Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 16
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi

Executive Summary

This report aims to analyse the recent developments regarding Uzbekistan’s military modernisation efforts, as outlined in the presidential address on February 21^st, 2025. The country is considering how to incorporate new technologies, such as drones, artificial intelligence, and automated control systems, into its military forces. These advancements serve as strategic responses to emerging security challenges as terrorism, cyberwarfare, and internal threats.

 However, the report also assesses the potential consequences of these changes on internal control, social stability, and the risk of increased authoritarianism. The analysis also examines the geopolitical consequences of Uzbekistan’s growing military presence in a volatile and tense region.

While the modernisation efforts offer strategic advantages in defence and national security, the increased reliance on advanced military technologies could also lead to an enhanced ability for the government to monitor and control its population. This might worsen existing tensions, especially within minority groups, potentially leading to unrest, crime, and the rise of extremism.

Background Information

On February 21^st, 2025, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev announced a comprehensive plan for military reform during a meeting of the National Security Council. The reform programme emphasises the integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI), robotic systems, and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) into the country’s armed forces to strengthen its defensive capabilities.

Tashkent’s goal is to mitigate contemporary threats, including the growing risk of terrorism, cyberattacks, and the increased use of unmanned aerial vehicles in warfare. Furthermore, the plan includes the establishment of specialised units equipped with high-tech equipment and the creation of an automated command and control (C2) system to optimise decision-making, coordination, and rapid responses to security threats.

The reform also includes developing Uzbekistan’s defence industry, specifically by increasing the domestic production of military equipment to reduce dependency on foreign suppliers, especially in key areas such as drones and armoured vehicles. Moreover, the country’s military is upgrading its training, which includes creating advanced educational programs and emphasising personnel retraining.

Analysis

1. Strategic Imperatives for Technological Integration: The need to address contemporary security threats centres the key strategic drivers behind Uzbekistan’s military modernisation. The country is vulnerable to terrorism and radicalisation because of its proximity to Afghanistan and its historical experiences with extremist groups. AI and UAV investment could bolster Tashkent’s border monitoring, remote surveillance, and counterterrorism efforts. Automating systems also accelerate analysis of large datasets, leading to quicker, more accurate decisions. A modernised military system also helps Uzbekistan to elevate its regional standing. By focusing on advanced technologies, the country might deter regional powers and non-state actors. Stronger military capabilities can offset external pressure and influence, particularly in Central Asia, where Russia, China, Turkey, Iran, and the West compete for influence and control.
2. Potential Risks of Increased Internal Control: New military capabilities, such as automated C2 systems, domestically produced AI, and UAVs, boost efficiency while also expanding government surveillance and control. Given Uzbekistan’s record of human rights violations and heavy-handed responses to domestic remostrances, such as the Karapalkastan protests in 2022, the expansion of high-tech surveillance systems could raise concerns about increased authoritarianism. Such technologies would significantly improve the government’s capacity for surveillance, protest tracking, and the suppression of dissent. In this context, the social consequences of military modernisation may be far-reaching. The ethnic minorities, including the Karakalpaks, could perceive the government’s increasing surveillance capabilities as a further infringement on their rights. Past grievances heighten the risk of rising ethnic tensions and civil unrest. These controls could unintentionally encourage crime and radicalisation, providing fertile ground for jihadist propaganda, particularly if social inequality or oppressive policies continue.
3. Geopolitical Implications and External Dependencies: The integration of foreign technologies into Uzbekistan’s military, especially with Russia and Turkey providing essential knowledge on UAVs and AI, introduces a potential vulnerability to industrial espionage. These collaborations, while offering technological progress, also leave Uzbekistan vulnerable to cybersecurity threats and potential espionage. Increased reliance on foreign suppliers for licenses and technologies could give foreign powers undue influence over Uzbekistan, limiting its strategic autonomy in the future. The focus on self-sufficiency in the defence industry is a crucial goal, but it will take time for Uzbekistan to overcome the technological and financial barriers to fully developing indigenous capabilities in UAV production and AI systems. Increased military power in Central Asia could cause neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan to strengthen their own defences, possibly sparking an arms race or altering regional alliances.

Conclusion

Uzbek military modernisation stems from a need to meet new security challenges and enhance its regional influence. Integrating advanced technologies, such as AI and UAVs, combined with an automated command-and-control system, will enhance the country’s defensive capabilities, especially in terms of counterterrorism, border control, and internal security.

Significant concerns about authoritarianism and social stability arise from the dual-use nature of these technologies, which have applications in population control. The risk of increased repression against ethnic minorities and civil unrest cannot be overlooked.

Moreover, Uzbekistan’s shift towards domestic defence production introduces both technological challenges and geopolitical risks, especially in terms of reliance on foreign expertise and potential espionage. While the aim of self-sufficiency is commendable, achieving it will require substantial investment and diplomatic care to avoid exacerbating tensions with regional neighbours.

To ensure long-term stability, Tashkent must carefully balance military modernisation’s benefits (enhanced national security and technological advancement) with the need for internal control and social cohesion, mitigating the potential aggravation of existing societal grievances.

*Cover picture: Uzbekistan army (Credits: Uzbekistan Embassy in the United States of America – See page for author, CC0, via Wikimedia Commons)

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