Executive Summary
This report examines Azerbaijan’s recent escalation of information dissemination strategies, particularly through the Ministry of Defence’s daily reports of alleged Armenian ceasefire violations. Historically, similar narratives have been employed to shape public perception and create a justification framework for strategic manoeuvres.
Given Armenia’s significant concessions in the ongoing peace negotiations, the current trend raises concerns about the broader implications for regional stability. This report incorporates information from local and international sources, along with SpecialEurasia’s earlier reports and field research in the Caucasus.
Key Points
- Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defence is spreading daily allegations of Armenian attacks, despite Yerevan’s proposal for a joint ceasefire investigation mechanism.
- The international community’s failure to respond to Azerbaijan’s military operation against Nagorno-Karabakh has encouraged Baku to act with impunity.
- Internal divisions within Armenia, particularly over constitutional changes and territorial concessions, risk weakened its ability to counter Baku’s actions.
Background Information
Since the finalisation of the Armenia-Azerbaijan peace treaty text on 13 March 2025, Baku has shifted its rhetoric. The Azerbaijani Ministry of Defence has issued daily statements alleging Armenian attacks on Azerbaijani military positions, despite Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s clear directive to the Armenian Ministry of Defence to avoid ceasefire violations. Meanwhile, Armenia has proposed a joint monitoring mechanism to verify ceasefire violations, a proposal that Baku has yet to acknowledge.
Parallel to this, Baku has continued its crackdown on Armenian prisoners, prompting a European Parliament resolution condemning the unjust detentions and calling for sanctions on Azerbaijani officials. Additionally, Azerbaijani state-aligned media have accused Armenia of preparing for a military offensive, despite Armenia’s repeated territorial concessions and efforts to normalise relations.
Azerbaijani media narratives align closely with the statements of President Aliyev, who asserts that the Armenian military build-up demonstrates that Yerevan is preparing for a new war. For several months, the Azerbaijani government has portrayed Armenia as an unreliable actor, citing its ongoing rearmament as a source of concern.
Additionally, President Aliyev has directed criticism towards France, characterising it as a hostile state. Conversely, in light of its demonstrated military disadvantage against Azerbaijan—whose capabilities have been bolstered by defence cooperation with allies such as Turkey and Israel—Armenia is actively seeking to mitigate this disparity through strategic partnerships with Western nations, primarily as a means of deterrence.
Scenario Analysis
Azerbaijan’s Strategic Communication as a Prelude to Military Action
Historically, Azerbaijan has used strategic communication campaigns to justify military developments in its favour. Before the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, Baku similarly reported alleged Armenian attacks, influencing both domestic and international perceptions. The recent increase in such reports appears to be part of a broader narrative aimed at reinforcing the notion of self-defence in the event of future military actions. Despite Armenia’s repeated territorial concessions—including the recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Karabakh and the return of four border villages—Azerbaijan has continued to escalate requests.
The Role of the International Community
Azerbaijan’s military takeover of Nagorno-Karabakh in 2023, after a 9-months blockade, served as a test of international resolve. Western governments, while condemning the ethnic cleansing of Armenians in the region, took no meaningful action to prevent it. This lack of response has emboldened Azerbaijan, reinforcing the perception that it can continue its expansionist policies without consequences. The recent European Parliament resolution calling for sanctions on Azerbaijani officials responsible for human rights violations highlights growing frustration in some Western circles. It also calls on the International Criminal Court to investigate the forced displacement and ethnic cleansing of the Armenian population in Nagorno-Karabakh. MEPs want the EU to suspend the EU-Azerbaijan energy memorandum and make future bilateral agreements conditional on improvements in the respect to human rights, political prisoner releases, and a fair peace deal with Armenia. However, there is no clear indication that these measures will be implemented.
Meanwhile, the United States’ decision to deploy military equipment to Armenia between July and August 2025 could signal a shift in strategic priorities, but whether Washington will intervene in the event of an Azerbaijani offensive remains uncertain.
Beyond the strategic agreement signed between Yerevan and Washington, this development may indicate that US intelligence—evidenced by multiple meetings between the CIA Director William Burns and Britain’s MI6 chief Richard Moore and Prime Minister Pashinyan—assesses a potential Azerbaijani offensive as likely. This concern is further reinforced by Azerbaijan’s rhetoric, which refers to parts of southern Armenia as “Western Azerbaijan”, which as become increasingly assertive.
Similarly, it remains uncertain whether and to what extent the CSTO (Collective Security Treaty Organisation) would intervene. While Yerevan has effectively frozen its membership and withheld its annual financial contribution, the organisation’s General Secretary Imangali Tasmagambetovhas reaffirmed that Armenia remains a full-fledged member with the same rights as other member states.
Unlike the case of Nagorno-Karabakh, where international law was divided between Azerbaijan’s territorial sovereignty and the Armenian population’s right to self-determination, any Azerbaijani military action against Armenia’s sovereign territory would constitute a clear violation of international law.
Armenia’s Internal Political Divisions and Strategic Vulnerability
Armenia’s internal political divisions have severely weakened its strategic position. The Armenian government’s willingness to amend its constitution, dissolve the OSCE Minsk Group, and withdraw lawsuits against Azerbaijan has sparked significant domestic opposition. Former Nagorno-Karabakh officials, including former Nagorno-Karabakh State Minister Artak Beglaryan, threatened legal action against Pashinyan’s government if the lawsuits against Azerbaijan are withdrawn, further complicating Yerevan’s ability to act decisively.
Public dissatisfaction with Pashinyan’s leadership has grown, particularly after his recognition of Azerbaijani sovereignty over Nagorno-Karabakh and the return, last year, of border villages to Azerbaijan. Protests led by the Tavush for Motherland Movement indicate that sections of the Armenian population perceive these concessions as a betrayal. This internal discord limits Armenia’s ability to respond effectively to Azerbaijani provocations, making it an easier target for Baku’s expansionist ambitions.
Conclusion
Azerbaijan’s intensified strategic communication campaign signals a potential escalation in hostilities, following a well-documented pattern of using controversial claims to justify military action. The international community’s weak response to Azerbaijan’s seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh has emboldened Baku, while Armenia’s internal divisions have further weakened its strategic position.
If current trends continue, Baku may launch another offensive under the pretext of self-defence, taking advantage of Armenia’s vulnerability and the West’s reluctance to intervene. Without decisive international action, Armenia’s sovereignty and stability will remain at significant risk. The potential consequences for Europe are also significant. If sanctions are imposed on Azerbaijan’s energy sector, Brussels’ efforts to diversify its gas supply will face considerable challenges.
Author: Silvia Boltuc
*Cover image: Armenian President Nikol Pashinyan and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev (Credits: President.az, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)
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