Executive Summary
This report assesses the ongoing Israel-Iran conflict and the possible US involvement after the recent words of Donald Trump. The conflict has rapidly intensified, leading to significant casualties and drawing global attention at the G7 summit.
This analysis evaluates the operational developments, the international diplomatic responses from the United States, and the wider strategic consequences. It also outlines US involvement’s potential risk in the conflict and the geopolitical ramifications for regional and international stability.
Key Takeaways
- A US military involvement in the Iran–Israel conflict will increase the regional geopolitical risk and threaten Western countries.
- The United States might face internal and external pressures over potential military intervention to support Israel.
- G7 leaders remain divided on a unified response, though European actors support a ceasefire and renewed diplomatic dialogue with Tehran.
Background Information
On June 13, 2025, Israel launched a series of targeted airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, including an enrichment facility. The strikes killed senior IRGC personnel and led to over 220 Iranian casualties. Iran responded with missile and drone attacks targeting central Israel, resulting in 13 Israeli fatalities and hundreds of injuries.
Discussions at the Canadian G7 summit centred on the conflict. President Trump departed the summit prematurely to handle the crisis, resulting in the cancellation of several planned bilateral meetings, including one with Ukraine’s president. He ordered his national security team to meet in Washington to consider diplomatic options with Iran. By using his social media account, Trump publicly urged the evacuation of Tehran.
Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni met with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer to emphasise the need to resume negotiations with Iran and to prevent its acquisition of nuclear weapons. European leaders backed a ceasefire proposal addressing both the Iran-Israel conflict and the Gaza situation.
Although Canada advocated for a balanced joint declaration on de-escalation, the Trump administration’s stance remained unclear. Wider G7 discussions addressed also the migration issue, mineral resources, and WTO reform, though the Middle East crisis overshadowed proceedings.
Geopolitical Scenario
The military conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a highly volatile phase, with the potential to develop into a broader regional confrontation. The accuracy and scope of Israeli attacks suggest they aim to weaken Iran’s military and strategic potential. Iran’s retaliation shows both operational capacity and political will, including direct authorisation from the highest levels of leadership.
The United States faces a dilemma: while politically aligned with Tel Aviv, Washington must consider the consequences of direct intervention. Given the presence of roughly 50,000 US troops at 19 Middle Eastern military bases, an attack on Iran risks major retaliation. This action could worsen anti-American feelings, give jihadists more propaganda, and possibly lead to violent attacks on US and Western targets.
The premature departure of President Trump from the G7 summit reflects the urgency attributed to this crisis. His administration’s handling of conflicts in Ukraine and Gaza has damaged US credibility. Internally, military engagement in Iran could damage Trump’s domestic support, particularly in the event of US casualties because of the Iranian retaliation.
Moreover, US military intervention in Tehran could jeopardise its standing in the Middle East and the broader Arab-Muslim world, creating opportunities for other global powers like Russia and China.
European actors, most notably Italy, Germany, and the UK, have shown cohesion in pushing for diplomacy, arms control, and a ceasefire. Their influence is limited without US alignment.
The conflict is also contributing to broader geopolitical instability. Chinese authorities have advised their citizens to leave Israel, showing the global ramifications of the confrontation. East-West tensions could escalate, particularly if the West overreacts militarily to Iran’s actions.
Conclusion
The escalating Israeli-Iranian conflict poses a serious security threat to regional and global stability. The high death toll, military losses, and involvement of prominent leaders highlight the crisis’s severity. Although the United States can still affect events, intervention could worsen regional conflict, trigger anti-Western violence, and cause a domestic political crisis.
European actors have coalesced around a diplomatic approach, aiming to contain the conflict and resume dialogue with Tehran. However, divergent US positions and the lack of cohesive international leadership have limited the effectiveness of these efforts.
The next few days will be crucial in determining whether diplomacy can stabilize the situation or if it escalates into wider regional conflict.
