Executive Summary

The successful implementation of the CASA-1000 energy transmission project represents a critical milestone for regional cooperation in Central Asia. This initiative aims to facilitate the export of surplus hydroelectric power from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan to Afghanistan and Pakistan, enhancing economic growth, regional stability, and international investment opportunities.

However, several geopolitical, economic, and security challenges persist. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan’s border deals could improve relations, but public opposition and sustainability are still worrying. Russia, China, and the United States, as outside powers, invest in the region and impact its energy and trade.

Security risks stemming from instability in Afghanistan may jeopardise the project’s success. Addressing these risks requires strategic regional collaboration, transparent governance, and proactive security measures.

Background Information

Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan recently finalised a long-awaited border agreement, resolving territorial disputes that had persisted for decades. Bishkek and Dushanbe promoted the agreement as a diplomatic success, paving the way for enhanced economic cooperation.

Concurrently, the CASA-1000 project, started in 2016, is nearing its operational phase, with key infrastructure linking the power grids of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan. CASA-1000’s partial operation, scheduled for 2025, will bolster regional energy security and facilitate foreign investment.

On 31 March 2025, a key presidential meeting in Khujand will coincide with the launch of the Sughd-Datka power line (CASA-1000 project), creating an energy bridge between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan. Following successful border negotiations, a Novruz summit in the Fergana Valley will see an agreement signed, marking a new phase of cooperation between Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan.

However, uncertainties remain regarding public reception to the border agreement, water resource management, and external geopolitical pressures.

Why It Matters

The strategic significance of CASA-1000 extends beyond energy trade, as it represents a test case for broader regional cooperation in Central Asia. Success could lead to more infrastructure projects, economic ties, and conflict resolution. Conversely, failure might worsen regional tensions, particularly in water-energy conflicts between Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan.

Afghanistan’s role in the project introduces additional security risks, because of terrorist organisations’ presence and activity in the Afghan territory, such as the Islamic State Wilayat Khorasan (ISKP).

With Russia, China, and the United States all seeking influence in Central Asia’s energy and trade routes, the geopolitical landscape is further complicated.

Risk Assessment

1. Geopolitical Scenario:
   1. CASA-1000 might negatively affect Uzbekistan, since this Central Asian republic relies on water resources for agriculture. Increased hydropower use in upstream states (Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) may strain relations.
   2.  China and Russia could leverage CASA-1000’s success to strengthen their regional initiatives (Belt and Road Initiative, Eurasian Economic Union), while the U.S. might use it to expand its presence.
2. Security Risks:
   1.  Afghanistan’s volatile security environment poses a direct threat to CASA-1000 infrastructure.
   2. The rise of extremist groups in Afghanistan could disrupt energy exports and threaten regional stability.
3. Economic and Political Challenges:
   1. Domestic opposition to border agreements and land swaps could lead to internal unrest in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan and undermine Dushanbe-Bishkek’s relations and participation in the CASA-1000.
   2. The need for significant foreign investment may expose the region to external political influence.

Conclusion

CASA-1000’s success and broader regional stability depend on Central Asian governments’ accurate domestic and foreign policies, including:

• Strengthening security cooperation to protect infrastructure from potential terrorist threats.
• Enhancing transparency in energy trade agreements to build trust among regional actors.
• Managing water-energy disputes to prevent diplomatic friction, particularly with Uzbekistan.
• Engaging local communities to mitigate public opposition to border agreements.
• Diversifying foreign partnerships to avoid excessive dependence on any single global power.

By addressing these challenges, Tajikistan  and Kyrgyzstan can transform CASA-1000 into a foundation for sustained regional integration, economic growth, and geopolitical stability.

SpecialEurasia OSINT Team

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