Executive Summary

This report examines the growing strategic significance of the Organisation of Turkic States (OTS) in current economic and political changes in Central Asia, with an emphasis on the initiatives presented at the April 2025 conferences in Tashkent and diplomatic forum Antalya.

The OTS is strategically establishing itself as a unified economic entity, fostering intra-regional commerce, infrastructure development, and digital connectivity, while concurrently promoting Ankara’s geopolitical objectives.

Turkey’s growing influence in the former Soviet Union is evident in its efforts to increase economic cooperation with Central Asian republics and create trade routes independent of Russia. The geopolitical implications of these developments are substantial, particularly regarding the strategic interests of Russia and China.

Key Takeaways

• The OTS has accelerated intra-regional trade and economic integration, aiming to become a more cohesive and independent economic bloc within Eurasia.
• Turkey is leveraging both economic initiatives and soft power institutions to reshape regional alliances and reduce Moscow’s and Beijing’s influence.
• Tashkent Conference organised in the last days accentuated Central Asian republics’ strategies and opportunities to increase trade with Turkey.

Background Information

Think tanks from the Turkic states met in Tashkent on April 11, 2025. Uzbek and Turkish institutions led the agenda, titled “Expanding Trade Potential among OTS Countries: Joint Research and Strategic Decisions,” focusing on enhancing economic integration via infrastructure projects, harmonisation of regulations, and investment mobilisation through the USD 600 million Turkic Investment Fund. Trade between OTS countries has grown markedly since 2016, reaching USD 58.17 billion in 2024, up from USD 38.3 billion in 2023.

Simultaneously, the Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF), held April 11-13, 2025, reinforced Ankara’s strategy of leveraging multilateral forums and ideological soft power to advance a multipolar world. The ADF’s high-level OTS reports showed the Turkic bloc’s political unity.

Geopolitical Scenario

Ankara’s broader regional strategy closely intertwines with the economic ambitions expressed during the Tashkent conference. Turkey aims to strengthen a shared Pan-Turkic identity in Central Asia, using their common language, culture, and history. Infrastructure projects underpins not solely these efforts, like the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway or the Middle Corridor, but also by the mobilisation of soft power via religious outreach and development programmes managed by institutions such as Diyanet and TIKA. This dual-track approach is reinforcing Turkey’s image as a regional leader and economic catalyst.

The OTS has become strategically important because of its energy resources and its potential to connect Europe and Asia economically and logistically. Improved coordination among member states on infrastructure, trade, and regulations is gradually lessening reliance on Russian transit routes and, to a smaller degree, Chinese funding. Central Asian states are tangibly recalibrating regional connectivity and shifting toward multi-vector foreign policies.

From Moscow’s perspective, the OTS’s strengthening, especially Ankara’s involvement, is an encroachment on its area of influence. Russian concern stems from the decline of its traditional dominance in its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) over transport corridors and the potential for ethnic tensions in countries like Kazakhstan, where the assertion of Turkic identity could alienate the sizeable ethnic Russian population. The Almaty Ministerial Meeting saw Russia reaffirm its Central Asian presence and commitment, a move influenced by the first EU-Central Asia summit and Turkey’s increasing regional involvement.

China, meanwhile, remains wary of Pan-Turkic sentiment, particularly because of its sensitivity regarding the Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region (XUAR). Even as the Belt and Road Initiative fosters economic ties with OTS countries, Beijing is showing increased concern over Ankara’s ideological impact on Central Asia. Emphasising Turkic identity and supporting Uighur rights could harm relations between China and Turkey, particularly if Turkey’s appeals to shared culture resonate with Central Asian Muslims.

In the long term, the OTS’s economic and strategic aims might impact the EU and the Gulf States. European actors might see OTS coordination as an alternative transport platform for energy and goods, if the organisation stays politically neutral. Alternatively, Gulf states with ambitions in Central Asia might perceive the OTS’s increased engagement as evidence of Turkey vying for power in a volatile political landscape.

Conclusion

Tashkent conference stressed the importance of the consolidation of the Organisation of Turkic States around shared economic and civilizational objectives. This eventuality might represent a substantive shift in Eurasian regional dynamics. Ankara’s pursuit of deeper strategic engagement in Central Asia, using infrastructure, soft power, and shared ideology, is causing a shift in the region’s geopolitical balance.

Several risk scenarios merit close monitoring in the future. Russia might use political pressure or secret influence if the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway opens quickly to regain control of Central Asian transport routes. Simultaneously, increased Turkish involvement in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan cultural and religious affairs could exacerbate existing ethnic tensions, especially given the fragility of secular governance and ethnic diversity in these nations.

Further deterioration of Ankara’s domestic political climate could lead to more aggressive foreign policy, leveraging the OTS for ideological and strategic aims. Such a move would probably attract sharper international attention and worsen relations with the EU and NATO, particularly if Turkey’s goals in Eurasia continue to conflict with those of the West.

SpecialEurasia OSINT Team

*Cover image: The flag of the Organisation of Turkic States (Credits: Organization of Turkic States, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)

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