Executive Summary

The first EU–Central Asia summit to be hosted in Uzbekistan on 4 April 2025 confirms a major European pivot toward a region now central to global affairs. With the United States stepping back from development efforts like USAID, Brussels is advancing its interests through diplomatic engagement, green cooperation, and strategic investments.

This report analyses the EU-Central Asia summit’s significance for Brussels’ strategy, highlighting Central Asia’s geopolitical rise and the European commitment to sustainable development and multilateralism.

Key Takeaways

• The EU–Central Asia summit demonstrates Brussels’ desire to lead sustainable development and multilateral dialogue in a region reshaped by declining U.S. engagement.
• Central Asia is emerging as a strategic hub in global geopolitics, underscored by both regional consolidation—such as the Khujand Declaration—and growing external competition.
• Central Asia is solidifying its position as a strategic hub in global geopolitics, as exemplified by regional agreements like the Khujand Declaration, marking a new era of cooperation and increased competition among major powers.

Background Information

On 4 April 2025, Uzbekistan hosts the high-level EU–Central Asia summit, a moment of strategic importance in the deepening relationship between Brussels and the five republics of the region. The summit, focused on security cooperation, energy partnerships, and regional development, coincides with the Samarkand Climate Forum, and this shows Europe’s interest in aligning diplomatic dialogue with sustainability goals.

This upcoming summit follows the 20^th EU–Central Asia Ministerial Meeting, held on 27 March 2025, in Ashgabat, Turkmenistan, where foreign ministers reaffirmed their shared commitment to strengthen cooperation across political, economic, energy, and human development sectors. The Ashgabat meeting underscored Brussels’ commitment to strengthening ties beyond specific sectors, paving the way for future strategic partnerships focused on connectivity, digitalisation, environmental sustainability, and resilience.

This renewed engagement occurs as the United States continues to scale back its involvement in Central Asia. The Trump administration, starting in January 2025, significantly cut USAID funding and development programming, diminishing Washington’s influence and creating opportunities for other international actors. As a result, the region has become a critical theater of competition and cooperation among global powers.

During the last month, Central Asian countries themselves have taken notable steps toward unity. On 31 March 2025, the presidents of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan signed the Khujand Declaration, finalising border demarcation and affirming a new era of regional friendship. At the same time, Russia has intensified cultural diplomacy through Rossotrudnichestvo, while China maintains an economic foothold through infrastructure investments.

Geopolitical Scenario

The EU–Central Asia summit in Uzbekistan is a diplomatic milestone in the relations between the Western organisation and the former Soviet states. The European Union now considers Central Asia a priority in its foreign and security policy. Long viewed as a buffer zone between powers, the region has emerged as a strategic partner for Brussels amid shifting geopolitical currents.

With the United States disengaging, the EU is stepping into a more prominent role, offering cooperation frameworks based on green transition, governance reforms, and economic diversification. The Samarkand Climate Forum, held in parallel to the summit, adds symbolic and strategic depth to this effort, with Central Asian governments partnering with the EU on climate diplomacy.

Amid this Western engagement, the Khujand Declaration marks a historic inflection point for Central Asia. The border demarcation agreement among Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan ends decades of low-intensity disputes and sets a precedent for regional solidarity. This internal realignment enhances the EU’s ability to engage the region as a coherent bloc, facilitating multilateral agreements on energy, environment, and security.

Russia continues to assert influence, particularly through soft power. Rossotrudnichestvo, the agency responsible for Russian cultural outreach, has intensified activities across Central Asia, from language education and scholarship programs to media and community events. Although Moscow’s military commitments elsewhere increasingly constrain its hard power, its cultural and linguistic presence remains embedded in these republics’ social fabric.

This growing external engagement is reshaping the region’s geopolitical identity. No longer merely an object of great power rivalry, Central Asia is attempting to asserting its role as an autonomous and strategic actor. Governments in the region are adopting multi-vector foreign policies, balancing ties with Russia, China, the EU, and other global players to maximise their national interests. The Khujand summit, Samarkand Forum, and EU partnerships are all manifestations of this transformation.

The EU’s success will depend on its ability to sustain long-term, fair partnerships. While current efforts emphasise sustainability, connectivity, and education, the challenge will be to institutionalise these priorities and differentiate the EU model from that of Russia or China. If Brussels can combine economic relevance with normative credibility, it stands to become a long-term pillar of Central Asia’s developing geopolitical architecture.

Scenario Risk Assessment

1. Enhanced Strategic Partnership. Looking ahead optimistically, the EU forges strong, lasting partnerships with Central Asian nations, prioritising sustainability, economic diversification, and regional stability. Brussels’ dedication to environmentally friendly partnerships complement Central Asia’s development goals, leading to joint projects in energy, agriculture, and infrastructure. Local governments increasingly integrate their policies with EU frameworks, leading to tangible improvements in governance, human rights, and economic resilience. This partnership strengthens the EU’s geopolitical presence as a counterbalance to Russian and Chinese influence, positioning Central Asia as a key player in a multipolar world.
2. Geopolitical Competition Intensifies. In this more cautious scenario, the competition among global powers escalates as the EU, Russia, and China vie for influence in Central Asia. Despite substantial EU investment, Central Asian governments’ multi-vector foreign policy strains relations with various external partners. This results in a fragmented region where some countries align more closely with China because of its economic investments, while others seek closer ties with Russia for security reasons. Brussels’ diplomatic efforts may yield limited success because of the growing influence of competing powers, leading to instability and fluctuating alliances in Central Asia.
3. Stagnation and Disillusionment. In a pessimistic outlook, the EU’s aspirations in Central Asia face significant setbacks. Internal challenges, such as political instability or economic struggles in member states, may limit Brussels’ capacity to engage meaningfully with the region. Meanwhile, diminishing enthusiasm for reform and development initiatives from Central Asian governments could lead to a stagnant relationship characterised by minimal collaboration. The worsening relations with Washington and the entrenched influences of Moscow and Beijing and Tehran, Ankara, and Gulf Arab monarchies may leave little room for the EU, ultimately relegating it to a peripheral role in Central Asia’s geopolitical landscape. Regional countries might revert to prioritising their own national interests without the support of a cooperative framework, leading to a decline in the EU’s relevance in the region.

Author: Matteo Meloni

*Cover image: EU flags map (Credits: OttavianoUrsu, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons) and Central Asia flags map (Credits: various authors, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

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