This report analyses the geopolitical consequences of Russia officially recognising the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in July 2025. This decision highlights Moscow’s intention to expand its influence in Central and South Asia.
After the US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan, the United States is expected to redefine its position in Central Asia to contrast the Kremlin’s Eurasian Economic Union and Collective Security Treaty Organisation, Beijing’s Belt and Road Initiative and Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Iranian regional strategy.