Executive Summary
This report analyses the implications of recent US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, undertaken in full coordination with Israel.
These strikes represent a significant escalation of the Israeli-Iranian conflict, increasing the likelihood of wider regional conflict.
Despite the unclear extent of damage, the US has confirmed its use of bunker-busting weapons against key nuclear facilities in Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. Tehran has directly threatened retaliation against US interests in the area, potentially disrupting crucial shipping lanes.
The ongoing conflict seriously threatens global energy markets, international trade, and regional stability, especially in the Persian Gulf and Red Sea.
Key Takeaways
- The US has bombed three key Iranian nuclear sites in a coordinated move with Israel, marking a significant escalation in the conflict.
- Tehran has threatened retaliatory strikes on US regional military bases and disruption of key maritime routes, including the Strait of Hormuz.
- The intensifying hostilities are likely to affect global oil markets, maritime security in the Red Sea, and the strategic balance across the Middle East.
Background Information
On 13 June, 2025, Israel started a surprise air offensive against multiple Iranian military and nuclear facilities. The aim was to neutralise Tehran’s nuclear capabilities, which Tel Aviv claimed were on the verge of producing weapons. Iran retaliated with a massive barrage of hundreds of rockets and drones aimed at Israel. The reciprocal strikes have continued for over a week.
On 21 June, 2025, US President Donald Trump announced US forces had bombed three Iranian nuclear facilities: Fordo, Natanz, and Isfahan. The strikes employed GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOPs), targeting deeply buried sites. Only this class of ordnance could previously reach Fordo, the most fortified of the three.
Washington clarified the attacks were not part of a plan to change the Iranian regime, and that they had diplomatically informed Tehran of this. Iran has warned of “irreparable damage” and promised retaliation. Reports indicate over 200 Iranian casualties and over 1,200 wounded since the start of hostilities.
Increased Israeli security measures have led to the closure of schools and businesses. The country is preparing for potential retaliatory strikes by Iran or its regional proxies.
Geopolitical Scenario
- Regional Geopolitics and US Involvement. Multiple power projections from the United States, Iran, Israel, and other state and non-state actors converge in the strategically unstable Middle East, creating friction over geopolitical and sectarian interests. Washington maintains approximately 50,000 troops across 19 bases in Middle Eastern countries, including Bahrain, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and the UAE. Washington’s support of Tel Aviv puts it at odds with Tehran, even though the US claims to want to avoid long wars. The involvement of the United States, particularly through direct airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure, signals a significant shift in Washington’s posture. It also increases the likelihood of sustained Iranian retaliation against US personnel, assets, and allies in the region. These developments could escalate the conflict beyond Israel and Iran.
- Strait of Hormuz and Trade Vulnerabilities. Iran has repeatedly threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz if the US or Israel attacks it. The strait is a critical global shipping corridor through which approximately 30% of the world’s seaborne oil passes. Any disruption, even a partial one, to global energy markets would significantly affect insurance premiums, causing costlier and less efficient rerouting of oil. If Iran tries to militarise the strait, regional navies will respond immediately, and this could cause direct conflict with the US Fifth Fleet in Bahrain. This would probably lead to a surge in oil prices, global supply chain disruptions, and significant instability in maritime logistics.
- Red Sea and Houthi Threats. As tensions rise between Israel and Iran, Houthi in Yemen might intensify their attacks on ships in the Red Sea. These operations, often involving drones and missile strikes, have led to the rerouting of maritime traffic around the Cape of Good Hope. Another crucial chokepoint, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, is experiencing growing instability. Continued Houthi attacks might disrupt Red Sea shipping, raise costs for global logistics companies, and undermine the strategic impact of Western naval forces in the region. These developments compound pressure on energy and commodity markets already strained by the threats to the Strait of Hormuz. The US is thus facing simultaneous maritime threats in two strategic waterways. These developments restrict operational flexibility, necessitate greater naval presence, and heighten the risk of multi-theatre conflicts with political and economic consequences.
Conclusion
US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites have escalated the Israeli-Iranian conflict into a regional crisis with worldwide consequences. Tehran’s announced plans for retaliation against US targets, coupled with its ability to disrupt crucial shipping lanes, increasingly threatens global energy and trade.
Despite a reduction in Iran’s military capacity, its asymmetric and regional influence persists, especially through proxy networks like the Houthis. The likelihood of sustained regional escalation remains high, especially given the US military footprint and Iran’s strategic calculations. This conflict presents significant geopolitical and economic risks, especially in the areas of energy, shipping, and security, causing ongoing monitoring and readiness for unforeseen circumstances.
Stakeholders in government, defence, logistics, and energy should expect further instability in the Middle East and prepare for potential escalation scenarios, including shipping route disruptions, oil price volatility, and the expansion of military engagement zones.
