Tokayev’s suggestion to create an organisation in the framework of the CIS to promote the Russian language might be interpreted as Kazakhstan’s attempt to normalise relations with Russia, which were downgraded due to the Ukraine conflict and the Western sanctions.
Since the beginning of the Ukraine conflict, the Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov has played a decisive and influential role in assisting the Russian military operations on the ground with his kadyrovtsy and Chechen troops and supporting the Kremlin’s ideological confrontation with the West.
Due to its geographical position in the Asia-Pacific, Myanmar plays a strategic role in China’s regional policy, especially in connection with the Malacca Dilemma.
Due to the borders drawn by the former Soviet Union with no regard for ethnic, political, economic, and cultural factors, the Central Asian countries Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan have faced each other for 31 years, and the recent military escalation highlighted regional instability and geopolitical strategies promoted by Dushanbe and Bishkek.
In October 2022, representatives of Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, Iran, and Russia will attend the second Caspian Economic Forum hosted in Moscow to discuss future energy cooperation and projects.
The United States and Japan have intensified their military, commercial and diplomatic cooperation to counter Russia and China’s strategy in the Asia-Pacific and strengthen Washington’s foreign policy Pivot to Asia.
The Azerbaijani army’s aggression against Armenia raises concerns about the stability of the South Caucasus, an area which plays a fundamental role in the EU Energy Security Strategy.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 23 Issue 2 – In recent years, the People’s Republic of China has heavily invested in renewable resources, particularly in the hydropower sector. Under the Xi Jinping administration, this energy sector has progressively assumed a role in sustaining part of the electricity demand of both the industrial and civil sectors.
Ilham Aliyev’s visit to Italy confirmed Baku’s interest in strengthening commercial and business partnerships with Rome and attracting Italian investments in the reconstruction process in the Nagorno-Karabakh territories, which are now under Azerbaijani control.
Over the years, the Islamic Republic of Iran has consolidated its relations with the countries of Central Asia, exploiting either the Persian common ethnic-cultural element or proposing itself as a logistic hub for the energy sector and trade corridors.
Nanci Pelosi’s visit to Taipei and the U.S. military manoeuvres in the region confirmed Washington’s interests in the Asia-Pacific and the United States’ attempt to achieve political-strategic goals in an area which has experienced the rise of Chinese military and political presence.
In a world of growing polarity, Kazakhstan has been attempting to portray itself as a bridge connecting the East and the West. However, the so-called Russian “special operation” in Ukraine has forced the Central Asian nation to distance itself gradually from Moscow.
China and Japan are competing in the East China Sea on the local energy resources considered fundamental in Beijing’s economic and foreign policy and Tokyo’s strategic approach to the Asia-Pacific.
Among the framework of Rimpac 2022, Washington has organised several training activities to enhance interoperability between the U.S. Navy, Amy, Marines and Airforce and the armed forces of allied countries part of the Asia-Pacific region and contrast the rising Chinese threat in the area.
The People’s Republic of China and the United States have embarked on a foreign policy aimed at influencing political and economic dynamics in Vietnam, a republic in the Asia-Pacific which plays a strategic role thanks to its geographical position.
Although Russian – Iranian ties date back to the Islamic Revolution, Moscow’s ongoing conflict in Ukraine (or special military operation as the Kremlin has always declared) and Tehran’s nuclear ambitions have strengthened the cooperation and pushed these Western adversaries together.
Over the past two months, the tension in Greek-Turkish relations has reached new heights. What triggered it seemed to have been the age-old Turkish claims concerning the continental shelf delimitation and the total demilitarisation of the Greek Islands in the Eastern Aegean.
US Indo-Pacific Command coordinated the Valiant Shield exercise conducted near the second island chain and in the Philippine Sea to counter the Chinese presence in the Asia-Pacific.
Since the U.S. troops’ withdrawal and the Taliban’s rise to power, Afghanistan has witnessed huge uncertainty, instability and destabilisation due to the terrorist threat and criminal activities, economic problems, interethnic confrontation aggravated by the Taliban interim government, and regional and international geopolitical interests.
The ongoing political crisis is not the only issue affecting Iraq. Fight against terrorism, extreme drought, frequent sandstorms, demonstrations against rampant corruption, and a dispute with Iraqi Kurdistan to manage the hydrocarbon fields in the north are challenging the central Government of Baghdad.
On June 15th, 2022, the 18th international meeting of Astana Peace Talks kicked off in Nur Sultan, the capital of Kazakhstan. As guarantor countries, delegations from Russia, Turkey and Iran (which launched the Astana peace process in January 2017) will meet the Syrian government and opposition forces during the two-day talks.
This analysis attempts to understand the Xi Jinping administration’s geopolitical vision for Hong Kong by examining the National security law and the economic-financial interaction between the PRC economy and Fragrant Harbour.
SpecialEurasia investigated contemporary Bahrein, its energy market and media situation with Rashid Al-Hamer, the Secretary-General of the Bahrain Journalists Association, and Sara Najeeb, board member and Head of the Media Committee of the Bahrain Journalists Association.
Kurdistan is experiencing severe internal complications due to the relationship with the central government in Baghdad and the recent Turkish military operation in the region in which Ankara planned to eliminate PKK members defined by Turkish authorities as “terrorists”.
Located in the south of the Arabian Peninsula, the Sultanate of Oman has elaborated a strategy to establish balanced relations with regional and international actors, improve social living conditions, attract foreign direct investments (FDIs), and promote its historical identity and traditions.
During the 31st World Congress of IFJ, we discussed with Iraqi, Syrian and Yemenite representatives the situation in their countries, focusing on society, media and the impact of regional and international geopolitics.
Since 2003, the situation in Iraq has undergone a significant change, and the country has had to face a process of modernisation and democratisation combined with the fight against the various local terrorist organisations, primarily the Islamic State, which have undermined the local stability and represented a threat to the security of the Iraqi people.
The United States and its allies will watch closer the growing partnership between China and the Solomon Islands monitoring whether Beijing will manage to build a military base in a country that plays a strategic role in the Pacific.
Iran and Tajikistan marked a significant step in their bilateral relations after the meeting of the Iranian and Tajik presidents and the signing of 16 cooperation agreements which stressed Tehran’s cultural diplomacy in Central Asia and Dushanbe’s attempt to diversify its foreign partners.
Italy recently discussed further cooperation with Uzbekistan, showing Rome’s attempt to play a more influential role in Central Asia by being engaged in a strategic market where Italian companies might export their know-how and products while the Italian authorities might diversify trade and energy imports.
The Russian Federation outlined a programme to deploy the Pacific submarine flotilla as the Kremlin’s response to the growing geopolitical instability in the Northwest Asia-Pacific region. In this area, the Russian Federation identifies the Sea of Japan and the Korean Peninsula as the main geostrategic areas
On May 12th – 13th, 2022, President Biden held a summit in Washington with the member states of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to counter the political-economic expansionism of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Asia-Pacific region.
Due to its strategic position and natural resources, China has elaborated a Polar Silk Road to play a leading role in the Arctic zone, attempting to develop joint projects with local actors, especially the Russian Federation, opening a new transit route for its goods.
Recent clashes in Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Region, border security problems with Afghanistan and the last Islamic State terrorist attack have underlined the problematic situation that Tajikistan needs to manage to guarantee national stability and security.
The Democratic People’s Republic of Korea (DPRK) expanded its atomic arsenal to defend its territory from possible aggression by the Republic of Korea, assisted by Washington and Tokyo. At the same time, North Korea has also faced complicated situations caused by United Nations sanctions eased by Chinese economic and geostrategic interests in the Korean Peninsula.
The war in Ukraine provided Serbia with an opportunity to continue and boost the policy, which was already unfolding even before the war, of replacing Russia with China as Serbia’s primary non-Western partner.
Recent cyber attacks against Italian government websites highlighted the Ukraine conflict’s impact on the cyber landscape and possible future threats to Europe and Russia’s public institutions and private businesses.
In the last couple of months, Islamic State Khurasan Province (ISKP) and its local Central Asian militants have been increasing their propaganda output by directly targeting regional countries (especially Uzbekistan), calling for attacks against local governments and jihad in Central Asia.
Against the backdrop of the Ukrainian conflict, several frozen conflicts of the post-Soviet space have witnessed new tensions. Two critical events promoted by Azerbaijan sparked protests in Armenia and might prompt a new escalation over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Recent events in the Gulf underlined that while Saudi Arabia is focusing on the al-Mahrah province on the border with Oman to ease its access to the Indian Ocean, the UAE is getting hold of the essential Yemenite islands, with the most relevant being Socotra.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 18 Issue 2 – Recently, representatives of Italy held a series of meetings with colleagues in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, dedicated to the issues of enhancing cultural cooperation, confirming Rome’s interests in Central Asia.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 18 Issue 2 – The 2021 proclamation of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan reveals several straightforward and/or controversial relationships with state and non-state figures at the regional level. This intricate web of relations plays a role in outlining the Taliban regime’s assets and challenges.
In the political-strategic vision of the Russian Federation, the Northwest Asia-Pacific region represents a geo-maritime space of high strategic value for the defence of its national interests
The Iranian nuclear deal might become the watershed in the Middle Eastern dynamics, leading to regional escalations and divisions and rising the geopolitical risk level.
Since the beginning of the special military operation of the Russian Armed Forces in Ukraine, political leaders and experts have been seriously concerned about the situation on the world food market. It is possible that a number of countries in North Africa and the Middle East may face a real threat of famine.
The Ukrainian crisis, which was supposed to represent the collapse of the Russian economy and its leading role in Eurasia, is having unexpected implications. The sanctions imposed on Moscow’s energy supplies have caused oil prices to rise and created some opportunities for the Persian Gulf countries.
Due to the political-military instability in the Korean Peninsula, Moscow and Tokyo have increased their monitoring activities in the Sea of Japan to defend their respective geopolitical and strategic interests.
Ukraine conflict and the Russian military operations highlight that international security can only be mutual, based on relevant contractual obligations and tangible actions that create an atmosphere of mutual trust.
The Ukraine conflict and Western sanctions against Russia might highlight the Iranian role in the oil sector in the Eurasian chessboard, especially for the European Union interested in diversifying its energy import and decreasing the Russian grip.
In the emerging realities of international relations, it seems crucial to develop an understanding of how the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, which escalated in 2022, will affect the situation in various regions of Eurasia, for example, in the Caspian region, which after the collapse of the USSR turned into one of the most important and complex geopolitical problems of international relations.
Since the Obama administration took office, the United States has identified Japan as a key ally to contrast the rapid economic and military growth of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the Asia-Pacific region.
Nella storia del Caucaso l’eccidio di Sumgait è un evento che ricopre particolare importanza le cui conseguenze sono ancora visibili nelle relazioni tra Armenia e Azerbaigian e nella narrativa che oppone Yerevan a Baku, in special modo a seguito del conflitto del Nagorno-Karabakh.
The war between Russia and Ukraine, which has just begun, could also have implications in the sphere of the operations and propaganda of the Salafist-jihadist organisations.
Today’s European Union is characterised by many crises entwining one another, resulting in politicisation and polarisation around issues and challenges of the EU itself. At the same time, the concept of the EU has progressively become an object of politicisation and polarisation.
In the geopolitical project presented in 2013 by the Xi Jinping Presidency for the Asia-Pacific region called China Dream, Beijing attributed a high degree of geostrategic importance to the coastline of the Asian mainland.
The trial of Habib Farajollah Chaab, Iranian-Swedish ringleader of Al-Ahwaziah, revealed that Saudi Arabia financially supported the Arab separatist movement, which carried out attacks in Iran and several European countries.
Within the North Pacific Area, the Bering Strait and the area surrounding are for the Russian Federation and the United States a geo-maritime space of vital importance inherent to the defence of their respective geopolitical interests.
The opening of the first Chinese consulate in Iran, in the port city of Bandar Abbas, will boost Beijing’s investments on the Iranian coast of the Gulf of Oman. Beijing aims to establish several Chinese companies in the Makran region and connect Iranian ports to its Belt and Road Initiative.
The strategic value attributed by the United States to the archipelago of the Philippines can be traced back to the geopolitical dispute between Washington and the People’s Republic of China (PRC), for the control of some geo-maritime areas between the eastern and southern sides of the China Sea.
The Turkish Cooperation and Coordination Agency (TIKA) plays a key role in promoting Ankara’s influence and presence in strategic regions through socio-cultural, economic and humanitarian projects.
According to a domestic survey, most Iranians consider the Israeli regime to be a threat whose possible adventurism must be seriously dealt with in case of Israel-Iran military confrontation.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 15 Issue 5 – Iran and South Korea might improve their economic and financial relations if the Asian country will release frozen Iranian assets after having played a positive role in the recent nuclear talks in Vienna.
Although China’s economic growth has slowed in recent months due to several COVID-19 outbreaks, energy shortages and a regulatory crackdown in some sectors, the overall economic recovery is stable. Annual GDP growth is expected to reach 8% in 2021, down 0.1 from the July forecast.
Since its geostrategic position and military force and considering Washington’s Pivot to Asia policy, Australia is an essential U.S. ally for Chinese containment within the waters of the South China Sea.
Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 15 Issue 2 – Among the numerous issues that impact Iran-Azerbaijan relations, considering the recent events which have interested the Caucasus region and the Iranian-Azerbaijani dialogue, it is fundamental to analyse the ethnic minority of Azeri who live on the Iranian territory and influence Tehran’s domestic and regional policies.
The recent Kazakh political crisis and the CSTO military intervention in the country marked a new phase in the geopolitics of Central Asia since the Kremlin re-established its grip on the Republic of Kazakhstan after having military and politically supported President Toqayev.
Brexit was a capital event in recent European history and among many consequences, helped to bring up an identity as a political issue. Brexit impacted both negatively and positively in terms of European identity.
The current Lebanese situation does not require an exacerbation of the tension among its components and a revival of additional factors of fear and caution, but rather a search for exits that mitigate tensions and reassure all communities about their existence and their cultural, social, and political specificities.
The geostrategic importance that the Japanese Senkaku archipelago has assumed in recent years can be traced back to the geopolitical priorities identified by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the United States recognisable as the two most militarily equipped countries in the north-west Asia-Pacific area.
Lebanon and Italy have many common traits and some apparent differences. Both are centralised countries with marked differences between territories; both are experiencing a long-term political-institutional deadlock and wonder how to get out.
For the Russian Federation, since its conquest against the Japanese Empire at the end of World War II, the Kuril Islands have represented an island area of vital geostrategic importance for the defence of its interests in the Asia-Pacific Northwest.
A deep crisis on the eastern side of Europe might lead to a new confrontation between the United States (read NATO) and Russia. If the direct war between the two powers seems difficult to happen, the sense of encirclement perceived by the Russians is dangerously pushing Moscow into the arms of Beijing.
Amid the burgeoning sentimental relationship between Beijing and the resurrected Taliban’s Emirate 2.0, the al Qaeda-affiliated Turkestan Islamic Party (TIP) has aggravated its propaganda war against Communist China, hence cleverly concealing its historically faithful jihadi bonds with the Afghan Taliban.
The Island of Guam in the Asia-Pacific region plays a decisive role for the U.S. military and geopolitical strategy in countering Chinese expansion and influence in the area.
The presence of Uyghur suicide bombers in the ranks of the Islamic State-Khorasan increases Beijing’s fears about the threat to China’s national security emanating from Afghanistan.
We have monitored terrorist and violent attacks in Afghanistan in 2021 and produced an interactive map to assess which regions are affected mainly by terrorist organisations and analyse how terrorism has evolved or changed since the Taliban’s rise to power.
The European Union seeks to increase its economic partnership with Tajikistan to strengthen Brussels’ position in Central Asia and become part of Central Asia’s ‘New Great Game’ after the U.S. troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan.
After the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States is expected to redefine its position in Central Asia to contrast the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Iranian regional strategy.
The recent official visit of the President of Tatarstan in Bishkek and the forum ‘Tatarstan – Kyrgyzstan’ highlighted the role that Kazan might play in supporting the Russian strategy in the Kyrgyz republic by improving economic cooperation and trade turnover.
The recent telephone talk between Putin and Raisi highlighted Russia-Iran cooperation on geopolitical, security, and economic issues in Eurasia and Moscow-Tehran’s desire to strengthen their partnership and collaboration on Afghanistan, Syria, Nagorno-Karabakh.
With the installation of Xi Jinping as head of state in 2012, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has identified the South China Sea as an area of high geopolitical importance for pursuing its geophysical peculiarities of specific political-strategic priorities.
The recent CIS meeting underlined the Kremlin’s strategy to strengthen its influence in Eurasia through military cooperation and diplomacy. In an era characterised by confrontation with the United States and the rise of China’s Belt and Road Initiative, Russia confirms its desire to be the principal player in Eurasia.
The recent visit of the Kyrgyz Foreign Affairs Minister to Italy and his meetings with the Italian counterpart highlighted the Italian attempt to become more involved in the Central Asian market and dynamics and Bishkek’s desire to expand its diplomatic and economic relations to diversify its portfolio of partners and decrease the influence of Russia and China in the country.
Since its birth after the 1821 war against the Ottoman Empire, the Modern Greek state has always been linked to the then three major powers: France, the U.K., and Russia, with the U.K. being substituted by the U.S. during the 20th century to contain the Soviet threat. This dependency is still a reality in Greek politics and foreign affairs. Athens remains a bone of contention for those powers fighting for a strategic position in the Mediterranean Sea.
The Taliban’s pragmatic diplomacy and gradual departure from the Jihadi ideology alienate Central Asian jihadists from the Taliban and strengthen its ardent enemy, the Islamic State Khorasan (IS-K). Taliban-backed Uyghur jihadists, who exploited shahids (martyr) exclusively against the Chinese authorities in the past, recently carried out a suicide attack against the Shia Hazara minority under Taliban rule.
Thanks to the support of the American-Uzbek Chamber of Commerce, the United States aims at strengthening its economic presence in Uzbekistan, considering the strategic role that Tashkent plays in Central Asian dynamics and transport corridors and Afghan domestic politics.
L’importanza geostrategica che negli ultimi anni ha assunto l’isola di Taiwan è riconducibile alle priorità geopolitiche definite da Stati Uniti e Repubblica Popolare Cinese (RPC), identificabili come i due Paesi militarmente più attivi nell’area Asia-Pacifico nord-occidentale.
The meeting on Afghanistan organised in Tehran confirms the Iranian desire to have a major role in Afghan and regional dynamics and stressed how several Asian countries are strongly promoting greater regional cooperation that in the future might contrast Western local interests and presence.
China might expand its military presence in Central Asia by establishing bases in those countries where Beijing has invested financial funds to support the Belt and Road Initiative. At the same time, since the U.S. troops withdraw from Kabul, Beijigin aims to control border dynamics with Afghanistan, particularly in Tajikistan, and fill the vacuum left by Western military forces.
Since India seeks to strengthen its position and influence in Central Asia to counter China and Pakistan and Tajikistan needs to diversify its international partners, New Delhi – Dushanbe economic and diplomatic partnership might have a geopolitical effect on regional dynamics.
Turkmenistan seeks regional and international partners to strengthen the national economic performance and attract investors in infrastructural projects. Recent meetings between Turkmen and Russian official representatives and companies underline the Kremlin’s strategy to increase its presence in the country and Ashgabat’s necessity to diversify its commercial partners.
The political-strategic priorities of the People’s Republic of China, the Russian Federation and the United States had conferred high geostrategic value to the Korean Peninsula in the North-East Pacific Scenario. In this region, since the totalitarian regime of North Korea hardly coexists with a Western-type State of South Korea, military assets play a fundamental role.
Islamabad strategy in the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard aims at strengthening cooperation with Iran and Azerbaijan on the Caspian Sea to create a transit corridor that might boost Pakistani import-export and commercial trade in the region.
The United Arab Emirates are among the Gulf countries the most active in Central Asia, as demonstrated by the participation of an Emirati business delegation at the International Business Forum Dushanbe-Invest 2021. Abu Dabhi’s investments in Tajikistan highlight Emirati strategy in the country and, generally speaking, in Central Asia to exploit economic opportunities and investment projects to make the UAE a leading foreign actor in the region.
The growing tensions between Iran and Azerbaijan (backed by Turkey) might destabilise the Caucasus and create problems for the transit corridors which cross the region. In this context, to counter the Azerbaijani project of the Zangezur transit corridor, Tehran might establish a new transportation route with Armenia.
Since the Republic of Uzbekistan aims at becoming the energy epicentre of Central Asia by establishing a series of energy production infrastructure and, consequently, attracting foreign direct investments (FDIs) in the country, Germany has shown its interests as confirmed by the recent 1,1 billion euro agreement between German banks and Uzbekneftegaz to expand the capacity of the Shurtan Gas Chemical Complex.
The recent terrorist attack in Kunduz alarmed Tajikistan and Russia on the stability and security of the Afghan-Tajik borders and the Taliban ability to counter Islamic State and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan. In this framework, Moscow and Dushanbe are seeking to enhance their cooperation in the security field, confirming the Russian strategy to play a decisive role in Afghanistan and Central Asia.