Executive Summary
This report assesses the June 13, 2025, Israeli-Iranian military conflict, analysing key operational events, identified defence weaknesses, and increased geopolitical risks.
Israel started extensive strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, military leadership, and strategic infrastructure. Iran launched a massive ballistic missile attack on Israeli cities and military bases, showcasing its precise intelligence on Israeli targets.
The conflict revealed major flaws in both nations’ defences and skyrocketed regional tensions. The ongoing fighting raises the risk of a wider regional war, possibly involving outside powers. This report details the immediate security threats and the growing danger of further escalation in the Middle East.
Key Takeaways
- Israel conducted extensive strikes on Iranian nuclear sites, military leadership, and strategic targets.
- Iran launched hundreds of ballistic missiles in retaliation, striking Israeli cities and military installations.
- Regional geopolitical risk has increased since Israel’s military action resulted in a declaration of war against Iran.
Situational Awareness
On June 13, 2025, Israel started an unprecedented series of military strikes against Iran. The strikes targeted several locations, including uranium enrichment facilities, missile sites, and command centres in Tehran and elsewhere. The dead included Major General Mohammad Baqeri, Hossein Salami, and Gholamali Rashid, as well as Brigadier General Amirali Hajizadeh. Iran also reported the death of senior nuclear scientist Mohammad Mahdi Tehranchi. Images show widespread destruction in and around Tehran, with many civilian casualties.
Following the Israeli assault, Iran immediately launched a wave of ballistic missile attacks targeting Israel. Hundreds of missiles overwhelmed Israel’s air defences, hitting military and government targets in Tel Aviv, Jerusalem, and other strategic areas.
Despite Israeli air defences intercepting the incoming attacks, videos show some missiles broke through, causing substantial explosions within Israel. Among the targets hit were the Israeli Ministry of Defence headquarters and several air defence batteries.
Prime Minister Netanyahu announced that military operations in the coming days would continue, signalling a prolonged campaign. Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, publicly condemned Israel, predicting a grim future and promising ongoing retaliation. The Iranian leadership swiftly appointed new military commanders following the assassinations of its senior officers.
The United States officially denied direct involvement in Israel’s offensive but confirmed prior knowledge. During the day, Iran immediately requested an emergency UN Security Council meeting, denouncing the strikes as “blatant aggression” and vowing a “crushing” response. Before this night’s massive attack, within hours after the Israeli strikes, Tehran launched over 100 drones in retaliation, intercepted beyond Israeli territory, with some intruding into Jordanian and Iraqi airspace.
Armenia condemned the strike, urged an immediate cessation of hostilities, and called for adherence to international norms. Saudi Arabia denounced the strikes as a “heinous” violation of sovereignty and international law. China, through Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lin Jian, voiced deep concern over escalation and signaled readiness to promote stability. The Chinese Embassy in Iran and in Israel also issued safety advisories for nationals. Russia emphasised risks to global security and cautioned against regional spill‑over. Azerbaijan’s foreign ministry voiced concern, urging restraint and immediate dialogue to prevent wider conflict.
Strategic Implications
- Rising Geopolitical Risk. Escalating military exchanges between Israel and Iran dramatically increases geopolitical risks in the Middle East. Both nations possess the capacity and the intent to conduct widespread, direct assaults on one another’s soil. This situation raises the risk of prolonged military conflict, drawing on regional alliances and outside powers.
- Israeli Security Exposure. Tehran’s ability to overwhelm Israeli air defences with a barrage of hundreds of ballistic missiles underscores significant vulnerabilities in Tel Aviv’s defence network. Precise Iranian strikes on Israeli military and government sites show Tehran has highly detailed intelligence on Israeli infrastructure. This development poses a significant threat to Israel’s long-term security and the safety of its key resources.
- Iranian Defence Weakness. Israel’s ability to conduct precision strikes deep into Iranian territory, including the elimination of senior IRGC leadership and key nuclear scientists, exposes serious deficiencies in Iran’s defensive capabilities. Failing to prevent the Israeli assault on critical nuclear and military sites underlines significant gaps in Tehran’s early warning systems, air defence, and protection of its high-ranking command.
- Impact on National Stability. Both nations now face immediate security challenges. Israel faces the threat of further missile attacks and increasing domestic pressure to bolster its air defences. Iran needs to resolve the instability resulting from the deaths of its top military leaders and the vulnerability of its nuclear program to foreign assault. The mutual exposure of defensive weaknesses creates a fragile environment prone to further escalation.
- Further Military Escalation. Israel might respond to Iranian military retaliation by further striking Tehran’s military sites, especially those related to ballistic missile operations and air defence, thus increasing the hostilities.
- Intelligence Warfare Advancement. The nature of the attacks confirms an intensifying intelligence war between the two states. Tehran’s access to Israeli intelligence and Israel’s ability to target key Iranian sites show a concerning level of reciprocal espionage. This mutual intelligence exposure amplifies strategic uncertainty and increases the probability of pre-emptive actions.
Last Update Friday, 13 June 2025 – 10.00 pm CET
