financial decision-making.

  • Israel-Iran Escalation Risk: Military, Political, and Information Warfare Dimensions

    This report evaluates the likelihood and drivers of a renewed Israeli strike against Iran. It examines Tel Aviv’s strategic objectives, Tehran’s vulnerabilities and deterrence efforts, the evolving political environment, and the interplay between military procurement and information warfare.

  • What is Geopolitical Risk and Why it Matters

    This report examines the definition, scope, and relevance of geopolitical risk, identifies its key categories, and reviews recent global cases that illustrate its implications. It also provides a set of indicators to monitor to detect early warning signals.

  • Thailand-Cambodia Military Escalation: Intelligence Briefing

    Thailand’s use of airstrikes against Cambodian military positions marks the most serious military escalation along the border in over a decade.

  • Ukraine Recovery Plan: Strategic Risk Assessment and Investment Outlook

    This report analyses Ukraine’s investment climate through a SWOT framework and offers strategic recommendations for stakeholders seeking to assess risk exposure and economic potential.

  • Southern Syria: Bedouin-Druze Clashes Increased the Country’s Geopolitical Risk

    Renewed fighting between Druze and Bedouin groups in Suwayda province has caused a major humanitarian and economic crisis in Southern Syria.

  • Central Asia’s Emerging Problem with Narcotics Trafficking

    This report highlights the significant increase in narcotics trafficking and related law enforcement operations across Central Asia, particularly in Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan.

  • Geopolitical Risk June 2025: Caucasus, Central Asia, Middle East

    This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.

  • Israel-Iran Conflict: Central Asia’s Reactions and Concerns for Regional Security

    This report analyses the Israeli-Iranian conflict’s potential impact on Central Asian nations and their reactions. Central Asian governments express concern and advocate for de-escalation, while public opinion largely rejects military support for Iran.

  • Israel’s Massive Attack Against Iran: Intelligence Brief

    This intelligence brief provides a structured assessment of the recent Israeli military strikes against Iran, based strictly on open-source reporting from local and international media outlets. The report aims to inform about the key developments, strategic implications, and potential courses of action stemming from this event.

  • Friends or Foes: Russia-China Relations and the FSB Intel Leaked Document

    This report outlines the contents of a leaked eight-page planning document by the FSB’s Department of Counterintelligence Operations (DKRO), which describes China as a significant intelligence threat to the Russian Federation.

  • Fergana Valley: Stability, Development, and Strategic Interests

    The Fergana Valley, a strategically significant region in Central Asia, has long been a focal point of geopolitical tensions and economic development challenges. Spanning Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, unresolved border disputes, ethnic tensions, terrorism, and economic fragility have shaped the valley.

  • CASA-1000 and Central Asian Regional Stability

    The successful implementation of the CASA-1000 energy transmission project represents a critical milestone for regional cooperation in Central Asia. This initiative aims to facilitate the export of surplus hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, enhancing economic growth, regional stability, and international investment opportunities.

  • United States: Political Polarisation and Its Impact on Economic Stability

    This report assesses the growing political polarisation in the United States and its impact on economic stability. Utilising sources from publicly available government reports, economic indicators, and expert analyses, it examines key political trends and their implications for economic growth, investment confidence, and market stability.

  • Navigating a Sea of Mistrust: The Negative Informational Climate of Armenia and Azerbaijan Negotiations

    This report examines Azerbaijan’s recent escalation of information dissemination strategies, particularly through the Ministry of Defence’s daily reports of alleged Armenian ceasefire violations. Historically, similar narratives have been employed to shape public perception and create a justification framework for strategic manoeuvres.

  • SpecialEurasia 2024: Our Year in Review

    In 2024, SpecialEurasia broadened its activities, organised international visits, participated in global events, and published numerous reports. Focused on delivering actionable intelligence for decision-making, we refined our methodology by investing in modern technologies and adapting to geopolitical developments.

  • Threat Assessment of Post-Assad Syria’s Impact on Central Asia

    This report synthesises international and local data, together with previous SpecialEurasia assessments, to analyse the consequences of Assad’s downfall in Syria and the potential contribution of Central Asian foreign fighters.

  • Syria: Assad’s Fall, Iran and Russia’s “Strategic and Military” Defeat, and HTS Victory

    The Assad regime’s sudden collapse in Syria marks a profound and far-reaching geopolitical shift. The rapid Syrian opposition military gains, spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have significantly altered regional political and military conditions.

  • North Korea’s Troops Deployment to Russia: Analysis of Regional Security Risks and the Ukraine Conflict

    North Korea’s choice to send troops to support Russia in Ukraine is a significant change in global dynamics that could affect security in Eastern Europe and the Asia-Pacific region.

  • First Anniversary of Hamas Attack Against Israel on October 7th, 2023: An Intelligence Report

    This report analyses at the situation one year after the Hamas attacks on Israel, which occurred on October 7th, 2023. The report highlights the continuous risks in the area, such as the role of Hezbollah, Iran’s engagement, and the emergence of terrorist organisations like the Islamic State.

  • Iran Attacked Israel: A Preliminary Risk Assessment Report

    On Tuesday, October 1st, 2024, Iran launched approximately 180 missiles at Israel in response to the reported assassination of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas’ political leader Ismail Haniyeh. SpecialEurasia published this preliminary report based on local and international public available information (PAI) and previous analyses and provided possible future risk scenarios.

  • Afghanistan: Taliban Celebrated 3 Years of Their Rule Amid Security Problems

    This report evaluates the implications of Taliban’s third anniversary celebrations amid persistent security threats from groups like the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) and assesses the Taliban’s ability to maintain stability in Afghanistan.

  • Christian Tratzi’s Interview with Cusano News7 About Terrorism Growing Threat in Europe.

    In a recent interview with Cusano News 7, Christian Tratzi, a Terrorism Analyst at SpecialEurasia, engaged in a comprehensive discussion with anchor-woman Giulia Cavola about the developing threat of terrorism on the international stage, with special focus on the European continent.

  • Myanmar War: China’s Support for Ethnic Armed Groups

    China’s involvement in Myanmar (Burma), particularly in supporting ethnic military alliances, is a complex and evolving issue. China has strategic interests in Myanmar, including economic investments, infrastructure projects under the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), and a desire to maintain stability in its neighboring country and trade partner.

  • Ep. 25 – Report on Terrorist Attacks in Dagestan

    The latest episode of the SpecialEurasia Geopolitical Report Podcast delves into the recent coordinated terrorist attacks that took place in the cities of Makhachkala and Derbent in Dagestan.

  • Georgia: Geopolitical Risk Report

    The adoption of the ‘foreign agents law’ by the government, the unresolved territorial disputes, particularly in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, a contentious relationship with Russia, and the challenging economic conditions have amplified Georgia’s geopolitical risk in recent months.

  • The Interplay Between Artificial Intelligence and Geopolitics

    The global landscape is undergoing rapid transformation fuelled by the ascent of Artificial Intelligence (AI), a phenomenon that bears profound implications for international relations and the distribution of power among nations.

  • Enhancing Regional Security: Russia-Tajikistan Joint Anti-Terrorism Exercises

    Russia and Tajikistan are currently engaged in joint counterterrorism exercises, which have become even more crucial because of the rise in terrorist activities in Afghanistan. This partnership between Moscow and Dushanbe highlights their commitment to enhancing military and defence cooperation.

  • Financial Markets and the Geopolitical Risk

    This report scrutinises the multifaceted impact of geopolitical risk on financial markets, offering invaluable insights to guide stakeholders through this persistent challenge.

  • Kazakhstan: A PESTEL Analysis

    This PESTEL analysis delves into the key factors influencing Kazakhstan’s environment, providing insights for decision-makers seeking to navigate the complexities and capitalise on opportunities in the region.

  • Terrorist Attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow: A Preliminary Intelligence Report

    The terrorist attack at Crocus City Hall in Moscow serves as a stark reminder of the persistent threat of terrorism within Russia. The indiscriminate violence unleashed by unknown assailants resulted in 40 fatalities and over 100 injuries, highlighting the vulnerability of civilian gatherings and cultural institutions to extremist acts.

  • Increasing Geopolitical Risk in the Middle East

    The United States is escalating its military involvement in the Middle East to counter the resurgence of the Islamic State. This includes a substantial deployment in Syria and Iraq. Concurrently, the Red Sea crisis involving Houthis’ attacks poses a multifaceted challenge, impacting regional stability and exacerbating geopolitical tensions. The situation is further complicated by the ongoing conflicts in Gaza and the broader dynamics of the Middle East.

  • Beyond Trade Routes: Geopolitical Chess in the Red Sea

    The Red Sea, historically a vital trade route, is now a focal point for complex geopolitical dynamics driven by major global powers and regional actors. China’s Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) has spurred significant infrastructure investments and military presence, amplifying competition with the United States and other stakeholders

  • Geopolitical Risk in the Red Sea

    The US and British militaries conducted a significant retaliatory strike against Houthi forces in Yemen, targeting over 60 sites. President Biden emphasised that these strikes were in response to Houthi attacks on international maritime vessels, posing threats to personnel, civilian mariners, and trade and increasing the regional geopolitical risk.

  • Tajikistan’s 2023 in Review Between Government’s Optimism and the Country’s Challenges

    Although Tajik President Emomali Rahmon announced to the nation a prosperous future, Tajikistan still faces essential problems related to domestic stability, the threat coming from neighbouring Afghanistan, the government’s management of Gorno-Badakhshan, and the economic performance.

  • Central Asia: What to Watch in 2024

    Our primary aim is to facilitate informed decision-making and proactively anticipate potential challenges in Central Asia. We achieve this by thoroughly assessing and closely monitoring the region’s significant geopolitical dynamics. Through this report, we present a nuanced perspective on the factors that demand continuous scrutiny, fostering a proactive approach to navigate the complex geopolitical currents shaping Central Asia in the coming year.

  • Understanding the Global Geopolitical Risk and Current Crisis

    The magazine Opinio Juris – Law and Political Review has dedicated its fourth volume titled “Archi di Crisi” to current crisis, ‘frozen’ and/or forgotten conflicts, and potential future wars by focusing on the most relevant cases since, as mentioned before, the number of current conflicts and crisis areas in the world is huge.

  • The Islamic State Threatened the Shi’a Community in the Islamic Republic of Iran

    The recent arrest of individuals implicated in orchestrating a series of violent assaults within the borders of the Islamic Republic of Iran underscores the profound and persistent terrorist menace facing the national Shi’a community.

  • Unveiling the Complexities: Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan, and Afghanistan’s Turbulent Landscape

    The assassination of Qari Mohammad Dawezi in Afghanistan, a field commander affiliated with the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar, a faction withing the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), highlights the intensifying factional infighting within the organisation and the significant role that the Afghan territory has for jihadist militants.

  • Geopolitical Risk: SpecialEurasia’s Systematic Approach to Understanding and Mitigating Future Challenges

    In today’s interconnected world, where nations are increasingly intertwined through political, economic, and social ties, it becomes crucial to comprehend and assess the concept of geopolitical risk.

  • Kyrgyzstan security forces eliminated a terrorist near Bishkek: why does it matter?

    The Kyrgyz special operation to arrest an armed group in Dmitrievka, which resulted in the elimination of a suspected terrorist who fought in Syria, highlighted that Kyrgyzstan is not immune to terrorism or jihadist propaganda.

  • CIA recruiting video for dissatisfied Russians: Intelligence and strategic communications during the Ukraine conflict

    The CIA video in the Russian language published on YouTube, which invites dissatisfied Russians to provide information to the U.S. Intelligence agency, confirms Washington’s strategy to create a network of assets inside the Russian Federation and put pressure on the Kremlin.

  • Afghanistan: the Taliban killed seven Islamic State militants

    The Taliban continue their effort to contrast and eliminate the Islamic State’s threat, confirming the Islamic Emirate necessity to stabilise the country to attract foreign investors and international consensus.

  • The Importance and Benefits of Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) in Geopolitical Assessments

    Open Source Intelligence (OSINT) is a crucial aspect of modern-day geopolitics because it provides timely and accurate information to inform decision-making processes. By leveraging various open sources such as social media, news outlets, and other publicly available data, intelligence agencies can detect emerging trends and patterns in all aspects of life, including political, economic, social and technological domains.

  • Will Growing tension between Azerbaijan and Iran destabilise the Southern Caucasus?

    The recent ‘diplomatic crisis’ between Iran and Azerbaijan, which has involved the Iranian diplomatic staff in Baku, underlined the potential political and military escalation between the countries, whose consequences might hugely influence the security in the South Caucasus.

  • Iran: a geopolitical scenario of the new escalation with Israel and Azerbaijan

    The South Caucasus and the Middle East have long been at the epicentre of geopolitical, ideological and ethnic tensions. While the Israel-Iran hybrid war is experiencing a new momentum, ongoing tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan might open a second front in which both Tel Aviv and Tehran might be involved.

  • Monitoring & Risk Analysis Map

    At SpecialEurasia, we consider fundamental our Monitoring & Risk Analysis map that underlines the Geopolitical Risk Level for each country linked to our monitoring articles, reports and special projects.

  • Analisi e valutazione del rischio geopolitico in Asia centrale

    Obiettivo di questo paper è quello di valutare il rischio geopolitico dell’Asia centrale prendendo in esame le dinamiche geopolitiche regionali e le problematiche che potrebbero comportare destabilizzazione e mancanza di sicurezza.

  • Geopolitical risk of Iran and the Caucasus: what to watch in 2023

    In 2023, military escalations, domestic political turmoil, and economic crises might increase Iran and the Caucasus’ geopolitical risk and threaten regional security, whose consequences might broadly destabilise the Eurasian strategic chessboard.

  • Geopolitical risk in Central Asia and AfPak: what to watch in 2023

    In 2023, foreign actors’ interests, terrorism, authoritarianism, and economic slowdown might threaten Central Asia and AfPak’s security and stability and increase regional geopolitical risk.

  • Established the Turkic ‘Turan Battalion’ in Ukraine to fight against Russian armed forces

    The creation of the Turan Battalion confirmed that the Ukraine conflict had become the perfect battleground for international fighters and contractors united by the desire to fight against the Russian Federation and promote their ideologies and goals.

  • Might Kazakhstan face internal separatism and ethnic problems?

    Recent propaganda on Telegram spread by a ‘foreign agent’ who promoted separatism in Kazakhstan highlighted possible future problems that the Central Asian republic might face since different ethnic minorities live in the country.

  • The number of terrorists and extremists has increased in Tajikistan

    In Tajikistan, local security forces and authorities emphasised the rising threat of terrorism and extremism in the country in the last six months, confirming that terrorist organisations such as the Islamic State have been able to exploit local disappointment and the unresolved issues that in Gorno-Badakhshan.

  • Online book presentation “Conflict in Ukraine: geopolitical risk, jihadist propaganda and threat for Europe”: a summary

    On June 24th, 2022, SpecialEurasia, in cooperation with Criminalità e Giustizia, CISINT, Cesintel, IPA, ADR 360 and CCMN, organised an online webinar to present the book “Conflict in Ukraine: geopolitical risk, jihadist propaganda and threat for Europe”.

  • Ukraine conflict: cyber warfare and geopolitical risk

    As long as Russian and Ukrainian troops are fighting each other on the ground, Anonymous started cyber warfare against the Kremlin, showing that in the 21st century, countries and non-state actors might fight a war on different levels.

  • Afghanistan today between terrorism and geopolitics: interview with Jill Suzanne Kornetsky

    Afghanistan is a strategic country in Eurasia, a land where superpowers (British Empire, Soviet Union, the United States) had known their limits trying to control the local population and include it in their geopolitical strategy. Therefore, we decide to discuss current dynamics and future developments of Afghanistan with Jill Suzanne Kornetsky, a Kabul-based consultant, researcher, analyst and social entrepreneur.

Online Course "Geopolitical Intelligence Analysis"_November 2025

22 November 2025 – Online Course Geopolitical Intelligene Analysis

This course represents a practical step for professionals aiming to refine their analytical discipline in a rapidly shifting global environment.

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