Executive Summary

This report examines recent developments in Dagestan, focusing on security operations, public policy initiatives, and strategic infrastructure projects.

The report highlights the strategic approaches adopted by both Russian federal authorities and local governance structures in the management and development of the Republic of Dagestan.

Emphasis is placed on Dagestan’s geopolitical significance, stemming from its strategic location in the North Caucasus and proximity to the Caspian Sea, as well as the complex socio-political and security challenges that render the region a critical focal point within broader regional dynamics.

Key Takeaways

1. Local governments are strengthening support for veterans and their families of the Special Military Operation, a Kremlin move to shore up support at home.
2. Transport-logistics infrastructure initiative in Dagestan is progressing rapidly, positioning the republic as a strategic Eurasian transit hub.
3. Continued low-intensity insurgency and police actions in the region’s less developed districts reveal persistent security weaknesses.

Background Information

On June 30, 2025, in  the House of Freidnship of Makhachkala, local authorities organised the 2^nd Conference of the Special’naja voennaja operacija – SVO (Russian term to indicate the military activities in the Ukraine conflict) titled “Heroes of Our Time!”.

The Head of Dagestan Sergey Melikov, heads of municipalities and departments of the republic, military personnel and their families, heads of government bodies and public organisations attended the event. The conference aimed to improve support services for SVO participants and their families.

Simultaneously, state and local media stressed Dagestan’s economic strategy and transport-logistics cluster development, signalling major investment in the North Caucasian republic’s development.

Parallel to these civic-economic initiatives, regional authorities maintain counterterror measures to suppress militant enclaves and prevent destabilising violence.

Geopolitical Assessment

Dagestan sits at the confluence of several strategic dynamics. Moscow’s push to accelerate transport and logistics in the North Caucasus shows a deliberate effort to connect the region to broader Eurasian trade, lessening dependence on the West and building economic strength against geopolitical challenges. Local leaders follow federal guidelines, using infrastructure improvements to reduce regional dissatisfaction and strengthen central control.

By intensifying outreach to SVO participants, the state seems to pursue a twofold strategy: promoting internal cohesion through incentives and mitigating any dissent among veterans returning home. These measures aim to stabilise the domestic front, especially in a region marked by complex ethno-confessional identities and historical tensions.

Security threats persist along the republic’s periphery. Militant groups in remote areas still represent a threat, requiring ongoing security operations. Despite increasing security measures and military operations targeting these groups, underlying issues like socioeconomic inequality, extremist ideologies, and porous borders remain unresolved. Spillover effects from adjacent republics or foreign influences remain a possibility.

State-led development and sociocultural dynamics interact, further complicating the strategic environment. The lack of local input or perceived inequitable distribution of benefits in large infrastructure projects can fuel community unrest.

The federal government wants to use Dagestan’s location on the Caspian Sea to improve transport links with Iran and Central Asia. Regional officials, while cooperative, remain cautious about excessive centralisation that could weaken local control. External forces or local militants might exploit this weakness and destabilise the region with targeted attacks.

In context, Dagestan emerges as a microcosm of Moscow’s broader challenge: combining economic modernisation, socio-political stability, and domestic legitimacy while managing latent insurgency. The success of infrastructure and social programs depends on aligning federal guidelines with local needs and suppressing militant action without worsening existing grievances.

Outlook

Expect continued federal investment in Dagestan’s transport-logistics infrastructure in the coming years. These advances will strengthen economic ties across the Caspian and Eurasian regions, but success requires inclusive local governance to prevent potential backlash.

Support systems for SVO participants will continue, building social bonds and bolstering the state’s authority. However, their effectiveness in addressing veteran reintegration challenges remains unclear.

Security operations targeting militant enclaves might continue to target specific areas. Absent meaningful socio-economic engagement or ideological rehabilitation, insurgent activity may persist episodically, maintaining a security drain on regional resources.

Strategically, Dagestan will continue to serve as a pivot point for Moscow’s regional connectivity ambitions, as well as an arena for demonstrating federal control. Successful policy implementation requires integrating strategic infrastructure plans with Dagestan’s social realities, ensuring that infrastructure development strengthens, rather than weakens, the region’s complex socio-political fabric.