Executive Summary

This report analyses Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Yerevan, examining the strategic messaging underpinning Moscow’s diplomatic posture towards Armenia and the broader South Caucasus.

The report shows that Russia is actively working to lessen European Union’s involvement in the region, while showing a softer line on the United States after possibly the recent phone call between Presidents Putin and Trump.

This report analyses the foreign policies and strategies of both Moscow and Yerevan by reviewing statements from Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia is intensifying efforts to preserve its strategic influence in Armenia amid Yerevan’s increasing engagement with the European Union.
2. Lavrov launched a pointed critique of the EU’s “hostile” approach while refraining from direct criticism of the United States, signalling a tactical shift.
3. Although Armenia has balanced its foreign strategy in the last years, Lavrov’s visit marks a pivot event in the country’s dynamics.

Background Information

On May 20-21, 2025, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov visited Yerevan for the first time in several years. During his stay, Lavrov met with Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan, the Armenia Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, and the Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan.

Strained Armenian-Russian relations, marked by Yerevan’s frozen participation inside the CSTO and public outcry against Moscow’s response (or lack thereof) to the 2023 Azerbaijani offensive in Nagorno-Karabakh, formed the backdrop for Lavrov’s visit to Armenia (May 20-21, 2025). Concurrently, Yerevan has expanded diplomatic, economic, and military dialogues with France, the EU, and other Western actors, raising concerns in Moscow.

Lavrov visited also the local Russia House (Rossotrudnichestvo), also known as the Russian Center for Science and Culture. This institution organised in 2024 over 550 cultural events attended by over 40 thousand people. The Kremlin is underway to open three more branches of the Russian House in Armenia in Gyumri – in Vanadzor, Ijevan, and Kapan, confirming the role that the Rossotrudnichestvo plays in deepening the Russian-Armenian cultural ties.

Lavrov-Mirzoyan’s Press Conference: Main Narratives

Regarding Lavrov’s visit to Yerevan, the joint press conference that the parties attended provides the key narratives useful to understand Russia and Armenia’s national priorities, shape regional perceptions, and influence international discourse

Sergey Lavrov:

• High-level diplomatic engagement, economic cooperation, and regional integration efforts such as the Eurasian Economic Union and the 3+3 platform stress Russia’s unwavering commitment to strengthening bilateral relations with Armenia, positioning Moscow as a pivotal regional partner.
• Lavrov criticises Western-led security architectures, portraying them as ineffective and biased, and advocates for a multipolar, inclusive security framework grounded in regional cooperation and international law.
• Moscow evaluates its military presence in Armenia as fundamental, reaffirming support for Yerevan’ security needs and advocating for the respect of existing agreements on Nagorno-Karabakh, while promoting dialogue and mutual understanding among regional actors.

Ararat Mirzoyan

• Armenia carefully balances its foreign policy, aiming to strengthen ties with the European Union economically and politically while preserving strong relationships with Russia and regional organisations such as the CSTO and the Eurasian Economic Union.
• Yerevan is actively working to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh question through dialogue, emphasising respect for Armenia’s territorial integrity and self-determination, while condemning outside interference and double standards that obstruct peace.

Geopolitical Scenario

Lavrov’s remarks and public appearances in Yerevan served dual purposes: reaffirming Russia’s historical alliance with Armenia while issuing warnings about the consequences of aligning with “hostile” Western powers.

He sharply criticised France and the European Union, accusing them of pursuing a destabilising, anti-Russian agenda in the Caucasus. This aligns with Moscow’s broader narrative, portraying EU engagement as a vehicle for political subversion.

However, the soft criticism of Washington, coupled with Lavrov’s silence on recent United States-Armenia communications, points to a deliberate strategy of restraint. The Kremlin’s renewed diplomacy with the more accommodating Trump administration may indicate a selective willingness from Moscow to re-engage with US influence, especially in regions such as the Caucasus.

Foreign Minister Mirzoyan promoted Armenia’s “Crossroads of Peace” initiative, aimed at regional connectivity and economic development, as a neutral platform. However, it effectively legitimises the EU’s economic footprint while reducing dependency on Russian-led formats as the CSTO or EAEU.

Conclusion

Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to Yerevan underscores Moscow’s persistent efforts to maintain and reinforce its strategic influence in Armenia and the South Caucasus, which are still part of Moscow’s blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and lebensraum (vital space).

In the short term, Russia may increase efforts to undermine Western influence and strengthen its cultural and military presence in Armenia, perhaps through more Russian-led projects and infrastructure development. In the meantime, Armenia would maintain its delicate balancing act in diplomacy; it will seek economic benefits from the EU and Western allies without compromising its security relationship with Moscow.

In the medium term, Russia’s influence will persist, but Armenia’s ties with the West could strengthen, fostering either cooperation or competition within the region, depending on geopolitical shifts. Moscow will remain vigilant against Western encroachment, framing EU and NATO activities as threats to regional stability, while selectively engaging with US initiatives to keep strategic flexibility.

*Cover image: Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov (Credits:mid.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)