Executive Summary
This report provides a focused analysis of the developing security landscape in Central Asia, examining the increasing role of intelligence agencies and special forces in fostering regional cooperation amid shifting geopolitical realities.
This report aims to evaluate the significance of recent security collaboration initiatives, analyse the root causes of defence reforms, and project how future events may influence regional stability.
Background Information
Central Asia saw major political and military shifts between March and April 2025, showing a region reshaping its security landscape.
In March 2025, the presidents of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan concluded a historic border agreement, resolving a long-standing territorial dispute. Reopened borders and renewed air and bus travel reveal improving relations between the two countries, though water rights still could cause problems in the future.
On April 25, 2025, Uzbekistan convened the first-ever meeting of the heads of intelligence and security services from Central Asian states in Tashkent. During Uzbekistan’s presidency of the Central Asian Heads of State Consultative Meeting, the event centred on creating a unified strategy against regional threats like terrorism, drug trafficking, extremism, and cyber security risks.
Recently, the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) accelerated the operationalisation of its long-delayed Targeted Interstate Programme, aimed at reinforcing Tajikistan’s vulnerable border with Afghanistan. On April 11, 2025, Imangali Tasmagambetov, the CSTO Secretary General, went to Dushanbe to complete the program’s first phase, with procurement and deployment planned until 2029.
On the national level, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan announced new defence modernisation initiatives. Uzbekistan announced plans to incorporate AI, robotics, and drones into its military, while Kazakhstan established a Defence Industry Development Fund to boost domestic arms manufacturing and lessen reliance on foreign sources.
In February 2025, at his national address, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon highlighted the need for military modernisation, while also admitting the economic limitations hindering the country’s defence capabilities.
Key Judgements
- Shared worries about Afghanistan’s instability and Russia’s weakening ability to ensure regional security solely through the CSTO are pushing Central Asian countries toward closer security cooperation.
- Uzbekistan is emerging as a principal actor promoting regional security dialogues, using intelligence and defence modernisation as tools to project influence and leadership within Central Asia.
- Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan’s progress in defence and technology contrasts with their reliance on external powers, primarily Russia, China, and also Iran and the Gulf countries.
- The Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan border agreement is a significant but fragile achievement. In the medium term, resource disputes and attempts at external destabilization may jeopardise the agreement.
- Afghanistan remains Central Asia’s biggest external security threat, mainly because of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP) and related extremist groups near the Tajik and Uzbek borders.
Intelligence Analysis
The meeting of Central Asia’s intelligence chiefs signals a turning point. Competition, mistrust, and overlapping external allegiances have historically limited intelligence sharing between these states. The high-level Tashkent forum suggests regional leaders recognise the inadequacy of traditional, externally reliant security models.
President Shavkat Mirziyoyev of Uzbekistan emphasises joint threat assessments and operational mechanisms, reflecting a calculated ambition to gradually structure a Central Asian-led security framework and position Uzbekistan as both a hub and guarantor of stability. Tashkent’s national military reforms, which prioritise the integration of advanced technologies and the creation of automated C2 systems, reinforce this ambition.
Kazakhstan is building a domestic defence industry, reducing reliance on Russia. Astana’s outreach to an array of foreign investors, including China, Turkey, and Gulf states, aligns with its long-standing multi-vector foreign policy. Kazakhstan’s limited military spending and slow development will hinder rapid transformation.
Russia’s attempt to revitalise the CSTO program for Tajikistan’s border security, a plan dormant since 2013, underscores Moscow’s larger goal of maintaining its strategic importance in the region. However, the CSTO’s slow response and bureaucratic inefficiencies have already undermined regional confidence.
Tajikistan remains the weakest link. Limited funds and troops restrict the country’s ability to modernise its military with AI. Dushanbe’s outreach to partners beyond Russia signals a desire for diversification but lacks the economic heft to attract substantial help.
Forecast
- In the short to medium term, Central Asia will experience a steady consolidation of intra-regional security cooperation mechanisms. Intelligence sharing and counter-terrorism cooperation will increase, though national differences will remain a constraint.
- Uzbekistan will continue to drive regional initiatives, while Kazakhstan will focus on building the foundations of a sovereign defence-industrial base. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan will remain dependent on external support, leaving them vulnerable to external manipulation.
- Facing Chinese, Turkish, and Western rivals, Russia will try to strengthen its position using CSTO and bilateral agreements.
- The security situation along the Tajik-Afghan border is unlikely to improve significantly. Spillover violence, narcotics trafficking, and extremist movements will persist as major destabilising factors.
- Regional intelligence agencies will increasingly focus on cybersecurity and information warfare threats, given the growing use of hybrid tactics by state and non-state actors.
- Central Asian security is becoming more autonomous, but remains fragile and vulnerable to external shocks.
*Cover image: The first meeting of heads of special services of Central Asian states took place in Tashkent (Credits: Xavfsizlik Telegram Channel)
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