Executive Summary
This report aims to analyse the intersection between the Uzbek and the Tajiks, which we can consider among the most influential ethnic jihadist groups in Central Asia.
Drawing on publications, researches related to this subject and recent events, the contribution highlights the common brutality and also the cooperation between them, in order to elaborate appropriate securitarian and de-radicalisation strategies for both countries.
Background Information
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan have always been two countries related to each other, despite the ongoing tensions because of the sovereignty of the current Uzbek cities Bukhara and Samarqand. Those are two cities inhabited most by Tajik-speaking people rather than the majority spoken and ethnic Uzbek population.
In contemporary history, after the independence from the USSR, both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan had supported two antagonist factions in their common and unstable neighbour: Afghanistan. More specifically, they had sponsored their corresponding ethnic factions in the country.
At the beginning of the Civil War in Afghanistan, those two factions – the one led by Abdul Rashid Dustom and the one led by Ahmad Shah Massoud – opposed each other; after some time, they had aligned their interests against the Pashtun-group of the Taliban. Therefore, despite recent contrasts, both countries share not only the same cultural background, but especially the same geopolitical ambitions and, i.e., they might share the same security problems. Their main one is the spread of global jihadism within and beyond their national borders.
This phenomenon is only the most recent chapter in a long and complex history, characterised by a long-standing tradition of tolerance and flexibility, as shown by Ahmed Rashid in his Jihad. The Raise of Militant Islam in Central Asia. This legacy dates to the Soviet era, in which Moscow and the new national governments had imposed a secular and authoritarian approach towards the populations. The oppression and alienation had created the perfect environment for the birth and the creation of several groups that during the ‘90s brought bloodshed and instability throughout the country and beyond. Most of the notorious groups were located in both Tajikistan and Uzbekistan (especially in the Fergana Valley) and they would have brought instability and chaos to both countries. Besides that, both Uzbek and Tajik people will represent one of the most violent ethnicities known in the jihadist galaxy.
Analysis
One can trace the deep connection between Uzbek and Tajik jihadist groups to the civil war in Tajikistan between 1992 and 1997. The year before the burst of hostilities, in 1991, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) was founded in the town of Namangan, which is in the northern side of the Fergana Valley. This town is on the Uzbek side of the valley, because it borders with Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan and it used to be one of the poorest and most violent regions of the country, therefore it was easy for the Islamists to impose their control on this area.
As time went by, this place would have become the hub for all Central Asian terrorists or for all the fighters who were in the region, and they were seeking a safe place. However, during the Civil War Uzbek Islamists fought with the United Tajik Opposition, the Islamist Tajik group, although they were less conservative than the Uzbeks. However, at the end of the hostilities in the country, some fighters had moved to Afghanistan and Pakistan, and the rest of them had stayed in both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan.
Uzbek and Tajiks formed one of the most lethal combinations in the entire history of jihadism during the Tajik Civil War, capable of destabilising not only their respective countries but also a region extending from Afghanistan and Pakistan to the Levant and Europe. Regarding this last part, it can be argued that under the protection and the influence of Taliban that the IMU developed an international agenda rather than a local one.
Following the 9/11 attacks and the US invasion of Afghanistan, the Uzbek group established a new hub in North Waziristan, Pakistan, where their fighters honed their military skills. The peak of the globalisation of the Central Asian jihadist agenda is the creation of the Islamic State Khorasan Wilayat (ISKP), whose purpose is the re-creation of the Islamic province of Khorasan in its historical territories. Thus, it represents a regional threat to the stability of the countries in a region that goes from the Islamic Republic of Iran to Afghanistan and from Turkmenistan to Uzbekistan.
The composition of its core and most aggressive members, predominantly Tajiks, is not coincidental, supported by evidence from recent attacks (e.g., the 2024 Moscow concert hall attack). This mirrors the 1990s, with Tajikistan still facing significant poverty and unemployment. This poverty pushes many people to emigrate; therefore, most of the Tajiks have to cope with difficulties like: uprooting, racism, cramped living conditions and low-pay.
The Tajiks who joined the ISKP are easily comparable to the Uzbek foreign fighters who joined the Syrian jihad at the beginning of the civil war, creating the Katibat Imam al-Bukhari and the Katibat al Tawhid Wal-Jihad. For example, sources report that these fighters have talented skills, unlike the other fighters from Arab countries or Turkey.
Conclusion
Unlike their neighbours (except for Afghanistan), Uzbekistan and Tajikistan are now living the fear of Islamic terrorism. Moreover, particularly in Dushanbe, the selected method of eradication has been the suppression of any demonstration of commitment to the Islamic faith. As an example, individuals with even minimal experience in Muslim countries will observe that, in Uzbekistan, the adhan (Islamic call to prayer) is seldom audible.
The experience during the Soviet time and the ‘90s shows that repression alone cannot eradicate radicalisation. A sustainable approach requires both recognition of the role of Islamic tradition in society and genuine cooperation on sensitive areas such as the Fergana Valley. The adoption of this perspective demands the commitment of all Central Asian countries to secure stability in an area that plays a strategic role on the Eurasian geopolitical chessboard.
Disclaimer. SpecialEurasia does not endorse or assume responsibility for any statements, analyses, or conclusions presented within this report, which reflect the assessments and interpretations of the author(s) alone.
