Executive Summary

This June 2025 report on geopolitical risks in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Caucasus focuses on rising tensions, key factors, and future predictions. This helps stakeholders understand emerging threats, thus informing policy, security, and investment decisions.

Israeli-Iranian conflict sharply escalated Middle East fragmentation in June 2025. Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites prompted Iranian missile and drone retaliation. US attacks on Iranian sites broadened the conflict, threatening global energy supplies. Despite a truce, the incident shows regional instability, Israel’s bolder actions, and Iran’s capability to respond. These developments reinforce the enduring risk of renewed hostilities and proxy escalation, with potential spillover into maritime security and global energy supply chains.

Beyond the core conflict, the resurgence of terrorism compounded regional instability in Syria and strategic recalibrations in Central Asia and the Caucasus.

Islamic State’s deadly attack in eastern Syria, coupled with renewed propaganda, reveals persistent jihadist operational capacity and weak governance. Logistical concerns from Middle Eastern unrest prompted Central Asian engagement with Europe and China. Georgian and Armenian political repression intersected with geopolitical manoeuvring, including Yerevan’s Western shift.

Geopolitical competition continues despite a pause in direct conflict, demanding careful planning.

Key Takeaways

1. Strategic Escalation and Retaliation Dynamics. Tel Aviv’s pre-emptive strikes and Tehran’s retaliation altered regional military strategy, creating a new escalation ladder with global implications.
2. Enduring Jihadist Threat in Fragmented States. The terrorist attack in Syria highlights the Islamic State’s ongoing influence in unstable regions.
3. Multipolar Competition and Internal Fragility. Geopolitical competition and domestic instability complicate Central Asian and Caucasian stabilisation.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Key Takeaways
• Middle East – Escalation and Fragmentation
  • Israeli-Iranian Armed Confrontation
  • The Resurgence of Terrorism in Syria
• Central Asia – Balancing Regional Interests
  • Geopolitical Reverberations from the Middle East
  • International Engagement and Regional Consolidation
• The Caucasus – Strategic Realignments and Domestic Fractures
  • Political Repression and Democratic Reversal
  • Geopolitical Competition and Strategic Reorientation.
• Conclusion and Outlook
• Sources
• About SpecialEurasia