Executive Summary
Recent reports suggest that a US Air Force C-17A transport aircraft landed at Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan for the first time since the 2021 withdrawal. The aircraft allegedly carried senior Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) personnel, with speculation surrounding a visit by Deputy Director John Ratcliffe.
There has no official confirmation or verification of this claim from trustworthy sources and these reports can be part of a misinformation or psychological operation.
The potential reactivation of US intelligence presence in Afghanistan could represent a forward positioning strategy linked not solely to counterterrorism but also to broader geopolitical considerations, especially in relation to Iran. Increased US military deployments to the Indian Ocean, particularly Diego Garcia, coincided with the reported activity amidst growing friction with Iran.
This report, based on local and international sources, aims at investigating recent events surrounding Afghanistan and their influences on the country’s and regional geopolitics.
Key Takeaways
- Alleged CIA activity in Afghanistan remains unconfirmed and lacks verification from primary sources.
- Taliban officials denied the meeting while different analysts contested the credibility of the source.
- A new US presence in Afghanistan alarms regional actors as Russia, China, Pakistan and Iran.
- Recent US military deployments in Diego Garcia show preparations for wider regional contingencies.
Background Information
In the last days, Russian and Afghan media outlets reported the landing of a US C-17A military aircraft at Bagram Air Base, under Taliban control since August 2021. These reports claim the aircraft transported high-level CIA officials, possibly including Deputy Director John Ratcliffe, for undisclosed discussions with Taliban representatives.
Bagram served as a key US military and intelligence hub throughout the two-decade Afghan war. Since the US withdrawal, the Taliban has exercised full control over the installation and previously rejected the notion of its return to US hands.
However, the reported handover—temporary or partial—remains speculative. No verifiable source has confirmed US personnel, nor has there been any official acknowledgment from Washington or Kabul regarding the visit.
The Afghan Voice Agency (AVA), citing recent US Air Force radar analysis of a C-17 (MOOSE59), carrying the reported Deputy CIA Director, refutes earlier speculation that the plane landed in Afghanistan. According to the data, the flight, originating from Kolab, Tajikistan, deactivated its transponder upon entering Afghan airspace to avoid detection, and reactivated it upon entering Pakistani airspace. The aircraft subsequently returned to the United Arab Emirates, concluding a covert mission involving coordination with Pakistani and Tajik authorities. No recorded stop occurred within Afghan territory, contradicting earlier claims of a landing at Bagram Air Base.
Through spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid, the Afghan Taliban firmly rejected these reports, reiterating that they tolerate no US military presence on Afghan soil and labelling such accounts as deliberate misinformation aimed at destabilising public perception.
Geopolitical Scenario
At present, the intelligence concerning the alleged CIA presence at Bagram lacks independent corroboration. Given that local and international media reporting the information are not top-tier intelligence sources, their reports require careful consideration. A CIA leadership visit story could be disinformation or psychological warfare, designed to gauge regional responses or test Taliban unity.
Although yet unconfirmed, these reports deserve attention because of their strategic importance. The concurrent US military posturing in Diego Garcia aligns with a broader deterrence framework targeting Iran. The reactivation of logistical or intelligence nodes in Afghanistan—if substantiated—could serve as an eastern flank in this configuration.
Domestic considerations within the United States, particularly under a Republican-led policy framework, may influence foreign decisions. Recent economic disruptions linked to former President Trump’s fiscal stance have raised concerns over political stability. In such contexts, a more assertive or diversionary foreign posture is historically consistent with efforts to deflect domestic scrutiny.
There is also evidence of developing transactional diplomacy between the US and the Taliban. Recent detainee releases, bounty removals for Haqqani figures, and unofficial dialogues involving former Trump officials suggest that elements within the US administration may explore a functional engagement model with the Taliban, irrespective of formal recognition.
Conclusion
While reports suggest a renewed US intelligence presence at Bagram Air Base, authoritative sources have not verified these claims, and caution is warranted. This narrative emerges amidst escalating US–Iran tensions and significant military deployments to Diego Garcia, showing a potential strategic recalibration by Washington in the region.
Concurrently, Russia is moving towards legitimising the Taliban by considering their removal from its list of terrorist organisations. On 17 April 2025, the Russian Supreme Court will deliberate on this matter, following a request from the Prosecutor General’s Office. This move shows Moscow wants to officially recognise the Taliban and further its interests in the region.
In this complex geopolitical landscape, the interplay between US military strategies, Russian diplomatic manoeuvres, and Chinese economic initiatives will significantly shape Afghanistan’s future trajectory. Continuous monitoring of these developments is essential to comprehend their full implications on regional stability and international relations.
*Last update: 7 April 2025 – Time: 02.00 pm CET
Author: Giuliano Bifolchi
*Cover image: A view of the Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan (Credits: Staff Sgt. Craig Seals, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
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