Executive Summary

Russia’s promoted military alliance, known as the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), plays a significant role in maintaining security and stability in Central Asia and promoting Moscow’s interests in the region.

Composed of Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus, and Armenia, the CSTO functions as a regional military alliance aimed at countering external threats, combating terrorism, and enhancing military cooperation. Simultaneously, this organisation is also part of the Kremlin’s strategy to maintain its presence and control in the post-Soviet space, especially in those regions as the Central Asia that Moscow considers as a part of its blizhnee zarubezhe (near abroad) and lebensraum (vital space).

This report, aimed at assessing the activities of the CSTO in Central Asia, as well as its perspectives and challenges, draws upon local and international sources, the recent interview given by CSTO Secretary General Imangali Tasmagambetov—former Prime Minister of Kazakhstan—to the Kyrgyz media agency Kabar, information from the official CSTO website, and previous SpecialEurasia reports.

CSTO Activities in Central Asia

1. Military Cooperation and Joint Exercises. The CSTO regularly conducts military exercises to enhance operational readiness among member states. Key exercises such as “Indestructible Brotherhood,” “Rubezh” and “Interaction” focus on counterterrorism, border security, and rapid response to emerging threats. These exercises enhance cooperation and coordination among CSTO forces in responding to regional crises.
2. Counterterrorism and Border Security. Central Asia remains vulnerable to terrorist infiltration, particularly from Afghanistan. To counter threats from extremist groups like the Islamic State Khorasan Wilayat (ISKP) whose propaganda and activities directly affect the region and local citizens, the CSTO has boosted intelligence sharing, launched counterterrorism operations, and deployed rapid reaction forces. Joint efforts have helped to counter radicalisation and illicit arms trafficking along porous borders.
3. Crisis Response Mechanisms. The organisation has engaged in crisis management, as seen in its intervention in Kazakhstan, in January 2022, to stabilise the government amid mass protests. In Kazakhstan, for the first time, CSTO officially deployed its peacekeeping forces in Kazakhstan to the country’s political crisis .
4. Cybersecurity and Hybrid Threats. Recognising the growing risk of cyber warfare and hybrid threats, the CSTO has started measures to counteract cyber-attacks and disinformation campaigns. Member states collaborate on securing digital infrastructure and developing frameworks to address emerging technological threats.

Challenges Facing the CSTO in Central Asia

1. Internal Divergences and Geopolitical Constraints. Although CSTO member states share security concerns, their political interests are not uniform. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, for instance, seek to balance their CSTO commitments with relations with China and Western nations. Armenia’s dissatisfaction with CSTO inaction during its conflict with Azerbaijan and Yerevan’s rising military cooperation with the United States highlight internal tensions that undermine collective unity.
2. Threats from Afghanistan and Regional Instability. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan has heightened security concerns in Central Asia. The organisation’s member states remain cautious of spillover effects, including refugee flows, drug trafficking, and terrorist infiltration. The effectiveness of the CSTO in securing Central Asia’s southern borders remains a critical test of its capabilities.
3. Dependence on Russia. Russia plays a dominant role within the military alliance, providing military support and strategic direction. Moscow’s involvement in the Ukraine conflict, however, has stretched its resources and damaged its credibility, prompting concerns about its continued leadership within the organisation. Central Asian states may seek greater autonomy or alternative security arrangements.
4. Limited Economic and Political Leverage. Although several media labelled the organisation as the Moscow’s version of NATO, CSTO lacks strong economic incentives to reinforce security commitments. Economic integration among member states remains weak, limiting the organisation’s ability to exert influence beyond military cooperation. This economic limitation affects long-term cohesion and collective response strategies.

Prospects and Strategic Considerations

• Strengthening Regional Military Capabilities: Enhancing local military capacities within Central Asia will reduce dependency on external support and improve rapid response mechanisms. Heightened military capabilities in the area, coupled with existing disagreements, primarily the border conflict between Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, could significantly escalate geopolitical risks within Central Asia.
• Diversification of Strategic Partnerships: CSTO states may seek closer ties with China through the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) or bilateral agreements to supplement their security architecture. A major SCO involvement in Central Asia might cause a confrontation between Moscow and Beijing, whose consequences will directly affect local governments.
• Institutional Reforms: Addressing internal divergences and enhancing decision-making processes could improve the alliance’s efficiency in responding to crises.
• Expanded Counterterrorism Efforts: Increasing focus on intelligence cooperation, cyber defence, and countering radicalisation will be essential in mitigating security threats. The ISKP and local terrorist groups still threaten Central Asian republics by exploiting the divergencies between the central authorities and local citizens.

Conclusion

The CSTO remains a key security actor in Central Asia, but internal divisions  and geopolitical dynamics constrain its effectiveness and developing regional threats.

While it has successfully conducted military operations and counterterrorism efforts, the organisation must adapt to new challenges, including hybrid warfare, cybersecurity threats, and the shifting power balance in Eurasia.

The future of Collective Security Treaty Organisation’s role in Central Asia will depend on its ability to reform, strengthen unity among member states, and respond proactively to emerging security threats. A resolution of the Ukraine conflict between the Kremlin and Washington could be advantageous to the CSTO, considering its strong links to Moscow’s foreign and defence policy and weapons export.

Geopolitical Report ISSN 2785-2598 Volume 51 Issue 9
SpecialEurasia OSINT Unit

*Picture: 2024 Astana CSTO Summit (Credits: Kremlin.ru, CC BY 4.0, via Wikimedia Commons)

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