Executive Summary

This report analyses the current state and plans for Russia-Kazakhstan economic cooperation, as discussed at the 2025 St. Petersburg International Economic Forum’s business dialogue.

It aims to identify key economic indicators, assess risks, and outline the strategic implications of the bilateral relationship within the framework of regional integration.

Key Takeaways

1. Russian direct investment in Kazakhstan surged to $4 billion in 2024, reflecting a strategic deepening of economic ties.
2. Industrial cooperation and technological localisation remain the centrepiece of bilateral economic planning.
3. New financial tools and joint project mechanisms actively support structural integration through the EAEU.

Background Information

On June 18, 2025, the Russia–Kazakhstan business dialogue held at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum (SPIEF) 2025 convened high-ranking officials, institutional representatives, and private sector leaders to examine prospects for bilateral economic cooperation.

Vladimir Padalko, Vice President of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, moderated the session. Key speakers included Dauren Abaev, Ambassador of Kazakhstan to Russia, who outlined strategic investment priorities, and Goar Barsegyan, Minister of Industry and Agro-Industrial Complex of the Eurasian Economic Commission, who addressed regional integration mechanisms. Business council representatives and financial institutions also contributed, showcasing current projects and investment patterns.

The business dialogue highlighted that the two countries experienced solid industrial and investment performance in 2024.

Both Kazakhstan (2.7%) and Russia (4.6%) saw economic growth fuelled by increased industrial output and greater manufacturing credit, even with high interest rates.

Russia was among the top five foreign investors in Kazakhstan, with bilateral investment projects exceeding $48 billion across 170 initiatives. Trade volumes continued to benefit from regional economic integration under the EAEU. The 32% surge in Russian investment from the previous year underscores the deepening financial interdependence. Observers emphasised Kazakhstan’s appealing environment for foreign financial firms, citing swift digital adoption and transparent regulations.

VTB Kazakhstan and other financial market participants highlighted efficient operations and predictable regulations as beneficial. The Moscow Export Centre noted Kazakhstan receives over 21% of Moscow’s foreign exports, highlighting Kazakhstan’s importance for Russian exporters. In 2024, export volumes from Moscow to Kazakhstan grew by over 16%.

Sector-Specific Analysis

• Industrial Production and Machinery. Industrial cooperation focuses on machine-building and rail manufacturing. Joint projects in agricultural machinery and railway equipment show strategic collaboration. The government prioritised sectors such as metallurgy and petrochemicals, particularly Sibur’s polyethylene plant in Kazakhstan’s special economic zone. The EAEU financial integration tool is already supporting selected joint projects in these areas.
• Mining and Critical Raw Materials. Astana is expanding its geological exploration programmes. Geological exploration programs in Kazakhstan have identified thirty-eight rare earth element sites, presenting new opportunities for joint ventures in critical mineral extraction.
• Agri-industrial Complex. Kazakh and Russian representatives highlighted agribusiness cooperation as a strategic opportunity, given that global food insecurity affects 2 billion people. The speakers highlighted prospects in horticulture, livestock, crop production, and aquaculture. Initiatives discussed include trilateral agricultural projects and value-chain integration under EAEU support structures.
• Transport and Logistics. Logistics infrastructure was a recurring theme. Moscow and Astana are advancing joint development of the North–South transport corridor and China–EAEU trade routes. Key hubs include Khorgos and Aktau. The Seljatino logistics centre (Russia–Kazakhstan–China project) achieved a record of 596 containers processed daily and is targeting 30 train arrivals monthly. Logistics remains a high-return domain for Russian-Kazakh cooperation.
• Digital and Financial Infrastructure. Observers acknowledged Kazakhstan’s rapid digitalisation as a strength. Foreign investors benefit from the operational and legal advantages provided by the nation’s support systems, such as investment councils, special economic zones, and British-law-based jurisdictions like the Astana International Financial Centre. Financial tools and joint support offices will facilitate capital inflows and SME cooperation.
• Tourism. Kazakhstan promotes clusters including the Almaty mountain zone, Mangystau resorts, and the Burabay national park as potential areas for tourism partnership and Russian investment.

Geopolitical and Strategic Impact

Despite persistent geopolitical uncertainty, the Russia-Kazakhstan economic partnership remains resilient and strategically focused. Both nations leverage the EAEU’s framework to protect and promote economic objectives. The current geopolitical landscape favours collaborative industrial strategies, integrated energy systems, and independent logistics.

Stronger trade ties with China and joint investment in processing crucial raw materials show a united front against global economic pressures. Both states see partnerships between industry and agriculture as key to economic stability and security.

Joint support institutions and collaborative national economic projects show a strategic strengthening of bilateral ties that transcend short-term market fluctuations. This institutional cooperation is crucial in offsetting risks stemming from global volatility and sanctions regimes affecting regional trade.

Conclusion

Moscow and Astana are actively strengthening their economic partnership through direct investment, industrial collaboration, and institutional alignment under the EAEU. Key growth sectors include machine-building, petrochemicals, agriculture, mining, and logistics.

Financial support mechanisms and digital infrastructure enhancements provide a conducive environment for further engagement. Strategic coordination is evident in responses to geopolitical risk and market challenges.