Persian Files ISSN 2975-0598 Volume 29 Issue 6
Author: Silvia Boltuc
Executive Summary
This report examines the geopolitical dynamics between Iran and Afghanistan, focusing on shared challenges and opportunities in the areas of water management, security, and migration. The ongoing dispute over the Helmand River’s water allocation represents a critical element of their relationship. Bilateral discussions have gained momentum, with both nations expressing commitments to strengthen cooperation.
Key Takeaways
- The Helmand River dispute remains a focal point of tension, with Afghanistan’s upstream water management significantly affecting Iran’s water security.
- Iranian initiatives aim to address water shortages in the drought-prone Sistan-Baluchestan region, relying on sustainable solutions with Afghanistan’s cooperation.
- Human activities, including dam construction and water diversion projects in Afghanistan, have intensified environmental degradation, leading to migration and further regional instability.
- Iran has positioned itself as a regional mediator, leveraging its diplomatic engagement to maintain influence and mitigate threats along its borders.
Information Context
On January 26th, 2025, Iran’s Foreign Minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi, heading a political-economic delegation to Afghanistan, met with the Acting Prime Minister of Afghanistan, Mawlawi Mohammad Hassan Akhund. The resolution of these issues is essential for regional stability and mutual prosperity.
Over decades, Iran and Afghanistan have struggled to enforce water-sharing agreements, including the 1973 Helmand Water Treaty, which allocated 820 million cubic meters annually to Iran. Afghanistan’s construction of dams and water diversion channels, including the Kajaki Dam, Arghandab, and Kamal Khan projects, as well as channels like Seraj, Boghra, Qala Fatah, and Lashkari, have drastically reduced the Helmand River’s flow.
These actions have led to the desiccation of the Hamoun International Wetlands, causing severe ecological and economic impacts. Strong winds (known as 120-day winds) now carry dust from the exposed lakebed, threatening agricultural productivity and forcing migration. Additionally, historical events, such as the 1896 flood that shifted the river channel westward, created a new river route known as Parian, which later became part of the Iran-Afghanistan border.
Geopolitical Scenario
Local Scenario
The Helmand River Basin is critical for Iran’s Sistan-Baluchestan Province and Afghanistan’s south-eastern regions. Iranian efforts to mitigate water scarcity include domestic water-saving initiatives and international engagement. Kabul’s infrastructure projects, while beneficial for its development, have reduced water flows into Iran, leading to environmental and economic stress. Both countries face mutual challenges, including managing migration and securing borders against terrorism.
Regional Scenario
The dispute over the Helmand River reflects broader regional water management issues across South Asia and the Middle East. Transboundary water basins, such as the Helmand , highlight the need for cooperative frameworks to balance resource allocation and environmental preservation. Tehran seeks to stabilise its eastern border while enhancing ties with Kabul to mitigate shared threats, including extremism and refugee crises.
The Islamic Republic has also positioned itself as a regional mediator, offering its capital as a venue for talks between key players with conflicting interests in Afghanistan. This includes hosting discussions between the Taliban interim government and the head of the National Resistance Front, Ahmad Massoud, in 2022, as well as facilitating talks between Eurasian powers with vested interests in the region. Despite the Taliban Sunni-led government’s hostility toward Shia minorities, Iran has sought to play a constructive role to prevent instability along its borders, already affected by illegal migration, drug smuggling, and terrorism.
Both Kabul and Tehran face a shared threat from the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), with the group posing a significant challenge to security in Afghanistan and beyond. Tehran has emerged as a vital actor in the fight against the Islamic State, being one of the countries most affected by its activities.
Economic Developments
Lately, there have been bilateral economic advancements between Afghanistan and Iran, including agreements on the Chabahar Transit Project, the establishment of the Iran-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, and enhanced rail connectivity via the Khaf-Herat railway.
Iran’s focus on infrastructural investment in Afghanistan aims to bolster trade routes, alleviate regional economic pressures, and support Afghanistan’s connectivity to global markets. Tehran’s diplomatic engagement with Kabul has been cautious yet strategically oriented, aiming to safeguard its interests despite the Taliban’s ideological stance.
With an estimated Afghan migrant population of 3.8 to 5 million within its borders, Iran faces significant socio-economic pressures from Afghan immigration. Economic strain, compounded by sanctions, has fuelled anti-migrant rhetoric. Tehran has actively pursued the establishment of a joint trade zone between Iran and Afghanistan in the Khorasan region, underlining its willingness to stabilise relations and borders by fostering economic cooperation and promoting trade.
International Scenario
Global entities such as the Ramsar Convention and regional actors like Pakistan observe the Helmand Basin’s geopolitical sensitivity. International support could facilitate technical solutions and mediate disputes, ensuring equitable water sharing while maintaining regional security. Furthermore, as climate variability exacerbates water shortages, global climate initiatives could play a role in fostering sustainable practices.
Key Actors and Relationships
- Iran: Prioritises water security and regional stability, advocating for the full implementation of existing agreements.
- Afghanistan: Seeks to assert sovereignty over its natural resources while emphasising goodwill and religious ties with Iran.
- Pakistan: Shares minor stakes in the Helmand Basin and monitors developments for potential ripple effects on its water resources.
- International Organisations: The Ramsar Convention and UNEP emphasise preserving ecosystems dependent on the Helmand Basin.
Conclusions
The Helmand River dispute underscores the fragility of Iran-Afghanistan relations and its potential to destabilise the region if left unresolved. Water security is an existential priority for Iran, particularly for the drought-prone Sistan-Baluchestan Province, where environmental degradation and migration threaten the social fabric and economic stability. However, unilateral actions without regional coordination could exacerbate tensions, undermining the potential for long-term stability and cooperation.
The issue is not only bilateral but also regional and global, reflecting the interconnected challenges of water scarcity, climate change, migration, and security. The Helmand River dispute is emblematic of broader tensions in transboundary water management, where national interests often collide with environmental preservation and regional stability. Failure to address these challenges may lead to heightened instability, increased migration flows, and even violent confrontations, compounding the humanitarian and economic crises facing both nations.
Moreover, the dispute cannot be separated from the broader geopolitical landscape, including the shared threat posed by ISKP, illegal trafficking, and terrorism, as well as the socio-economic pressures from large Afghan migrant populations in Iran. Despite ideological and sectarian differences, Iran and Afghanistan have a vested interest in finding common ground to address these overlapping challenges.
Picture: Aerial photograph of Helmand River at Gereshk (Credits: Karla Marshall, Public domain, via Wikimedia Commons)
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