Executive Summary:

The first round of the 2025 presidential elections in Abkhazia has become a pivotal moment in the region’s geopolitical landscape.

Following the resignation of the previous president in November 2024, the elections on February 15^th, 2025, have provided insight into the complex relationships between local political dynamics, ethnic tensions, and the influence of key external actors such as Russia, Turkey, and the Armenian community within Abkhazia.

This report aims to analyse the key outcomes of the election, the potential shifts in Abkhazia’s foreign and domestic policies, and the broader implications for regional stability. The results were as follows: Gunba 46.38%, Ardzinba 36.92%, Bartstits 4.04%, Arshba 7.53%, and Khurkhumal 0.91%. As no candidate obtained more than 50% of the vote, a second round will be held on March 1st, 2025.

Information Context

• Election Overview and Key Candidates: The first round of Abkhazia’s presidential election saw five candidates vying for the presidency: the well-known Abkhazian politician Badra Gunba, the opposition leader Adgur Ardzinba, the former trade representative in Russia Oleg Bartstits, the former head of the Control Chamber of the Republic Robert Arshba, and the chairman of the Black Sea Development Bank Adgur Khurkhumal.
• Gumba, a figure from Bzhania’s administration, emerged as the leading candidate with 46.38% of the vote, while Ardzinba, viewed as having pro-Turkish leanings, received 36.92%. Dmitry Marshan, head of the Abkhaz CEC, announced that voter turnout in the presidential elections exceeded 55% and that the results were valid.
• Ethnic and Political Dynamics: According to opposition’s allegations, the Armenian community in Abkhazia played a pivotal role in Gunba’s success. Armenia’s diaspora in Abkhazia is intricately tied to Russia, with many Armenians moving freely between Abkhazia and the Krasnodar territories in Russia. This ethnic community has historically sought protection from Russia, especially in the face of perceived Turkish influences. The opposition has used nationalist rhetoric against the Armenian community, which in turn consolidated support for Gunba, further complicating Abkhazian inter-ethnic relations.
• Economic Considerations: Gunba advocates continued Russian financial assistance, including public sector wage support and infrastructure development. Ardzinba’s victory could lead to a policy shift, with potential reductions in Russian funding and an opening for Turkish investment.
• Geopolitical Narratives and External Influence: Gunba’s platform, which advocates for deepening ties with Russia, including economic reforms and social stability programs financed by Russia, aligns him with Moscow’s interests. His potential victory is seen as continuing Russia’s influence in the region and maintaining the status quo of Abkhazia’s autonomous statehood under Russian guarantee. Conversely, Ardzinba’s campaign, which leans towards Turkey, is seen as a shift away from Russia. This shift could complicate Abkhazia’s future relations with Moscow, leading to reduced financial transfers and a potential decrease in public sector wages.
• Russia’s Strategic Interests: Moscow perceives Abkhazia as a key strategic ally, particularly due to its geographic position on the Black Sea, where Russia stationed its Black Sea fleet. It is important to remember that a significant portion of the Black Sea coastline belongs to Turkey, which is dotted with US and NATO bases and military installations. Georgia, which holds another key access point to the sea, was on the verge of joining Europe, with Brussels consistently displaying hostility toward Moscow—animosity that was heightened by the conflict in Ukraine but had already been present beforehand. For Russia, the presence of a buffer state in the Black Sea is crucial for securing its western flank. Despite the tensions surrounding investments, Russia also remains the primary guarantor of Abkhazian sovereignty, against a new Georgian military intervention. However, Moscow may also be seeking a balance, fostering a compromise between Abkhazia and Georgia to improve relations with Tbilisi.

Geopolitical Scenario

The elections, as predicted to SpecialEurasia by Kan Taniya, adviser at the Embassy of the Republic of Abkhazia in Russia, did not result in a decisive victory for any candidate, necessitating a second round.

The Armenian community in Abkhazia played a decisive role in the election, with many Armenians reportedly supporting Gunba. Ethnic Armenians rallied behind Gunba for different reasons. Firstly, because of their relations with Moscow, as they have a consistent diaspora in the Krasnodar territories and are constantly moving between Abkhazia and Russia. Moreover, they voted for Gunba out of self-preservation, as Russia remains their primary guarantor of security, particularly in the face of threats from pro-Turkish elements.

Historically, Armenians in Abkhazia have sought protection from Russia whenever nationalist rhetoric has surfaced in the region. The memory of the Armenian genocide under the Ottoman Empire continues to influence the political choices of the Armenian population, particularly in light of statements from opposition channels that have been nationalistic and hostile toward non-Abkhaz groups. Not to mention, recently leaked documents from Ankara suggesting a worst-case scenario involving pogroms against Armenians.

If Gunba secures victory in the 2nd round, he is expected to ensure the continuation of Russian financial support for Abkhazia. His administration would likely focus on economic development, social programs, and infrastructure projects, including the renovation of schools and hospitals, with Moscow assistance. Additionally, Gunba advocates for preserving the system of financial supplements for Abkhaz state employees, whose salaries Moscow largely subsidise. Russian political and business elites would interpret his victory as a sign of stability, reinforcing investor confidence and securing continued financial aid from Russia.

Conversely, an Ardzinba victory could signal a shift in Abkhazia’s foreign policy, potentially leading to a cooling of relations with Russia. This could result in a reduction of Russian financial transfers, directly impacting public sector wages and halting key infrastructure projects. Furthermore, opposition figures have promoted harsh rhetoric targeting Abkhazian citizens of non-Abkhaz origin, including proposals to revise the grounds for obtaining citizenship. Such measures could escalate inter-ethnic tensions within the Republic. On the other hand, a realignment toward Turkey and Azerbaijan could bring economic benefits, particularly in trade and investment, but would not lead to the official recognition of Abkhazia, as Ankara and Baku consider Georgia a key strategic partner and are unlikely to take steps that could encourage separatist movements within their own borders.

Beyond the electoral landscape, the controversy over Russian investments has fuelled tensions between Abkhaz authorities and Moscow. While Abkhazia has historically relied on Russian subsidies, opposition groups have resisted laws that would allow direct Russian investments, fearing that large-scale acquisitions by Russian entities could undermine Abkhaz control over local assets. Some in Russia are critical of the fact that while Abkhazia receives significant financial subsidies from Moscow, it does not allow Russian investments in the country. The Abkhaz themselves have no inherent opposition to Russians or Russian investments. The issue, however, lies elsewhere: Abkhazia’s claim to independence is rooted in historical and ethnic justifications, as the Abkhaz are ethnically distinct from Georgians and form the majority in the country. Loss of their demographic majority would significantly weaken their claim to independence.

Many Georgian oligarchs hold Russian passports, and by presenting themselves as Russians, they could easily acquire property in Abkhazia. From Moscow’s perspective, even an excessive influx of Russian property ownership could create a similar demographic imbalance. At the same time, Abkhazia is in dire need of foreign investment, making the situation particularly complex. With the West backing Georgia, the only investments that do not pose a direct threat to Abkhazian independence come from Russia. However, the opposition appears willing to open the door to Turkish investments.

Turkey, in turn, could structure its investments in a way that avoids straining its relations with Georgia, likely channeling funds through the Abkhaz Muhajirs—descendants of Abkhaz exiles living in Turkey—who could formally acquire property on Ankara’s behalf. This, however, could introduce instability, given Turkey’s historical policies toward certain ethnic minorities, particularly Armenians. During the electoral campaign, troubling reports surfaced about an alleged plan by Ankara to compile lists of Armenians in Abkhazia and pass them on to Azerbaijan. No officials issued statements or denials regarding these claims. The opposition merely dismissed the allegations as part of a broader smear campaign against them, without providing further clarification.

At the regional level, geopolitical shifts in Georgia add another layer of complexity. The ruling Georgian Dream party has distanced itself from the prospect of Georgia joining the European Union, adopting a more open stance toward Moscow after a prolonged period of tensions. This development could prompt Russia to seek a compromise between Sukhum and Tbilisi. However, while Moscow may consider limited concessions to Georgia as part of a broader strategy to strengthen bilateral ties, it remains unlikely to abandon Abkhazia’s independence, given its strategic importance as a Black Sea outpost and a key location for the Russian fleet. Georgia, in a joint statement with the European Union, has declared its non-recognition of the elections.

Abkhazia remains strategic for Russia, also from a geographical point of view. It is important to remember that a significant portion of the Black Sea coastline belongs to Turkey, which is dotted with US and NATO bases and military installations. For Russia, the presence of a buffer state in the Black Sea is crucial for securing its western flank. Additionally, Georgia, which holds another key access point to the sea, was on the verge of joining Europe, with Brussels consistently displaying hostility toward Moscow—animosity that was heightened by the conflict in Ukraine but had already been present beforehand.

Another critical factor is Abkhazia’s deep ethnic and cultural ties to the North Caucasus, particularly the Karachay-Circassian region within the Russian Federation. Despite being formally categorised as part of Transcaucasia, Abkhazia shares strong historical and familial bonds with North Caucasian groups, such as the Abaza and Circassians. Maintaining stability in Abkhazia is therefore essential for Moscow, as any instability could spill over into the Russian North Caucasus, potentially fuelling separatist movements. For Abkhaz citizens, continued access to the Russian Caucasus is equally important, as it allows them to travel and maintain their connections with their ethnic kin.

A significant geopolitical challenge for Abkhaz citizens, in fact, remains the lack of international recognition of their passports. Currently, the Russian passport is the only travel document that enables them to move, study, and work abroad. If Abkhazia were to pivot too strongly toward Turkey and become perceived as a destabilising force for Moscow, Russia could restrict the issuance of passports and citizenship, as it recently did for two members of the opposition. This scenario could further complicate Abkhazia’s geopolitical position, limiting its ability to manoeuvre between major regional powers.

The Armenian factor

The Armenian Community of the Republic of Abkhazia issued a statement asking the Abkhaz government to intervene in their defence given the threat they received during this presidential election.

STATEMENT issue by the Chairman of the Armenian Community of the Republic of Abkhazia, A.A. Minosyan:

“To:

• Acting President of the Republic of Abkhazia, V.R. Bganba
• Speaker of the People’s Assembly – Parliament of the Republic of Abkhazia, L.N. Ashuba
• Acting Prosecutor General of the Republic of Abkhazia, D.G. Kvitsinia
• Acting Head of the State Security Service, D.G. Kuchuberiya
• Acting Minister of Internal Affairs, R.V. Kiut
• Chairman of the Public Chamber of the Republic of Abkhazia, G.M. Kichba
• Presidential Candidate Campaign Headquarters, A.A. Ardzinba
• Presidential Candidate Campaign Headquarters, B.Z. Gunba

Audio recordings have been circulating online in which citizens E.Z. Bganba and Yu. Vanaba call for the persecution of Armenian citizens of the Republic of Abkhazia based on their political choices. These materials contain direct calls for violence and undermine interethnic unity within the Republic of Abkhazia.

Since the start of the election campaign, community leaders in villages with Armenian populations have been subjected to pressure and threats demanding their support for specific political forces. The Armenian community of Abkhazia has refrained from making public statements, adhering to the principle of non-interference in the electoral process. However, open calls for violence and the restriction of constitutional rights require an immediate and firm response.

The Armenian community of Abkhazia acts in the interests of the entire country. We call for the strict observance of constitutional principles that guarantee the rights of every citizen, regardless of their ethnicity.

On behalf of all concerned citizens of Abkhazia, we DEMAND:

1. The immediate verification of the authenticity of the circulating audio recordings.
2. If confirmed as authentic, a strict legal assessment of the statements made by E.Z. Bganba and Yu. Vanaba, the initiation of relevant criminal cases, and the prosecution of those responsible.
3. Guarantees for the safety of Armenian citizens and all individuals subjected to pressure or threats during the electoral process.
4. Comprehensive measures to prevent any form of propaganda inciting ethnic hatred and discord.

We request that a written response to this appeal be sent to the Armenian community of the Republic of Abkhazia and that it be published in official state media as soon as possible.”.

The Russian government also intervened. Official Representative of the Investigative Committee of Russia, Svetlana Petrenko, issued the following statement:

“Several media outlets have reported that individuals acting in the interests of one of the candidates in the Abkhazian presidential elections have pressured local residents, including those with Russian citizenship, to support specific political forces. Threats of violence have been made against Abkhazian and Russian citizens of Armenian nationality. According to Part 3, Article 12 of the Criminal Code of the Russian Federation, foreign nationals who commit crimes outside the territory of Russia are subject to criminal liability under Russian law if the crime is directed against a Russian citizen. In accordance with current legislation, the Chairman of the Investigative Committee of Russia has instructed the Main Investigative Directorate to conduct a procedural review regarding the threats and violations of Russian citizens’ rights in Abkhazia. The head of the department has taken personal control over the progress of this investigation.”

Conclusions

The first round of the presidential election in Abkhazia has exposed deep political divisions within society, shaping the course of the region’s future. Badra Gunba’s strong performance, bolstered by support from the Armenian community, underscores the significance of ethnic alliances and Russia’s continued influence. However, Adgur Ardzinba’s platform, which suggests a possible pivot toward Turkish partnerships, presents a potential challenge to Moscow’s dominance.

The election was fiercely contested. Gunba’s supporters celebrated the opposition’s failure, dismissing their rhetoric as conspiratorial. They particularly emphasised the opposition’s claim to represent the entire Abkhaz people, despite securing only a third of the vote. Furthermore, they criticised the opposition for monopolising patriotism, accusing their rivals of branding all dissenters as ‘traitors to the homeland.’

Conversely, the opposition claimed that all other candidates were advancing “anti-people policies.” Some opposition channels blamed the Armenian community for their defeat, while Gunba’s supporters countered by highlighting that even certain ethnically homogenous Abkhaz villages did not vote for Ardzinba. Attempts to intimidate the Armenian community appear to have backfired, alienating them further at the polls.

On opposition platforms, some supporters continue to issue threats against Armenians, with a recently surfaced audio recording even calling for burning those Armenians who voted for Gunba. The Armenian diaspora in Russia is closely monitoring the situation and has warned against any attempt to turn Abkhazian Armenians into marginalised citizens. Ardzinba, who owns property in Sochi—a city with a sizable and influential Armenian population—would be wise to take this into account.

The opposition remains divided on the Armenian issue. While a minority of opposition channels have condemned the anti-Armenian rhetoric that contributed to their poor electoral showing, they also reminded their base that native Armenians are full-fledged citizens of Abkhazia. Meanwhile, Gunba’s supporters have staunchly defended the country’s Armenian and other minority communities, recalling their role in defending Abkhazia during the Georgian aggression. They also pointed out that Armenians are not involved in illegal cryptocurrency activities and have been responsible, law-abiding citizens.

Opposition channels have accused Abkhazians who voted for Gunba of selling out—suggesting that their votes were motivated by promises of Russian-funded infrastructure projects and investments. Some Telegram channels within the opposition have been pushing the narrative of an “Armenian president” in reference to Gunba. According to one source, the nephew of acting President Valery Bganba reportedly remarked: “The Armenians really let us down.”

The only district where Ardzinba outperformed Gunba was Gudauta. In Gagra, the traditionally dominant Arshba clan received roughly the same number of votes as Oleg Bartstits, a factor that could influence future political strategy. Ardzinba also won in Pitsunda, where the opposition capitalised on the controversy surrounding the state dacha to sway a significant portion of the local electorate against the authorities.

Based on the current results, Gunba’s team is leading in six Abkhazian districts, including the capital, Sukhum. Gunba emphasised that this demonstrates broad public support for his platform, which focuses on strengthening law enforcement, fostering economic growth, and reinforcing strategic ties—particularly with Russia. He urged Abkhazians to avoid turning political debates into hostile conflicts, stressing that they are one people and cannot afford further societal divisions.

The second round of the election is scheduled for March 1, 2025.

Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 32 Issue 3
Author: Silvia Boltuc

Picture: The flag of the Republic of Abkhazia (Credits: Aerra Carnicom, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

*Last update: February 17th, 2025 – Time: 20:00 CET

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