Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 52 Issue 2
SpecialEurasia OSINT Team

Executive Summary

This report evaluates Tajikistan’s ongoing military modernisation efforts, spearheaded by President Emomali Rahmon, focusing on the integration of advanced technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI), and the broader geopolitical and economic challenges associated with the country’s defence strategy.

The report also examines the constraints posed by Tajikistan’s financial limitations, its heavy reliance on external partners, and the potential consequences for domestic stability.

Key issues addressed include the effectiveness of foreign alliances in bolstering Dushanbe’s military capacity, the risk of increased social unrest stemming from an overemphasis on military development, and the potential strategic outcomes shaped by regional and global power dynamics.

Background Information

On the 32^nd anniversary of Tajikistan’s Armed Forces, President Emomali Rahmon emphasised the need for modernisation within the military, emphasising the importance of advanced technologies, including artificial intelligence (AI), in enhancing decision-making processes and command structures. The president stressed the importance of ongoing professional development for the military and modernising the nation’s equipment to counter emerging threats, especially from extremist groups and drug cartels.

Despite the call for modernisation, Tajikistan remains one of the least militarily capable countries in Central Asia. The Global Firepower Index of 2025 ranks the country 108^th out of 1405 nations, with an army of approximately 9,500 personnel. With a defence budget that makes up only 1.01% of its GDP, the Central Asian republic lacks the resources for extensive military modernisation programs. Dushanbe’s economic constraints have led them to pursue partnerships with Russia, China, Iran, and possibly Western countries.

Tajik Military Modernisation: Analysis

Tajikistan’s military modernisation programme faces significant challenges because of its financial constraints and technological limitations. The country depends heavily on external actors for military support, particularly Russia and China. Economic necessity and geopolitical realities shape the reliance on these powers.

As the leading military power in the region, Russia’s influence through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), combined with the presence of the 201^st Military Base in Dushanbe, ensures Tajikistan’s alignment with Moscow’s strategic interests. However, ongoing conflicts in Ukraine overextend Russia’s military capabilities, limiting its ability to fully support the Central Asian republic’s security needs.

China’s role is similarly significant. Tajikistan is a crucial participant in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), with Chinese investments contributing to the country’s infrastructure development. However, this dependence on China for economic growth could increase Tajikistan’s vulnerability to Beijing’s geopolitical objectives. The presence of Chinese military bases and growing security cooperation in Tajikistan further deepens this relationship, posing risks of over-reliance and compromising Dushanbe’s strategic autonomy.

In contrast, relations with the West, particularly the United States, are relatively limited but have shown potential for growth, especially in counterterrorism and counter-narcotics cooperation.

The West’s technological expertise, particularly in AI and command-and-control (C2) systems, offers a potential avenue for Dushanbe to diversify its military capabilities without excessively aligning itself with any one power. But closer ties between Tajikistan and Western militaries might strain relations with Russia and China, adding to the country’s foreign policy challenges.

Internally, Tajikistan faces the challenge of balancing military modernisation with the risk of social unrest. The country’s ethnic minorities, particularly in the Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), have historically been resistant to central government control.

Focusing on military buildup could worsen tensions, turning the modernisation program into a tool for oppression, thus fuelling radicalisation and dissent. Its military spending could worsen Tajikistan’s economic weakness, especially amid the U.S.-China trade war, hindering crucial socioeconomic development and potentially increasing unrest and crime linked to drugs and extremism.

Future Scenarios

Tajikistan’s strategic priorities in the next five years will largely depend on its ability to diversify its economy and navigate its complex geopolitical environment. The following potential scenarios are worth considering:

1. Economic Diversification (60%): The primary focus for Tajikistan should be on economic diversification to reduce its reliance on Chinese investments and mitigate the risks associated with its limited defence spending. Foreign direct investment and stronger trade ties with Europe and Gulf Arab countries might help Tajikistan secure long-term economic stability and ease issues of unemployment, poverty, and radicalisation. This approach could also foster wider technological collaboration, encompassing AI and defence.
2. Geopolitical Alliances (30%): Strengthening ties with Russia and China remains essential, given the security threats posed by extremist groups in Afghanistan and the region. However, Dushanbe must carefully balance its relationships with these powers to avoid becoming overly dependent. Maintaining a multilateral approach that incorporates regional players, such as India, Turkey, and Iran, as well as engaging with Western partners in a limited but focused manner, would allow Dushanbe to strengthen its strategic flexibility.
3. Military Modernisation (10%): While military modernisation remains necessary for internal security and counterterrorism, Tajikistan must prioritise the professionalisation of its forces over large-scale acquisitions of advanced weaponry. This approach would allow the country to manage limited resources while ensuring that its military can address both external threats and internal stability. However, military modernisation should not come at the cost of deepening tensions within the population, particularly with ethnic minorities.

Conclusion

We must view Tajikistan’s military modernisation efforts within a broader context of economic diversification and geopolitical balancing, while recognising their importance to national security.

Funding its military goals is a major challenge for the nation, and its growing dependence on external powers like Russia and China presents both strategic advantages and diplomatic dangers.

For lasting stability, the Central Asian republic needs a multifaceted approach that prioritises economic growth and regional cooperation while cautiously developing its military to avoid fuelling internal instability. A failure to balance these priorities could cause greater vulnerability to external influence and internal unrest, undermining the country’s long-term prospects for security and prosperity.

*Cover picture: Tajikistan soldiers during the CSTO collective peacekeeping operations in Kazakhstan, 2022. (Credits: Mil.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

Contact us at info@specialeurasia.com for further tailored reports and consulting services on Tajikistan and Central Asia.