Executive Summary
This report analyses the implications and reasons of Russia’s statement regarding the presence of 23,000 international terrorists and militants in Afghanistan.
Despite officially acknowledging the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in July 2025, Moscow, as stated by Sergei Shoigu, has voiced its worries about the security and stability within the country under the Taliban’s rule.
The report investigates the terrorist threats in Afghanistan and the implications for the increasing Russian involvement in the country’s domestic and economic dynamics.
Key Takeaways
- Afghanistan continues to host around 23,000 international terrorists linked to different groups, including Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP).
- The Taliban’s struggle to contain terrorism limits its credibility abroad and constrains the benefits of international recognition.
- Russia frames the West as responsible for Afghanistan’s situation but simultaneously highlights terrorism as the major obstacle to recovery.
Background Information
On August 31, 2021, the withdrawal of United States and NATO forces concluded a twenty-year military presence in Afghanistan. The US troops’ withdrawal from Afghanistan allowed the Taliban to take power in Kabul and re-establish the Islamic Emirate.
Simultaneously, without the US and Western presence in the Afghan territory, August 2021 marked the beginning of a “new geopolitical game” in Afghanistan, and in Eurasia, which involved regional and international power.
The Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, Sergei Shoigu, underlined in an interview that terrorism remains the most acute problem in Afghanistan. He stressed that around twenty international organisations are active, with approximately 23,000 fighters on Afghan soil. Russian forces and international actors consider the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP) the most threatening, as it operates from bases in the eastern and northern regions. Shoigu also mentioned that Western sanctions on the Taliban undermine their capacity to combat terrorism effectively.
On July 3, 2025, Russia officially recognised the Taliban government. This step followed prior interactions, such as inviting Taliban members to Russian forums, delisting them from Moscow’s terrorist list in April 2025, and conducting bilateral talks in Kabul in November 2024. Russia announced it would work with Afghanistan on trade, fighting terrorism, and stopping illegal drugs.
Shoigu also highlighted narcotics as a secondary but linked threat. Under Taliban enforcement, poppy cultivation fell sharply between 2022 and 2023, yet synthetic opioids and methamphetamine production increased, complicating the fight against drug trafficking.
Geopolitical Scenario
The ongoing threat of terrorism poses the biggest challenge to Afghanistan’s recovery and its interactions with the world. According to Russian assessments, around 23,000 militants remain active across the country. This includes ISKP, Al-Qaeda-linked elements, and regional jihadist networks. Their ongoing presence weakens the Taliban’s power and shows how little control Kabul has outside the major cities.
ISKP presents the most direct threat to both Afghanistan and neighbouring states. Operating primarily in the eastern and northern provinces, it uses propaganda and direct assaults to target Afghan security personnel, civilians, and neighbouring countries. Its resilience prevents the Taliban from presenting themselves as guarantors of stability. The presence of ISKP intensifies worries about terrorism, recruitment, and smuggling activities that could cross borders and impact Russia and Central Asia’s security.
The Taliban additionally face residual armed opposition from the National Resistance Front of Afghanistan. Despite being smaller and less organised than the Northern Alliance from the 1990s, these factions still pose a threat to the Taliban’s rule in some regions. Their survival underscores Kabul’s incomplete consolidation of power.
Terrorism complicates Afghanistan’s external relations. Nations might interact with Kabul for pragmatic reasons, but formal recognition of Afghanistan could be problematic if extremist groups can act freely. The Taliban’s standing on the global stage hinges on persuading nearby countries that they can manage, eliminate, or at least limit the influence of groups such as ISKP. Russia, while acknowledging Kabul, keeps focusing on terrorism as the most significant threat hindering Afghanistan’s recovery.
Economically, insecurity discourages investment and obstructs trade. Businesses will likely hesitate to work in Afghanistan unless they are certain they will be safe from terrorist attacks. This issue, combined with the Taliban’s governance issues, restricted funds, and sanctions, results in a situation where recognition offers little short-term help.
For Russia, terrorism is both a justification for deeper involvement in Afghanistan and a constraint on its ambitions. Moscow argues Western sanctions prevent Kabul from fighting militants effectively, while concurrently highlighting the threat to justify closer security cooperation. Central Asian states remain divided: some fear that Russian engagement with the Taliban will embolden militancy along their borders, while others are capitalising the momentum by expanding their logistic and trade cooperation with the Taliban.
Indicators to Monitor
- Local sources and reports confirming ISKP and other militants operating in Afghanistan.
- Taliban operations against ISKP and evidence of sustained successes or failures.
- Frequency of terrorist attacks in Afghan urban centres and against neighbouring states.
- Shifts in Taliban control in northern provinces where resistance groups remain active.
- Central Asian security responses, particularly in Tajikistan, regarding cross-border militancy.
- Russian or Afghan announcements of joint security or intelligence-sharing initiatives.
Conclusion
Terrorism remains the central barrier to Afghanistan’s stability. According to Russian reports, approximately 23,000 militants associated with international groups are actively present throughout the nation, weakening the Taliban’s control and jeopardising the stability of the region. As ISKP continues to expand its activities, resistance groups in the north further weaken Kabul’s control.
Russia’s recognition of the Taliban provides political symbolism and new channels for cooperation, but these gains are limited by Afghanistan’s inability to secure its territory. Economic development and sustained international engagement cannot progress until they effectively reduce terrorism. The terrorist threat in Moscow supports more involvement in Afghan affairs; however, it reveals the limits of what can be achieved through recognition alone.
