Kavkaz Files ISSN 2975-0474 Volume 31 Issue 5
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit
Abkhazia, located in the Caucasus, is experiencing a pivotal moment in its political history. Following the November 2024 political crisis, which led to the resignation of the president, the country is waiting for the presidential elections scheduled for February 15th, 2025.
This election will be a critical test for the country’s political stability and development. SpecialEurasia spoke with Kan Taniya, adviser at the Embassy of the Republic of Abkhazia in Russia, to analyse the internal political situation, the candidates, and the regional outlook.
How significant are the approaching presidential elections in Abkhazia? Could the elections’ outcome signify a shift?
“These elections are of crucial importance for Abkhazia. After years of political instability, the country needs a transparent, inclusive electoral process that genuinely reflects the will of the people. The November 2024 crisis highlighted the urgency of restoring long-term political balance. Weary of frequent government changes over the past three decades—often triggered by protests—the population is determined to closely monitor the next president’s actions.
The Civic Chamber has already announced that it will act as a public oversight body to ensure transparency and accountability. However, the political crisis has had a significant cost: a government paralysed for three months, from November 2024 to February 2025. This period of inactivity has further emphasised the pressing need for institutional stability. The next leader will have to meet public expectations and demonstrate an effective approach to preventing further crises.”
Could you provide an overview of the presidential candidates?
“The Central Electoral Commission of Abkhazia has registered five candidates. Here is a brief profile of each:
- Badra Gumba: Former Vice President and interim President following Aslan Bzhania’s resignation in November 2024. He holds a degree in accounting and auditing, along with a doctorate in economic sciences. Gumba has extensive political experience, having held various government positions, including the Minister of Culture. The former Bzhania administration backs him, and he represents continuity with the previous government.
- Adgur Ardzinba: Leader of the ‘People’s Movement for Renewal’ and considered Gumba’s main challenger. An economist with a doctorate in economic sciences, he previously served as Minister of Economy under President Aleksandr Ankvab. Ardzinba enjoys firm support, particularly among young people and the opposition, because of his rhetoric focused on national sovereignty and economic development.
- Oleg Barziz: A former trade representative of Abkhazia in Russia, he holds a degree in political science from Moscow State University. Despite two decades of experience in the commercial sector, Barziz has limited support, with projections suggesting he will secure no more than 10% of the vote.
- Robert Arshba: Former head of the Abkhazian Chamber of Control, he earned public respect for uncovering financial irregularities in several state institutions. People might see his candidacy as that of a technocrat with strong managerial capabilities, though forecasts indicate he will receive between 8% and 10% of the vote.
- Adgur Khurkhumal: Currently President of the Black Sea Development Bank, he is the only candidate without prior political experience. Little known to the public, he remains a marginal figure in the race and is not expected to achieve a significant result.
Looking at the election, recent polls and estimates suggest that the primary contenders will be Gumba and Ardzinba. In the first round, they are each expected to receive between 38% and 40% of the vote, which would necessitate a second round of voting. In this second round, the role of the eliminated candidates will be decisive, as their endorsements of either Gumba or Ardzinba could influence the outcome.
The presence of five candidates in the presidential election once again underscores Abkhazia’s commitment to democratic principles and political pluralism.”
What are the main energy challenges the next president will face?
“Abkhazia is experiencing a severe energy crisis. The country’s infrastructure is outdated and inadequate to meet rising demand, particularly because of the expansion of the tourism sector. To meet its daily consumption of 7.7 million kWh, the country imports electricity from Russia during the winter. Illegal cryptocurrency mining, however, accounts for 40% of total energy consumption, worsening the national energy supply problem.
At present, power outages last only six hours per day, but in December 2024, the crisis reached its peak, with blackouts extending up to 16 hours a day. This forced the government to request humanitarian help from Russia. In response, Moscow agreed to provide 327 million kWh free of charge, enough to meet Abkhazia’s internal energy demand for two months without blackouts or service interruptions. However, the government still opted to ration electricity, enforcing two-hour outages at night and four-hour blackouts during the day to conserve energy until summer, when melting glaciers will allow the Enguri hydroelectric plant to generate sufficient power.
Dependence on external energy sources and the impact of illegal mining requires immediate intervention. The next president must implement a comprehensive infrastructure modernisation plan and introduce effective measures against illegal mining, which is often difficult to detect as it occurs in private residences. Should the next president fail to address this energy crisis effectively, there is a significant risk that, within the next two to three years, public dissatisfaction could once again trigger a political crisis.”

Will the elections impact relations between Sukhumi and Moscow?
“Abkhazia and Russia have historically maintained strong relations, built on a strategic partnership and mutual support agreements. However, the political crisis of November 2024 has tarnished the international image of this collaboration, fuelling misinformation in foreign media, which has wrongly speculated about a shift in Abkhazia’s geopolitical orientation.
Regardless of the election outcome, the new president will have the responsibility of further strengthening ties with Moscow and restoring the credibility of the strategic partnership. A recent survey revealed that 91% of the Abkhazian population supports close relations with Russia, highlighting how vital this cooperation is for the country’s future.”
The full interview in the Italian language with Kan Taniya is available on SpecialEurasia’s YouTube channel.
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