Executive Summary

In April 2025, Afghanistan has re-emerged as a critical node in regional and global geopolitics, shaped by intensifying engagement from Russia and China, and potential covert re-entry of US intelligence.

Russia’s upcoming decision to delist the Taliban as a terrorist organisation reflects a recalibrated regional strategy, opening the door to formal diplomatic and economic relations with Afghanistan’s ruling government.

Parallelly, China has deepened its strategic footprint in the Wakhan Corridor, pursuing security and economic objectives. Meanwhile, unverified reports of a CIA visit to Afghanistan underscore latent Western interest in reasserting influence.

These developments reflect a growing contest for strategic positioning in post-withdrawal Afghanistan, with significant implications for regional security dynamics.

Key Takeaways

1. Russia and China are establishing official ties with the Taliban to advance their regional goals and limit Western impact.
2. While unverified, recent reports of increased CIA activity signal a possible shift in US policy toward a more covert role in Afghanistan.
3. Afghanistan is becoming a focal point of strategic competition, with the Taliban exploiting rivalries to bolster its legitimacy and leverage.

Background Information

Following the US withdrawal in 2021, the Taliban merged territorial control and reconstituted governance mechanisms under a theocratic regime. Although not officially recognised, Russia and China, among other regional powers, have kept in touch with the Taliban leadership.

In early 2025, Russia’ General Prosecutor’s Office petitioned the Supreme Court to delist the Taliban as a terrorist organisation. This legal-political manoeuvre reflects Moscow’s intent to expand its influence and economic ties in Afghanistan, which it frames as a stabilising force in Central Asia. Commenting the upcoming Russian decision, Afghan government spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid stated that removing the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations would pave the way for stronger diplomatic and economic relations between the two countries.

Concurrently, the People’s Republic of China has intensified military and intelligence cooperation with the Taliban. Between 8 and 12 January 2025, Chinese military intelligence officials visited the Wakhan Corridor, reportedly to complete joint security coordination frameworks and reinforce border defence mechanisms. The region is critical because of its proximity to Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region (XUAR) and historical use as a transit route for extremist elements.

In April 2025, reports emerged alleging a US C-17A aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base, carrying senior CIA personnel, potentially including Deputy Director John Ratcliffe. Unconfirmed and possibly speculative reports have raised regional concerns about a potential, covert US return to Afghanistan, perhaps tied to containing Iran, Russia, and China in the region and broader intelligence efforts.

Geopolitical Scenario

The strategic environment in Afghanistan is shifting from insurgency-centric security concerns to multi-actor geopolitical competition. Russia seeks to leverage its historical ties and pragmatic diplomacy to carve an influential role. The possibility of legitimising the Taliban by removing them from the Russian terrorist list could foster Moscow-Kabul’s economic ties and regional security, especially in countering the Islamic State Khorasan Province’s (ISKP) influence in Central Asia.

China’s activities in the Wakhan Corridor are driven by security imperatives related to the East Turkestan Islamic Movement (ETIM) and economic interests linked to Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) logistics corridors. The collaboration with the Taliban hints at a long-term goal of turning the corridor into a stable, mutually beneficial area, protected from international threats. Beijing needs a stable Afghanistan to complete its presence in the local mining fields and support also the Chinese-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) by eliminating any potential threat for Islamabad coming from the Afghan territory.

The alleged US visit to Bagram, though unverified, aligns with a broader pattern of strategic intelligence recalibration. The positioning of US military assets in Diego Garcia and increased ISR activities over South Asia suggest a renewed US focus on regional intelligence operations, potentially driven by growing tensions with Tehran and persistent terrorism concerns.

Risk Assessment

1. Stabilisation versus Escalation. Moscow and Beijing’s engagement strategies may foster relative stabilisation but could provoke new proxy dynamics if perceived as exclusionary or if Western actors reassert presence covertly.
2. Terrorist Exploitation. ISKP, a significant destabilising actor, can exploit any friction between Taliban authorities and external stakeholders, especially if the foreign presence seems intrusive.
3. Regional Power Friction. Geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Wakhan Corridor and Bagram, may escalate because of the complex interplay of the US, Russian, and Chinese interests in Afghanistan.
4. Legitimisation Dilemma. Recognising or formally engaging with the Taliban could create diplomatic difficulties for the West, affecting aid, sanctions, and counterterrorism efforts.

Conclusion

Multi-vector competition and tentative steps characterise the strategic trajectory of Afghanistan in 2025 towards regional integration under Taliban rule. Russia’s impending legal decision on Taliban designation and China’s security engagement represent a de facto recognition trend, regardless of formal diplomatic status. The alleged US intelligence presence, while unconfirmed, introduces a latent vector of instability and rivalry.

The most probable outcome in the foreseeable future is a controlled change of regional power dynamics, where the Taliban will manoeuvre between patrons while striving for domestic acceptance. However, if Western intelligence operations occur in Afghanistan, it could provoke conflict, undermine developing cooperation, and strengthen jihadist propaganda.

SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

*Cover image: Flag map of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan under the Taliban (Credits: Afon99, CC BY-SA 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

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